ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

[jdjaguar]

Just woke up to check on the NHC and all I could do was literally cover my mouth with my hand. This is going to be a cat5 at landfall isn't it.............

Very possible. System is still strengthening per Latest NHC reports.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1049968328410828802

[GCANE]

Eye getting smaller, 16 NM
Still open on the south
Eye dewpoint 15C at 700mb


Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 9:49:05Z
Center Fix Coordinates: 28.58N 86.48W
938mb (27.70 inHg)

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 122kts (~ 140.4mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSE (155°) from the flight level center at 9:52:06Z

[NDG]

The continues lightning in the eyewall is incredible.

[tolakram]

000
URNT12 KWBC 101008
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/09:49:05Z
B. 28.58 deg N 086.48 deg W
C. NA
D. 938 mb
E. 210 deg 02 kt
F. OPEN S
G. C16
H. 121 kt
I. 010 deg 9 nm 09:46:34Z
J. 091 deg 118 kt
K. 007 deg 11 nm 09:46:09Z
L. 96 kt
M. 155 deg 12 nm 09:52:05Z
N. 265 deg 122 kt
O. 155 deg 12 nm 09:52:06Z
P. 15 C / 2469 m
Q. 22 C / 2457 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1414A MICHAEL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 122 KT 155 / 12 NM 09:52:06Z

[Andy_L]

The continues lightning in the eyewall is incredible.

Do you have a link to be able to see this please NDG?

[meriland29]

Just woke up to check on the NHC and all I could do was literally cover my mouth with my hand. This is going to be a cat5 at landfall isn't it.............

Very possible. System is still strengthening per Latest NHC reports.

I literally can't sleep now that it is so close. Watching the live feeds on TWC and on here. Its all good, i got 4 hrs of sleep LOL. (Starts pot of coffee). I also noticed a lot of my online news sources still thinks that Taylor Swifts VMA wins and other articles are more important..

Unbelievable.....

It disgusts me to see the emmense amount of coverage on Irma last year and those same news sources keeping this possible cat5 at Panama Beach in a few hours on the backburner.

[NDG]

AF recon currently doing SW-NE pass, will be interesting to see how stronger the NE quadrant has gotten since the last pass 4 hours ago.

[USTropics]

The continues lightning in the eyewall is incredible.

Do you have a link to be able to see this please NDG?

You can do this over at WeatherNerds (https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/), create a box over the area you want to zoom in on with the mouse, then click zoom in. You can animate it as well.

[tolakram]

The continues lightning in the eyewall is incredible.

Do you have a link to be able to see this please NDG?

On the COD page turn on the GOES 16 lightning overlay: GLM FLashes. Link with it on provided after the image below.



https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-10-1&checked=map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

[meriland29]

000
URNT12 KWBC 101008
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/09:49:05Z
B. 28.58 deg N 086.48 deg W
C. NA
D. 938 mb
E. 210 deg 02 kt
F. OPEN S
G. C16
H. 121 kt
I. 010 deg 9 nm 09:46:34Z
J. 091 deg 118 kt
K. 007 deg 11 nm 09:46:09Z
L. 96 kt
M. 155 deg 12 nm 09:52:05Z
N. 265 deg 122 kt
O. 155 deg 12 nm 09:52:06Z
P. 15 C / 2469 m
Q. 22 C / 2457 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1414A MICHAEL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 122 KT 155 / 12 NM 09:52:06Z

Isn't that down from 130kts a few hrs ago????

[Kazmit]

000
URNT12 KWBC 101008
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/09:49:05Z
B. 28.58 deg N 086.48 deg W
C. NA
D. 938 mb
E. 210 deg 02 kt
F. OPEN S
G. C16
H. 121 kt
I. 010 deg 9 nm 09:46:34Z
J. 091 deg 118 kt
K. 007 deg 11 nm 09:46:09Z
L. 96 kt
M. 155 deg 12 nm 09:52:05Z
N. 265 deg 122 kt
O. 155 deg 12 nm 09:52:06Z
P. 15 C / 2469 m
Q. 22 C / 2457 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1414A MICHAEL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 122 KT 155 / 12 NM 09:52:06Z

Isn't that down from 130kts a few hrs ago????

