ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

12Z GFS at hour 72 furthest N of at least last 4 runs. But as Eric Webb noticed, it has her at 24.7N at 3PM EDT, which is very likely going to verify too far north.

Which model is likely to verify at that position?

[Hurricaneman]

12Z GFS at hour 72 furthest N of at least last 4 runs. But as Eric Webb noticed, it has her at 24.7N at 3PM EDT, which is very likely going to verify too far north.

That 30 mile makes a big difference between landfall and a scrape

[ronjon]

ICON model has shifted north and the ridge is weaker. How reliable is the ICON model?

Not very. It preformed horribly with Gordon. I'd lump it with NAVGEM as one of the least reliable models.

[FLpanhandle91]

The 594 line doesn't show the escape path OTS at hour 78. Expect maybe a more NW movement after passing the OBX just offshore. Maybe a Chesapeake landfall?

[tolakram]

[supercane4867]

Still heading straight for the Outer Banks. Not much change from 06z

[tolakram]

It's north, may loop just offshore again.

[tarheelprogrammer]

CMC trending toward the GFS and ICON KEEP IT UP!

[toad strangler]

12z UKMET landfalls in NC SW of OBX

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z UKMET landfalls in NC SW of OBX

Consensus building there. Good for me and bad for them. Hopefully it is a trend east over the next few runs.

[Blown Away]

I think the big difference is speed, 12z much faster than 06z, thus further N before running into HP wall...

[tolakram]

[toad strangler]

12z UKMET landfalls in NC SW of OBX

Consensus building there. Good for me and bad for them. Hopefully it is a trend east over the next few runs.

[tarheelprogrammer]

All we need now is the ECMWF to come on board. Better for it to park itself offshore and deal with erosion than a direct landfall.

[FLpanhandle91]

CMC trending toward the GFS and ICON KEEP IT UP!

CMC is south of GFS.

[psyclone]

One thing for sure, a landfall somewhere on the East Coast is becoming increasingly likely every day. Now the question is, where?

I've been thinking cape romain to cape lookout for days. Huge 89 seems like a good analog for this system except it will likely be somewhat north. a big powerful hurricane approaching from the southeast. Hugo was a catastrophe but it's worth noting just how quickly things tapered off for those south and west of the center. you definitely want to be south and west of a northwestward moving hurricane. Were i in the potential strike zone...determining which side of the tracks you're likely to be on is key. Of course that sort of granularity is impossible to determine at this juncture but it seems like the risk escalates dramatically as one heads up the SC coast. I would be far more concerned in Myrtle beach right now as compared to Hilton Head...for example. Some sleepless nights for our Carolina friends for sure.

[tarheelprogrammer]

CMC is almost directly at the same spot as the GFS and ICON. I am breathing easier over here for now. Feel bad for the OBX but less populated and the people who live there for the most part can afford to lose a house. It sucks but better to hit there than Wilmington or Myrtle Beach. Here is to hoping the ECMWF shows the same and that the trend continues NE.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Anyone have the UKMET?

[tolakram]

What about the stall and all the rain? Look at the 500mb, regardless of where the center ends up. Where is it going to go?

[meriland29]

So i just woke up and I do see that she is upgraded to a hurricane, however my phone is being wonky right now. Can anyone fill me in on any new updates? Last i saw, the 00z GFS stayed offshore and a few other ensemble members as well...is this still the case or more so?