ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Ken711]

Was the Euro showing weaker ridging than the last run?

[hurricaneCW]

Not surprised how fast it's moving prior to landfall, that's a very stout ridge building to the north and west of it.

I wouldn't be surprised if the rest of the guidance sped things up going forward. Unfortunately once she does make LF, she'll likely slow down rapidly due to the massive ridge to the north with no trough moving in.

[tallywx]

12z GFS v. Euro didn’t budge an inch. Each holding firm.

[txwatcher91]

12z GFS v. Euro didn’t budge an inch. Each holding firm.

Usually a consensus approach leaning to the Euro side works well in these situations. Hmon, HWRF, FV3, Euro and UK all have landfall near Wilmington. GFS and ICON seem to be the outlier models at this time.

[LarryWx]

Now well inland in NC, 12 Euro ~50 miles W of 0Z

[tolakram]

[supercane4867]

Watch the full run instead of making assumptions half way through....

That's what I'm thinking regarding this thread. People need to stop making OTS predictions based upon frames out to only 48hrs.

[SconnieCane]

12z GFS v. Euro didn’t budge an inch. Each holding firm.

Soooo...given past performance, isn't the most likely outcome a blend between the two, slightly weighted toward the Euro's solution?

*I see someone else had the exact same thought as I typed, but can't delete since more posts have been added.

[PandaCitrus]

Since the FV3 was specifically created to address the known GFS deficiencies, reliance on GFS when it is a clear outlier seems unwise.

[CrazyC83]

Given the shape of the coast, the nearshore scenario would be worse for Hampton Roads due to a constant onshore flow?

[PandaCitrus]

Euro still has Florence moving inland through 126 hours. The flooding/stall might happen further inland into Appalachia.

[toad strangler]

Euro continues to PILE DRIVE Florence well inland into S NC.

[Hammy]

The vast majority of GFS ensembles are keeping Florence offshore. I wonder what is causing such massive differences in the GEFS and EPS?

GFS has a known bias for wanting to move into ridging. I would be more inclined to believe the other models this run

It's not having a great deal of consistency out to 120H either at the moment. Euro looks like it's been fairly consistent, along with the FV3 which has had very little change in the landfall point over the last four runs.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Since the FV3 was specifically created to address the known GFS deficiencies, reliance on GFS when it is a clear outlier seems unwise.

Sadly this might be the case. I was hopeful but getting worried now. How strong is the ECMWF at landfall?

[hurricaneCW]

NHC has this thing on lock, somewhere in between the Euro and Gfs is probably the right solution.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro ~100 miles W of 0Z run hour 132 pounding Triad (Greensboro, Winston, High Point, etc.)

[BobHarlem]

12Z Euro simulated IR Satellite

[txwatcher91]

Since the FV3 was specifically created to address the known GFS deficiencies, reliance on GFS when it is a clear outlier seems unwise.

Sadly this might be the case. I was hopeful but getting worried now. How strong is the ECMWF at landfall?

Roughly 950-952mb range.

[supercane4867]

Landfall intensity on 12z EC is about borderline CAT3/4

[Yellow Evan]

Classic case where the ECMWF has a better handle on the system and ends up winning the model war against the GFS.