ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Am I seeing correctly that Florence lost some more latitude overnight? 24.6N at 11pm last night and Recon finds it at 24.4N this morning?

Florence must gain some latitude today IMO or you just can't write off the more southern solutions.

[toad strangler]

I don't think the loss of latitude ATM means much for the future track. It's been pretty negligible IMO. Now if I woke up and Florence was down at 23 or 23.5 thats a problem. But no, she isn't far off from where NHC says she should have been.

[hurricaneCW]

The ICON is probably as good as the NAVGEM.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Initialized with a slightly stronger ridge it appears...

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS is a little north at hour 18. Please let that translate to offshore.

[KWT]

Looking at the 12z ICON it shows a decent gain of latitude tonight, general motion near WNW. Need to pick up latitude soon if that is to come off.

[northjaxpro]

For those that say Florida is in the clear, there are still models and some Euro ensembles that hit Florida so from Daytona Beach to Hatteras needs to continue watching this

Yes sir indeed!! Northeast Florida coadt and Georgia coast still in the potential area. Definitely need to keep a close watch

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looking at the 12z ICON it shows a decent gain of latitude tonight, general motion near WNW. Need to pick up latitude soon if that is to come off.

Looks like the GFS is following the ICON or vice versa. The new GFS is similar in ridging and position.

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS is a little north at hour 18. Please let that translate to offshore.

Focus on ridging and it's axis at the 500mb level over the EC.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the 12z ICON it shows a decent gain of latitude tonight, general motion near WNW. Need to pick up latitude soon if that is to come off.

Because that never happens

[FLpanhandle91]

This is looking very similar to 06z.

[tolakram]

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS has more ridging it looks like this run..........

[toad strangler]

So far 12z GFS through 48 still shows the ridge angled to send Florence very close to OBX. Thats where the W edge of the ridge is. Right off the coast. The devil in the details.....

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... 48 hrs... A bit N of 06z but appears stronger HP

[toad strangler]

GFS has more ridging it looks like this run..........

Many of us know what you are going through my friend. Hang tight!

[tolakram]

You can also chat about the model run in our chat room. Maybe relieve some of the back and forth in here?

https://discord.gg/VMktVYb

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing for sure, a landfall somewhere on the East Coast is becoming increasingly likely every day. Now the question is, where?

[tarheelprogrammer]

ICON and the GFS almost a perfect match at hour 60.

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS at hour 72 furthest N of at least last 4 runs. But as Eric Webb noticed, it has her at 24.7N at 3PM EDT, which is very likely going to verify too far north.