ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2901 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:10 am

Looks like GFS is back the doomsday looping run again.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2902 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:10 am

tolakram wrote:What about the stall and all the rain? Look at the 500mb, regardless of where the center ends up. Where is it going to go?


If it stalls off the OBX or on them the rain mostly stays away from inland areas. Look at rainfall maps for GFS. The fish get a good rain on. :lol:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2903 Postby shah83 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:12 am

The placement of the high in this CMC 12z is rather far east, isn't it?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2904 Postby chaser1 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:12 am

With that ridge set up I cannot fathom how any models are not plowing the storm into South or North Carolina. I just don't see the poleward influence (to the extent that any track comes remotely close to tilting NNW).
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2905 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:12 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Anyone have the UKMET?


I just posted a landfall snapshot back a short stretch.Post #2894
Last edited by toad strangler on Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2906 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:13 am

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1038818084545413121


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2907 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:13 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Anyone have the UKMET?


Similar to the 06z GFS from what I can see.

12z GFS looks somewhat realistic over the next 12hrs, starts too far north BUT drops SW over the next 6-9hrs and so ends up about right in terms of latitude, then moves in WNW from around 00z tonight.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2908 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:14 am

when did models have this moving wnw ? been going west for days
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2909 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:15 am

tolakram wrote:What about the stall and all the rain? Look at the 500mb, regardless of where the center ends up. Where is it going to go?


THe other question is what happens if Florecnce is slower.. that next ridge is likely to trap it.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2910 Postby artist » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:17 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2911 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:20 am

artist wrote:Image



Poor NC is getting the brunt of all those..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2912 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:21 am

Would the GFS FLV model be a better guidance than regular GFS?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2913 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:23 am

meriland29 wrote:Would the GFS FLV model be a better guidance than regular GFS?


It's in testing phase but as shown promise.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2914 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:23 am

12Z UKMET: at hour 132 is a whopping 271 miles WNW of its 0 UKMET hour 144 although it is still far N of its runs prior to today's 0Z

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 55.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 0 24.4N 55.9W 986 60 ****vs actual of 24.4N, 56.1W
 0000UTC 10.09.2018 12 24.4N 57.4W 981 62
1200UTC 10.09.2018 24 24.8N 59.3W 972 65
0000UTC 11.09.2018 36 25.6N 61.5W 972 68
1200UTC 11.09.2018 48 26.5N 64.6W 965 73
0000UTC 12.09.2018 60 27.7N 67.9W 958 75
1200UTC 12.09.2018 72 29.1N 71.0W 953 84
0000UTC 13.09.2018 84 31.1N 73.4W 948 81
1200UTC 13.09.2018 96 32.8N 75.5W 942 86
0000UTC 14.09.2018 108 34.2N 76.9W 928 91
1200UTC 14.09.2018 120 34.9N 78.3W 962 54
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 35.5N 79.1W 983 37 *****0Z was at 33.5N, 75.0W
 1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 36.4N 79.2W 990 29
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2915 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:25 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:CMC is almost directly at the same spot as the GFS and ICON. I am breathing easier over here for now. Feel bad for the OBX but less populated and the people who live there for the most part can afford to lose a house. It sucks but better to hit there than Wilmington or Myrtle Beach. Here is to hoping the ECMWF shows the same and that the trend continues NE.


Hmm the 12z Cmc loops it back out for a landfall somewhere between Wilmington and Morehead city on Monday (these 4 consecutive days of hurricane conditions model runs are downright ugly)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2916 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:26 am

LarryWx wrote:12Z UKMET: at hour 132 is a whopping 271 miles WNW of its 0 UKMET hour 144 although it is still far N of its runs prior to today's 0Z

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 55.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 0 24.4N 55.9W 986 60 ****vs actual of 24.4N, 56.1W
 0000UTC 10.09.2018 12 24.4N 57.4W 981 62
1200UTC 10.09.2018 24 24.8N 59.3W 972 65
0000UTC 11.09.2018 36 25.6N 61.5W 972 68
1200UTC 11.09.2018 48 26.5N 64.6W 965 73
0000UTC 12.09.2018 60 27.7N 67.9W 958 75
1200UTC 12.09.2018 72 29.1N 71.0W 953 84
0000UTC 13.09.2018 84 31.1N 73.4W 948 81
1200UTC 13.09.2018 96 32.8N 75.5W 942 86
0000UTC 14.09.2018 108 34.2N 76.9W 928 91
1200UTC 14.09.2018 120 34.9N 78.3W 962 54
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 35.5N 79.1W 983 37 *****0Z was at 33.5N, 75.0W
 1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 36.4N 79.2W 990 29


Doesn't it seem to be gaining lat rather fast over the initial 36hrs?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2917 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:27 am

LarryWx wrote:12Z UKMET: at hour 132 is a whopping 271 miles WNW of its 0 UKMET hour 144 although it is still far N of its runs prior to today's 0Z

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 55.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 0 24.4N 55.9W 986 60 ****vs actual of 24.4N, 56.1W
 0000UTC 10.09.2018 12 24.4N 57.4W 981 62
1200UTC 10.09.2018 24 24.8N 59.3W 972 65
0000UTC 11.09.2018 36 25.6N 61.5W 972 68
1200UTC 11.09.2018 48 26.5N 64.6W 965 73
0000UTC 12.09.2018 60 27.7N 67.9W 958 75
1200UTC 12.09.2018 72 29.1N 71.0W 953 84
0000UTC 13.09.2018 84 31.1N 73.4W 948 81
1200UTC 13.09.2018 96 32.8N 75.5W 942 86
0000UTC 14.09.2018 108 34.2N 76.9W 928 91
1200UTC 14.09.2018 120 34.9N 78.3W 962 54
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 35.5N 79.1W 983 37 *****0Z was at 33.5N, 75.0W
 1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 36.4N 79.2W 990 29


Could it be moving faster this run?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2918 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:27 am

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018090912/gfs_z500_mslp_us_31.png[/img]

Looks like she is starting to get picked up north
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2919 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:29 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2920 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:29 am

LarryWx wrote:12Z UKMET: at hour 132 is a whopping 271 miles WNW of its 0 UKMET hour 144 although it is still far N of its runs prior to today's 0Z

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 55.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 0 24.4N 55.9W 986 60 ****vs actual of 24.4N, 56.1W
 0000UTC 10.09.2018 12 24.4N 57.4W 981 62
1200UTC 10.09.2018 24 24.8N 59.3W 972 65
0000UTC 11.09.2018 36 25.6N 61.5W 972 68
1200UTC 11.09.2018 48 26.5N 64.6W 965 73
0000UTC 12.09.2018 60 27.7N 67.9W 958 75
1200UTC 12.09.2018 72 29.1N 71.0W 953 84
0000UTC 13.09.2018 84 31.1N 73.4W 948 81
1200UTC 13.09.2018 96 32.8N 75.5W 942 86
0000UTC 14.09.2018 108 34.2N 76.9W 928 91
1200UTC 14.09.2018 120 34.9N 78.3W 962 54
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 35.5N 79.1W 983 37 *****0Z was at 33.5N, 75.0W
 1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 36.4N 79.2W 990 29


The UKMO after having been consistent has started rocking all over the place. Also worth noting the pressure of 928mbs just before landfall just a little east of Wilmington, amazing pressure from the UKMO!

Seems like the models are really honing in on N.Carolina now unfortunately, though still a little scope for a scrape by...
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