ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 941.2mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +15.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.4C

[Blown Away]

From the 5:00 am disco:
Later in the period, the dynamical model spread
increases but most of the guidance has continued its southward
shift, and now take Florence southwestward near the coast of South
Carolina by day 4. The NHC track has been adjusted southward at
days 4 and 5, and is a little north of the consensus out of respect
for continuity, however, the GFS, ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensemble mean
is south of the NHC track forecast, and add

NHC north of TVCN consensus, EURU/Ensembles, and GFS... Geez, I understand continuity, glad I’m not making that call...

[jlauderdal]

Based on that I'd say Georgia and Jax arent out of the woods. The entirety of Florence's life has indicated a southward trend and that seems like it will continue

Agree.

Euro actually has a 977 center right over savannah day 5

the trend is your friend..savannah absolutely has a decent chance of hurricane force winds in a few days, jax might be a bridge too far but the wouthward shifts continue

[jlauderdal]

From the 5:00 am disco:
Later in the period, the dynamical model spread
increases but most of the guidance has continued its southward
shift, and now take Florence southwestward near the coast of South
Carolina by day 4. The NHC track has been adjusted southward at
days 4 and 5, and is a little north of the consensus out of respect
for continuity, however, the GFS, ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensemble mean
is south of the NHC track forecast, and add

NHC north of TVCN consensus, EURU/Ensembles, and GFS... Geez, I understand continuity, glad I’m not making that call...

I would have went another 50 miles south but they everyone in that area is already under a watch so they have some room...if the next gfs goes south they will at 11

[tarheelprogrammer]

Dry air in the core again. Glad this thing is under performing.

[jlauderdal]

So, this is trending away from Wilmington?

landfall could be at wilmington or very close, prepare for the eyewall in wilmington within 48 hours so you are ready

[jlauderdal]

its the sofla sandwich

From Miami NWS

SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD REACH SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE REMNANTS
OF BOTH FLORENCE AND ISAAC, WHICH WILL AT LEAST KEEP THE AREA
UNDER HIGH-END SCATTERED AFTERNOON COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Well looks like they moved the forecast landfall south to the South Carolina / North Carolina boarder.

Here is my 5am update:
https://youtu.be/4BnPkuZjs0c

[southerngale]

Dry air in the core again. Glad this thing is under performing.

It is not under performing. Please do not try to dismiss this and give people a false sense of hope. Regardless where it makes landfall, this is a dangerous hurricane and will affect a large portion of the east coast. The storm surge and flooding due to stalling could be catastrophic. Hopefully, everyone in the cone has made the necessary preparations.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Dry air in the core again. Glad this thing is under performing.

It is not under performing. Please do not try to dismiss this and give people a false sense of hope. Regardless where it makes landfall, this is a dangerous hurricane and will affect a large portion of the east coast. The storm surge and flooding due to stalling could be catastrophic. Hopefully, everyone in the cone has made the necessary preparations.

I am not dismissing it simply stating a fact. NHC has forecasted it to get to 155 and it is struggling to maintain 130. Powerful? No doubt. Under performing? In terms of intensity forecasts yes. Nobody should dismiss the storm and I do not condone that.

[northjaxpro]

Dry air in the core again. Glad this thing is under performing.

It is not under performing. Please do not try to dismiss this and give people a false sense of hope. Regardless where it makes landfall, this is a dangerous hurricane and will affect a large portion of the east coast. The storm surge and flooding due to stalling could be catastrophic. Hopefully, everyone in the cone has made the necessary preparations.

Poor choice of words tarheel programmer. Florence is a Category 4 powerful hurricane which is going to cause severe havoc on many people.I would be careful not to deceive people with partcular wording or phrasing about the storm currently.

[GCANE]

Nice video from CIMSS on the outflow channel that kicked in yesterday.

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/w ... e_anim.mp4

[southerngale]

Dry air in the core again. Glad this thing is under performing.

It is not under performing. Please do not try to dismiss this and give people a false sense of hope. Regardless where it makes landfall, this is a dangerous hurricane and will affect a large portion of the east coast. The storm surge and flooding due to stalling could be catastrophic. Hopefully, everyone in the cone has made the necessary preparations.

I am not dismissing it simply stating a fact. NHC has forecasted it to get to 155 and it is struggling to maintain 130. Powerful? No doubt. Under performing? In terms of intensity forecasts yes. Nobody should dismiss the storm and I do not condone that.

Intensity is the most difficult thing to forecast. Yeah, in this case, track is difficult as well, but that's unusual this close.
No matter how you look at it, a cat 4, cat 3, or a cat 2 hitting land and forecast to stall or meander around for days, dropping possibly record rainfall amounts for that area isn't under performing. Time will tell. I hope you're right.

[GCANE]

She maybe creeping back up.
Coming on DMAX.
Could be a hot-tower show.

[Chris90]

CDO is becoming a bit more symmetric and cloud tops are maintaining pretty cold. Eyewall cycles might keep it from reaching full potential, but I think she might be about to make a run for the upper levels of Cat 4 in the next 12-24 hours.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Eye looks a bit ragged, cloud tops are warming, but it does look more symmetrical
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

[GCANE]

She is kicking in an equatorward outflow channel.
Poleward one is improving with the ULL to the east sliding more south.
She broke away clean from the PV streamer / anomaly.
Need to call as it is, this is just about the worst-case scenario.
Very rare this setup occurs in the Atlantic.
Very conducive for further strengthening.

[GCANE]

Can really see Flo rock on upper-level WV.
Check the outflow kicking in on the east quad.
The PV Streamer on the SE quad is filling in fast with moisture.
Very strong jet over East Cuba / West Hispaniola.
Ideal UL conditions in place for intensification.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, conditions over Florence look about as ideal for further intensification as you will see. Frightening to think about considering how powerful the cyclone already is currently.

[Nimbus]

Just the last few frames does look like a strengthening trend with possibly a slight slowdown in forward speed. Official track is now showing the westward bend which will occur when the ULL just to the west finally fills in and the ridge bridges over. High cirrus is beginning to expand more symmetrically rather than a NNW oriented oblong. The slowdown in forward speed is probably just a short term wobble illusion.