ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

NOAA recon pass showing FL winds up around 135 kt now...

[txwatcher91]

NOAA recon pass showing FL winds up around 135 kt now...

He’s making a run for cat 5 I believe...

[northjaxpro]

Such a horrible situation. The best we can hope for is landfall east of Panama City so that the most populated areas don't take the full blow of the core winds. Thankfully it stays far enough west of Tallahassee to keep them from experiencing the worst case for that area.

This is not accurate. Tallahassee will be on the cyclone's right front quadrant when landfall occurs. The right front quadrant is the strongest and worst side of the storm other than the actual eyewall itself.

Tallahassee will see very damaging winds over hurricane force gusts and possible tornadoes, along with heavy rain squalls upon Michael's approach..As a matter of fact, they may see widespread tree damage and power outages worst than what Hermine did to them.a couple of years ago.

[tolakram]

Yes from a scale of damage standpoint if you have to have a at 4 or 5 strike anywhere this is one of the few spots where a storm can thread the needle without hitting a major population center. Gut feeling is Panama City Proper stays on the western eyewall, but they will certainly have damage. Gulf, liberty and Calhoun stand to take most of the right front quadrant...some of the least populated counties in the state save for Glades and a couple others around the big bend. Again, that’s no consolation to the folks that do live there. But if Leon or escambia county was about to be raked by a high end cat 4 eye wall there would be mass destruction

It's still slightly west of the track.

[meriland29]

What is (roughly) 135kt FL in terms of Surface Level?

[xironman]

Looks like a reasonable change for Panama to get the egewall, what quadrant t still a little too early to say but needs close watching.

The sfwmd radar site https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions shows it slowly going left of the NHC track

[wx98]

NOAA recon pass showing FL winds up around 135 kt now...

He’s making a run for cat 5 I believe...

Certainly trying. Don’t know if it will make it, but I can see 150 mph as a peak, pressure down in the 920s.

[wx98]

What is (roughly) 135kt FL in terms of Surface Level?

The 90% reduction yields 121.5 kt.

[KWT]

NOAA recon pass showing FL winds up around 135 kt now...

He’s making a run for cat 5 I believe...

Wow that is insane winds at FL, I think NHC has to go to 125kts based on the observations from both planes.

Wonder what the pressure will do...

[NDG]

Eye is closed again.

URNT12 KNHC 101112
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/10:50:40Z
B. 28.81 deg N 086.34 deg W
C. 700 mb 2540 m
D. 936 mb
E. 210 deg 24 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C18
H. 104 kt
I. 242 deg 12 nm 10:40:00Z
J. 327 deg 104 kt
K. 241 deg 14 nm 10:39:30Z
L. 125 kt
M. 031 deg 9 nm 10:53:30Z
N. 135 deg 128 kt
O. 036 deg 12 nm 10:54:30Z
P. 17 C / 3042 m
Q. 19 C / 3045 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 1314A MICHAEL OB 23
MAX FL WIND 130 KT 115 / 14 NM 09:00:00Z

[BlueWater36]

Can anyone recommend a way to find live storm surge measurements?


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[DestinHurricane]

looks like it needs to start moving NE soon or its going to landfall closer to my home

[supercane4867]

Waking up with a strengthening CAT4. Visible satellite should come out in a hour

[PTPatrick]

Yes from a scale of damage standpoint if you have to have a at 4 or 5 strike anywhere this is one of the few spots where a storm can thread the needle without hitting a major population center. Gut feeling is Panama City Proper stays on the western eyewall, but they will certainly have damage. Gulf, liberty and Calhoun stand to take most of the right front quadrant...some of the least populated counties in the state save for Glades and a couple others around the big bend. Again, that’s no consolation to the folks that do live there. But if Leon or escambia county was about to be raked by a high end cat 4 eye wall there would be mass destruction

It's still slightly west of the track.

https://i.imgur.com/r0xLxbK.gif

Yeah I see that. I’m traveling so haven’t had time to read back and check radars. It’s a tough call...eyewall is eyewall though and Bay county is going to get smacked badly regardless. PC and Tyndall afb May well see some clear eye time which will be a blessing for the brave souls that stayed.

[AlabamaDave]

Such a horrible situation. The best we can hope for is landfall east of Panama City so that the most populated areas don't take the full blow of the core winds. Thankfully it stays far enough west of Tallahassee to keep them from experiencing the worst case for that area.

This is not accurate. Tallahassee will be on the cyclone's right front quadrant when landfall occurs. The right front quadrant is the strongest and worst side of the storm other than the actual eyewall itself.

Tallahassee will see very damaging winds over hurricane force gusts and possible tornadoes, along with heavy rain squalls upon Michael's approach..As a matter of fact, they may see widespread tree damage and power outages worst than what Hermine did to them.a couple of years ago.

Yes, that's horrible, but I'm hoping it stays far enough west to keep Tallahassee out of the very worst winds.

[NDG]

Actual pressure is probably down to around 934mb because of the 24 knots reported by the dropsonde.

[tolakram]

Shelter in place starting, time to evacuate is over for many now.

 https://twitter.com/BayCountyEM/status/1049982174458331136

[DestinHurricane]

What will be the likely impacts 1 county west of bay county Walton county. Im still here

[supercane4867]

This could be the strongest US landfall since Charley, or even Andrew

[dukeblue219]

NOAA plane just dropped in the Eastern eyewall... Mean wind in lowest 500m was 135kt and surface was 103kt. Peak 153kt aloft... Every pass continues to show strengthening.