ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

The Highs will form a bridge to compltely block Florence from moving poleward. The stronger High over the Ohio Valley building in would likely steer it southwest. This is the huge concern and rightfully so for my region.

[ozonepete]

With the High over the Atlantic breakging down and the High over the midwest growing, and possibly stalling Florence just off shore, what steering mechanism will continue to try to push it west?

The western Atlantic ridge is not breaking down. That's the problem. Steering collapses. There will be no synoptic level feature to steer it as it reaches the coast other than a possible drift west or southwestward along the southern side of the Atlantic ridge.

[GCANE]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/50vj4WYH5jY[/youtube]

[tolakram]

216
URNT12 KNHC 121332
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 12/13:12:20Z
B. 29.64 deg N 070.99 deg W
C. 700 mb 2636 m
D. 948 mb
E. 195 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C26
H. 93 kt
I. 303 deg 10 nm 13:09:30Z
J. 039 deg 93 kt
K. 301 deg 31 nm 13:03:00Z
L. 82 kt
M. 115 deg 13 nm 13:17:00Z
N. 219 deg 101 kt
O. 118 deg 16 nm 13:17:30Z
P. 8 C / 3048 m
Q. 15 C / 3055 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF306 1106A FLORENCE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 125 KT 046 / 24 NM 11:34:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 309 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

I can read this version better than the wall of text version.

[ozonepete]

With the High over the Atlantic breakging down and the High over the midwest growing, and possibly stalling Florence just off shore, what steering mechanism will continue to try to push it west?

The western Atlantic ridge is not breaking down. That's the problem. Steering collapses. There will be no synoptic level feature to steer it as it reaches the coast other than a possible drift west or southwestward along the southern side of the Atlantic ridge.

Here's the steering currents that you need to use.

[GCANE]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/tZylzR7r3IU[/youtube]

[OuterBanker]

While it is looking worse for southern NC and northern SC it is looking better for us. It does appear that the mid Atlantic will be spared.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1039857182748098565

[TheStormExpert]

Probably won’t make much of a difference (if any), but with Florence now being forecasted to slowdown and stall along the Carolina Coastline this would likely mean a lower chance of Florence making landfall as a major hurricane. Regardless, this will not matter as the effects should be the same with a prolonged period of strong winds, flooding rains, and storm surge. Take this storm seriously folks in the Carolinas, Georgia, Virginia, and even North Florida (depending on how far south she drifts) this storm means business!

[tolakram]

While it is looking worse for southern NC and northern SC it is looking better for us. It does appear that the mid Atlantic will be spared.

People always make these kinds of statements when storms approach and I can't say I'll ever understand why, but please keep your guard up and let's evaluate once it's over. Florence is going to have a wide swath of impacts and I'm not sure just how many locations are going to be spared.

[meriland29]

Since she underwent another ERC today and weakened a little as a result, because her best window of opportunity yesterday to intensify closed, is she likely to struggle to get any stronger from thus point forward?

[TheStormExpert]

While it is looking worse for southern NC and northern SC it is looking better for us. It does appear that the mid Atlantic will be spared.

If it continues to grow in size as anticipated, no one in the Carolinas are spared. Though the worst will be south of you, still expect flooding rains. Stay safe!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Since she underwent another ERC today and weakened a little as a result, because her best window of opportunity yesterday to intensify closed, is she likely to struggle to get any stronger from thus point forward?

Her best window is the next two days, the NHC has consistently shown peak intensity today/tomorrow.

Florence will be moving over sea surface
temperatures of around 29C and through an area of low vertical wind
shear during the next day or so. These conditions favor some
strengthening, but eyewall replacement cycles could cause some
fluctuations in intensity during that time.

[OuterBanker]

Oops, forgot to mention that the outermost bands are now visible here. Breeze is picking up surf around 6 ft.

[tolakram]

Higher water temps in 24 hours .

[meriland29]

Ok ty. Did she actually just come out of that ERC? Cause that would have been extremely fast...maybe 5 or less hrs...

[Bunkertor]

216
URNT12 KNHC 121332
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 12/13:12:20Z
B. 29.64 deg N 070.99 deg W
C. 700 mb 2636 m
D. 948 mb
E. 195 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C26
H. 93 kt
I. 303 deg 10 nm 13:09:30Z
J. 039 deg 93 kt
K. 301 deg 31 nm 13:03:00Z
L. 82 kt
M. 115 deg 13 nm 13:17:00Z
N. 219 deg 101 kt
O. 118 deg 16 nm 13:17:30Z
P. 8 C / 3048 m
Q. 15 C / 3055 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF306 1106A FLORENCE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 125 KT 046 / 24 NM 11:34:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 309 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

I can read this version better than the wall of text version.

Can give a link to this, tk ?

[tolakram]

216
URNT12 KNHC 121332
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 12/13:12:20Z
B. 29.64 deg N 070.99 deg W
C. 700 mb 2636 m
D. 948 mb
E. 195 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C26
H. 93 kt
I. 303 deg 10 nm 13:09:30Z
J. 039 deg 93 kt
K. 301 deg 31 nm 13:03:00Z
L. 82 kt
M. 115 deg 13 nm 13:17:00Z
N. 219 deg 101 kt
O. 118 deg 16 nm 13:17:30Z
P. 8 C / 3048 m
Q. 15 C / 3055 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF306 1106A FLORENCE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 125 KT 046 / 24 NM 11:34:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 309 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

I can read this version better than the wall of text version.

Can give a link to this, tk ?

It's temporary, but they appear here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml

[WAcyclone]

Stunning images from the ISS:

 https://twitter.com/Astro_Alex/status/1039870236227522560



 https://twitter.com/Astro_Alex/status/1039870760343543814

[GCANE]

Holy Crap!!

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657