ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2701 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:47 pm

Hammy wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
Hammy wrote:Big dry slot opening up just outside the eyewall. Any chance Florence has leveled off and will weaken from here?

Most recent microwave at 18z doesn't indicate any shear or EWRC affecting her. Still need to wait and see

https://i.imgur.com/OVpXn5n.jpg

Image is four hours old, and the northern eyewall doesn't look as solid as the rest, and the northern outer circulation was drier. It looks like that forming low in the NE Atlantic may have injected a bit of dry air that's now rotated around to the south.

It’s common for a TC to go through convective cycles and mix in/out dry at times. Nothing will significantly weaken her until she hits cooler water and increasing shear. Thus I won’t make a weakening call unless the pattern persists for 6 hours
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2702 Postby Macrocane » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:48 pm

Appears as though Florence is starting to evacuate some of the deep convection. Fresh dry air in the eastern eye wall.

Just kidding :lol:

I remember this type of discussions during Ike, when it never "recovered" from Cuba landfall but it kept getting bigger and bigger in size and look what it did, it was the 2nd costliest hurricane at the time. I'm not saying Florence won't intensify but even if the dry air or whatever keeps it from doing it it's a serious situation, a category 2 or even 1 (Sandy) can cause a very serious flood event because of their size and the long time it will stall.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2703 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:50 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

If you are talking about that open space 130 miles West of the eye, that will not have any effect on this system. Definitely no dry air getting into the center of her, she has her shields on full force.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2704 Postby robbielyn » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:52 pm

Maryellen46 wrote:
wayoutfront wrote:
Maryellen46 wrote:And from what I’ve read a LOT of people are defying the evacuation orders and these people have the means to leave.


People on the EC of NC are painfully unaware that they haven't experienced a land falling hurricane in a very long time ..

If you talk to them they leave you with the impression that they are very experienced with hurricanes ....NC hasnt experienced one like this in 60 years .....I honestly cant remember the last direct hit NC (not counting the outer banks )had from the right side of a Hurricane ...much less a Major .....This could very well be an combination of Hazel and a Floyd ........or not ..but only a fool will take their chances....having a Hurricane party in TS force winds ...just isnt gojng to happen Thursday like they are used too

They interviewed a guy who was originally from Boston on CNN and said since he was in blizzards that produced 2-3 feet of snow, he could handle storm surge since snow was harder to deal with than water.

WOW!!!!!! if he said he had been buried in an avalanche and survived, he may have a semi quasi case. well on second thoughts he is in for. a rude awakening. i hope he brought his life jacket and rubber ducky :roll:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2705 Postby aperson » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:53 pm

regarding the lopsided CDO in the SW quad:

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1039641997047459841




Also helps to get a more zoomed out look so you can see the PV interaction: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2706 Postby robbielyn » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:54 pm

Blinhart wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

If you are talking about that open space 130 miles West of the eye, that will not have any effect on this system. Definitely no dry air getting into the center of her, she has her shields on full force.

one of the tweets said it was sneaky sw sheer. u can see some of the tops blowing off, it’s not weakening her but not allowing for more RI either.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2707 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:01 pm

AF308 mission #9 into Florence. Status: En Route according to tropical tidbits site.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2708 Postby seahawkjd » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:05 pm

From the NWS Briefing out of Morehead City, NC

Image
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Gloria, Hugo, Emily, Bertha, Bonnie, Dennis (twice), Fran, Floyd, Isabel, Irene, Arthur, Matthew, Florence, Dorian (and many tropical storms and nor'easters).

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2709 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:05 pm

Cloudtops cooling again

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2710 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:06 pm

Should have a fresh microwave pass in about an hour when recon is in there. We are going to learn a lot about Florence in the next couple hours.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2711 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:19 pm

New microwave pass at 2220z confirms temporary dry air intrusion. No EWRC yet

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2712 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:19 pm

Hammy wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
Hammy wrote:Big dry slot opening up just outside the eyewall. Any chance Florence has leveled off and will weaken from here?

Most recent microwave at 18z doesn't indicate any shear or EWRC affecting her. Still need to wait and see

https://i.imgur.com/OVpXn5n.jpg


Image is four hours old, and the northern eyewall doesn't look as solid as the rest, and the northern outer circulation was drier. It looks like that forming low in the NE Atlantic may have injected a bit of dry air that's now rotated around to the south.


Still has PLENTY of time to get a bit more stronger with those hot water temps
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2713 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:20 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Can anyone think of any historical hurricanes that did what the 12z Euro and 18z GFS are showing? The only one that is somewhat similar that I can find is Betsy in 1965 but she was much farther south.


They do this quite often at that latitude when there are two ridges with a weakness between.
At 30 degrees north they escape to the northeast around the eastern high.
Weatherman 57 talked about this back at 5 PM couple pages ago.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2714 Postby JBCycloneStan » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:26 pm

That seems like quite the dry air infusion, but the northern part of the system has cooling cloud tops... Any idea on if and when Flo can mix out the dry air?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2715 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:26 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm glad I'm not a hurricane forecaster trying to figure out what Florence will do as it nears the NC coast. Wait, I am a hurricane forecaster! Shoot. My track doesn't look anything like the NHC track. I think the good forecasters there are scratching their heads too after seeing the latest EC & ensembles. They'll adjust the track southward overnight. I have it stalling near Cape Fear then moving west just inside the SC/NC border. No south of west movement, yet...


Do you see any way it could move further north before stalling like the OBX?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2716 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:31 pm

I see my earlier fear that there could be a stall then a WSW motion along the SC Coast got picked up by the ECM at the 12z run. That would be catastrophic!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2717 Postby MrStormX » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:32 pm

There are lots of people on youtube live streaming their evacuation efforts. One woman is digging a trench in her yard. :eek:

It's amazing how different the landscape is today compared to even 4 or 5 years ago when it comes to social media and tropical cyclones.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2718 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:35 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Note that the Cone has shifted back south again to the GA/SC border. Still some uncertainty IMO on where exactly the track lies, the stall and if there is a true WSW motion as the ECM and GFS indicate. If that happens just offshore upper SC Coast and then moves WSW then the ramifications are going to change wholeheartedly!


That is because the 66.7% past 5 year error circle at their final position (well inland) is quite large. Look at the narrow part of the cone that takes it to landfall. It extends from the upper SC coast north to Cape Hatteras. That's the area at most risk for a landfall.


Yea, I knew that but they had shifted the 5 day cone part northward up the SC Coast past Charleston, they then started the shift back south.

I see they shifted the cone well west into GA now. I think uncertainty is still there after those 12z runs of the ECM and its ENS.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2719 Postby sbcc » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:40 pm

MrStormX wrote:There are lots of people on youtube live streaming their evacuation efforts. One woman is digging a trench in her yard. :eek:

It's amazing how different the landscape is today compared to even 4 or 5 years ago when it comes to social media and tropical cyclones.


The proliferation of handheld devices and wireless broadband is truly a double edged sword sometimes.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2720 Postby dukeblue219 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:40 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I see they shifted the cone well west into GA now. I think uncertainty is still there after those 12z runs of the ECM and its ENS.


FYI, the 18z GFS and GFS FV3 also support the NC fake out with landfall around Charleston.
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