ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[jdjaguar]

NAVGEM is rarely correct.

Good to hear.

Nonetheless, Not letting my guard down until Flo is 30.5 degrees N and heading N/ NW
(Preferably NE for our Carolina brethren)

[Ken711]

Recon finds it down to 24.2N still losing latitude. Keep an eye out for continued wsw motion while this ridge builds in. Typically you see wsw ush motion . Today is key. Models will shift if florence dies not turn wnw.

Do you mean forecast models may move south at landfall?

[northjaxpro]

Always entertaining, the 06z NAVGEM has a major hurricane headed for St Augustine/JAX area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018090906&fh=144

robust flat ridge to the north, solution makes sense per the overall pattern but does the ridge look like that on approach, areas to the south of current landfall proijections need to be on guard, these models rarely verify this far out

Exactly!

[jlauderdal]

NAVGEM is rarely correct.

it might be too far south but i wouldnt throw out its idea of a stronger ridge than the gfs and euro are seeing...doesnt take much additional ridging to keep the system 100-200 miles south of the current forecast which is well within the 5 day error

[Steve]

NAMs position at 12z is much farther north, but the ridge over the top is much stronger than any of the last several runs.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0906&fh=90

[tarheelprogrammer]

NAM model coming in similar to the ECMWF and the CMC, more ridging

[Blown Away]

NAM model coming in similar to the ECMWF and the CMC, more ridging

12z NAM... A bit N of 06z... The ridging stronger on 12z... Seems to turn more W at 84 hours...

[Hurricaneman]

For those that say Florida is in the clear, there are still models and some Euro ensembles that hit Florida so from Daytona Beach to Hatteras needs to continue watching this

[MrJames]

From the 11AM discussion

Florence continues moving slowly westward, caught between a pair
of mid-level ridges over the Atlantic Ocean. A very strong ridge is
forecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few
days, which should steer Florence west-northwestward at a much
faster forward speed. By Wednesday, the hurricane should turn
northwestward, and slow down somewhat due to another ridge forming
over the Ohio Valley. It is interesting to note that while the
ensemble means from the ECMWF and UKMET are west of the NHC
forecast, the strongest members are on the right side of their
ensemble envelope. Thus, the new NHC track forecast is very similar
to the previous one, and continues to lie between the corrected
consensus and consensus aids. The Ohio Valley ridge is concerning
because Florence could stop moving pretty quickly around day 5,
potentially leading to a serious heavy rain episode and inland flood
hazard.

[jdjaguar]

For those that say Florida is in the clear, there are still models and some Euro ensembles that hit Florida so from Daytona Beach to Hatteras needs to continue watching this

Per the NHC 11:00 Discussion, North Florida/GA have been removed as areas of concern. Now states interests from South Carolina to the MidAtlantic.

[Happy Pelican]

For those that say Florida is in the clear, there are still models and some Euro ensembles that hit Florida so from Daytona Beach to Hatteras needs to continue watching this

Per the NHC 11:00 Discussion, North Florida/GA have been removed as areas of concern. Now states interests from South Carolina to the MidAtlantic.

I noticing NJ seems to be inching closer. Ugh.

[toad strangler]

12z ICON starting a decent shift N over 06z through 36 hours

[tarheelprogrammer]

ICON model has shifted north and the ridge is weaker. How reliable is the ICON model?

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM is rarely correct.

The NAVGEM is useful to know where the storm is likely not going to go.

[KWT]

ICON model has shifted north and the ridge is weaker. How reliable is the ICON model?

From what I've seen it is ok, but not as good as the big models so to speak.

[tolakram]

If you've started looking at models you've never heard of before then you're doing it wrong.

[tarheelprogrammer]

If you've started looking at models you've never heard of before then you're doing it wrong.

I have heard of the ICON, but I have no clue how reliable it is. Hopefully it is VERY reliable.

[hohnywx]

ICON model has shifted north and the ridge is weaker. How reliable is the ICON model?

Definitely in the second tier of modeling.

[MrJames]

For those that say Florida is in the clear, there are still models and some Euro ensembles that hit Florida so from Daytona Beach to Hatteras needs to continue watching this

Per the NHC 11:00 Discussion, North Florida/GA have been removed as areas of concern. Now states interests from South Carolina to the MidAtlantic.

Chances of Flo coming here are going down but I wouldn't say we're out of it just yet. We aren't in an area of concern based on the current forecast. If there is a huge shift to the west, we could be an area of concern again in future forecasts. Too far out for us to be in the clear with a storm that is still losing latitude.

[TheProfessor]

The Navgem isn't a good model, however in my experience it's like the GFS where it typically has an east bias with storm systems. I don't think the storm will end up that far south. But it's something that should still be watched.