ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Florence is well on its way to become a CAT4 wayyy out in the central Atlantic and with at least three named storms coming within a week or two. So much for all those season cancelled forecasts...

[plasticup]

Florence would seem to be flipping the bird to the alleged shear. Storms' habit of doing that this year is why I (and perhaps NHC) overestimated Gordon, while he turned out to struggle at the slightest puff. Is it because it was such a small system compared to Florence (or Lane or Olivia in the EPAC?).

I really liked the NHC reasoning that their shear measurements are sampled over a large area, and a small storm like Florence might actually be in a low-shear environment embedded within their larger "high-shear" sample area. We just don't have enough resolution in our data to prove it. She is a humbling reminder of the limits of our technology.

[Yellow Evan]

With complete B ring and WMG eye, this is a T6.0.

[plasticup]

With complete B ring and WMG eye, this is a T6.0.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1037350335700983808



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1037323590713192448



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1037330232095727622



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1037345297507266560



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1037345758498971649

[RL3AO]

The first tweet of that bunch is probably the most important. We have a typhoon near Japan that is going to make significant impacts to the mid-latitude steering flow for a hurricane in the middle of the Atlantic. The models are all over the place because this is an extremely complex situation. Probably a lot more complex than normal.

[WAcyclone]

Finally got a good microwave pass of Florence:

[supercane4867]

Solid CAT4 now.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 120 kt for the intensity right now. Are there any other cat 4's on record east of 50W and north of 20N?

[CrazyC83]

TXNT21 KNES 051809
TCSNTL

A. 06L (FLORENCE)

B. 05/1745Z

C. 22.4N

D. 46.1W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING IN
A DT OF 6.0 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT AGREE. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[supercane4867]

AL, 06, 2018090518, , BEST, 0, 224N, 462W, 115, 953, HU

[EquusStorm]

Unreal. Expecting a weakening tropical storm, getting a category four. Glad it's being weird in the middle of nowhere... fooooor now. Grateful for the ACE production though.

[shiny-pebble]

Wow, what an impressive storm. I thought we'd only see maybe 1 major, in the high subtropics. Now we're approching Cat 4 status. This proves you should never write off a season.

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[floridasun78]

look like move nw now

[BensonTCwatcher]

The 10-day EC ensembles from Maue's website tell a different story from the 5-day that Levi posted. True, Florence will have to avoid several opportunities to recurve prior to reaching the East U.S. Coast, but we can't be certain it will recurve east of the U.S. yet. GFS ensembles favor recurve east of the U.S.

Wow one thig that looks to verify is a lot possible outcomes between 55W and 65W. A lot of "S" curves in the track at 10 days.

[ava_ati]

Eye wall starting to tilt NE, she is feeling the shear now

[abajan]

Mighty interesting discussion by Mark Sudduth. (The Florence related stuff starts at 5:50.)

[Nimbus]

12z GFS has a 920MB monster headed for north atlantic after missing Bermuda on the inside.

[DioBrando]

TropTidbits say the machine is now a 115 knot C4...

[ava_ati]

12z GFS has a 920MB monster headed for north atlantic after missing Bermuda on the inside.

Interesting enough the only difference I see in the models is the interaction with the remnants of Gordon and the high pressure ridge coming out of Canada. The GFS the remnants clear a path for Flo to follow it, the Euro has almost no interaction and high pressure fills in as fast as Gordon's leftovers move through.