ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2941 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:25 am

abajan wrote:The swells in Bermuda must be humongous.

They are, and have been for several days.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2942 Postby M3gaMatch » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:26 am

Looks like a change to the outflow channel again from about 12 hours time? Not sure what that means for the storm itself.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2943 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:31 am

The news say, this Hurricane is more dangerous than other. Why is that the case ? Can anyone provide a link for explanation ? Maybe someone has already read about it.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2944 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:32 am

Nimbus wrote:Just the last few frames does look like a strengthening trend with possibly a slight slowdown in forward speed. Official track is now showing the westward bend which will occur when the ULL just to the west finally fills in and the ridge bridges over. High cirrus is beginning to expand more symmetrically rather than a NNW oriented oblong. The slowdown in forward speed is probably just a short term wobble illusion.


Nimbus I was wondering earlier was Florence beginning to slow down. Still am.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2945 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:34 am

Tons of High CAPE air feeding from the east.
Only two inhibiting factors I see.
1) Islands may cut off TPW feed.
2) Moving into slightly lower OHC water.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2946 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:35 am

AF306 about to start sampling Flo
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2947 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:37 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2948 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:41 am

I'm feeling a lot better about the situation in Raleigh. It's not looking good for Wilmington though.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2949 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:45 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2950 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:46 am

What an absolutely maddening turn of events. The hair-pull factor is exacerbated by the fact that the dive SW, according to the models, will be at the exact angle to parallel the coast for anyone's guess how long. Seems there can never just be a clear-cut MH landfall on the U.S. east coast even when it seems 5 days out that all the cards are stacked.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2951 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:47 am

Bunkertor wrote:The news say, this Hurricane is more dangerous than other. Why is that the case ? Can anyone provide a link for explanation ? Maybe someone has already read about it.



They believe it will make landfall as a cat4 north Of florida. The last time that happened was Hugo in 1989.
Bob 85 knots 1991
Bertha 80 knots
Fran 100 knots 1996
Bonnie 95 knots? 1998
Floyd 90 knots 1999
Isabel 85 knots 2003
Gaston 65 knots in 2004
Charley low end cat1
Ophelia 75 knots? 2005
Irene was a 75 knot storm
Arthur was 85 knots
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2952 Postby shiny-pebble » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:50 am

When does recon arrive next?

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2953 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:53 am

SconnieCane wrote:What an absolutely maddening turn of events. The hair-pull factor is exacerbated by the fact that the dive SW, according to the models, will be at the exact angle to parallel the coast for anyone's guess how long. Seems there can never just be a clear-cut MH landfall on the U.S. east coast even when it seems 5 days out that all the cards are stacked.



This goes to perfectly illustrate why under any circumstances that there is no such thing as "clear cut" track when it comes to tropical cyclones. Things can and often has changed very quickly. More the reason why it is emphasized greatly to always montior closely these storms.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2954 Postby cypher2001 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:54 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2955 Postby Dave C » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:56 am

GCANE wrote:Can really see Flo rock on upper-level WV.
Check the outflow kicking in on the east quad.
The PV Streamer on the SE quad is filling in fast with moisture.
Very strong jet over East Cuba / West Hispaniola.
Ideal UL conditions in place for intensification.

http://i65.tinypic.com/iynbpz.png

Quick question, what's a pv streamer?. Thanks!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2956 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:57 am

RL3AO wrote:I'm feeling a lot better about the situation in Raleigh. It's not looking good for Wilmington though.


I agree. I felt the same on the Thursday before Rita hit when there was no longer a Cat 5 pointed at Houston. I have it stalling near Cape Fear then SW into SC. South of NHC track.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2957 Postby southerngale » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:57 am

Sciencerocks wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:The news say, this Hurricane is more dangerous than other. Why is that the case ? Can anyone provide a link for explanation ? Maybe someone has already read about it.



They believe it will make landfall as a cat4 north Of florida. The last time that happened was Hugo in 1989.
Bob 85 knots 1991
Bertha 80 knots
Fran 100 knots 1996
Bonnie 95 knots? 1998
Floyd 90 knots 1999
Isabel 85 knots 2003
Gaston 65 knots in 2004
Charley low end cat1
Ophelia 75 knots? 2005
Irene was a 75 knot storm
Arthur was 85 knots

It is not just the wind and surge, which are both dangerous, but the possibility of it stalling or slowly meandering around and dumping an enormous amount of rainfall, more than those areas have ever seen from a tropical cyclone. The flooding could be catastrophic.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2958 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:59 am

Sciencerocks wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:The news say, this Hurricane is more dangerous than other. Why is that the case ? Can anyone provide a link for explanation ? Maybe someone has already read about it.



They believe it will make landfall as a cat4 north Of florida. The last time that happened was Hugo in 1989.
Bob 85 knots 1991
Bertha 80 knots
...
Irene was a 75 knot storm
Arthur was 85 knots

Thanks mate ! And infrastructure is count in ?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2959 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:03 am

Image
Last edited by NDG on Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2960 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:03 am

southerngale wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:The news say, this Hurricane is more dangerous than other. Why is that the case ? Can anyone provide a link for explanation ? Maybe someone has already read about it.



They believe it will make landfall as a cat4 north Of florida. The last time that happened was Hugo in 1989.
...
Arthur was 85 knots

It is not just the wind and surge, which are both dangerous, but the possibility of it stalling or slowly meandering around and dumping an enormous amount of rainfall, more than those areas have ever seen from a tropical cyclone. The flooding could be catastrophic.

OK, thanks very much ( and long time no see ! ). I read about that this morning, whereas yesterday, they meant, the 1000mm would stay in the Atlantic. But i agree, the situation seems to be very serious.
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