It was never 130kts. 120kts is the highest it's been.

[USTropics]

Isn't that down from 130kts a few hrs ago????

It hasn't reached 150 mph (130kts * 1.15 = mph)

[meriland29]

000
URNT12 KWBC 101008
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/09:49:05Z
B. 28.58 deg N 086.48 deg W
C. NA
D. 938 mb
E. 210 deg 02 kt
F. OPEN S
G. C16
H. 121 kt
I. 010 deg 9 nm 09:46:34Z
J. 091 deg 118 kt
K. 007 deg 11 nm 09:46:09Z
L. 96 kt
M. 155 deg 12 nm 09:52:05Z
N. 265 deg 122 kt
O. 155 deg 12 nm 09:52:06Z
P. 15 C / 2469 m
Q. 22 C / 2457 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1414A MICHAEL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 122 KT 155 / 12 NM 09:52:06Z

Isn't that down from 130kts a few hrs ago????

It was never 130kts. 120kts is the highest it's been.

This was a post a few hours back.

"000
URNT12 KNHC 100919
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/09:04:10Z
B. 28.44 deg N 086.50 deg W
C. 700 mb 2585 m
D. 940 mb
E. 150 deg 33 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 108 kt
I. 113 deg 12 nm 09:00:30Z
J. 200 deg 130 kt
K. 115 deg 14 nm 09:00:00Z
L. 106 kt
M. 305 deg 7 nm 09:06:30Z
N. 016 deg 94 kt
O. 305 deg 7 nm 09:06:30Z
P. 12 C / 3048 m
Q. 19 C / 3046 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 1314A MICHAEL OB 16
MAX FL WIND 130 KT 115 / 14 NM 09:00:00Z"

[Centralflamama]

Just woke up to check on the NHC and all I could do was literally cover my mouth with my hand. This is going to be a cat5 at landfall isn't it.............

Very possible. System is still strengthening per Latest NHC reports.

I literally can't sleep now that it is so close. Watching the live feeds on TWC and on here. Its all good, i got 4 hrs of sleep LOL. (Starts pot of coffee). I also noticed a lot of my online news sources still thinks that Taylor Swifts VMA wins and other articles are more important..

Unbelievable.....

It disgusts me to see the emmense amount of coverage on Irma last year and those same news sources keeping this possible cat5 at Panama Beach in a few hours on the backburner.

I have been feeling the same way, I wasn’t sure if it was due to the fact we were in the cone for Irma that we were so tuned in..? Unfortunately, a lot of those little areas along the coast in that area seem very vulnerable in terms of the structures. It’s been a few years since I’ve been to apalachicola but I remember it being very “old Florida” if that makes sense? Lots of people probably didn’t leave based off the folks I know from the area.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NDG]

The eyewall will be very close to this buoy, over the next couple of hours. Already reporting waves 27-30 feet high!!!!



https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42039

[USTropics]

Isn't that down from 130kts a few hrs ago????

It was never 130kts. 120kts is the highest it's been.

This was a post a few hours back.

"000
URNT12 KNHC 100919
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/09:04:10Z
B. 28.44 deg N 086.50 deg W
C. 700 mb 2585 m
D. 940 mb
E. 150 deg 33 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 108 kt
I. 113 deg 12 nm 09:00:30Z
J. 200 deg 130 kt
K. 115 deg 14 nm 09:00:00Z
L. 106 kt
M. 305 deg 7 nm 09:06:30Z
N. 016 deg 94 kt
O. 305 deg 7 nm 09:06:30Z
P. 12 C / 3048 m
Q. 19 C / 3046 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 1314A MICHAEL OB 16
MAX FL WIND 130 KT 115 / 14 NM 09:00:00Z"

I believe that VDM with the closed low was right after a NE pass, which we should soon get here again (the current VDM was after the N-S pass).

[Kazmit]

I think it's interesting that this is at the same latitude as Leslie.

[meriland29]

I didn't realize they posted those VDMs until thet completed all data for flight...