ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[meriland29]

Does anyone know offhand what the predicted rainfall graph was 5 days out for Harvey last year?

[Highteeld]

New ships data is out -- much stronger than the last run.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Does anyone know offhand what the predicted rainfall graph was 5 days out for Harvey last year?

I seem to remember CNN showing a spot with up to 50 inches at one point. I don't recall the exact NWS graphics.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow,I"m surprised that this goes from a cat 4 to a tropical storm in just a few hours after it hits land....That's what you call extreme rapid weakening.

[BobHarlem]

Looks like *all* of the 0z early models are into North Carolina now.

[GTStorm]

Looks like *all* of the 0z early models are into North Carolina now.

and, the 0z extrap. confirms a slight N of West movement which has been anticipated, so this scenario looks to be valid (i.e. wouldn't expect any appreciable further south / west shifts).

yuck.

[NDG]

Most of the 0z models are over the Wilmington area of N.C.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like *all* of the 0z early models are into North Carolina now.

and, the 0z extrap. confirms a slight N of West movement which has been anticipated, so this scenario looks to be valid (i.e. wouldn't expect any appreciable further south / west shifts).

yuck.

dont get to antzy with the Xtrap also I see no evidence of north movment. only the proto eye wobbling around in the upper levels.

[GTStorm]

Looks like *all* of the 0z early models are into North Carolina now.

and, the 0z extrap. confirms a slight N of West movement which has been anticipated, so this scenario looks to be valid (i.e. wouldn't expect any appreciable further south / west shifts).

yuck.

dont get to antzy with the Xtrap also I see no evidence of north movment. only the proto eye wobbling around in the upper levels.

what chunk of time do they use for the extrapolation on this plot...is it the movement between 18z and 0z, or a longer time frame?

[Blinhart]

Looks like *all* of the 0z early models are into North Carolina now.

and, the 0z extrap. confirms a slight N of West movement which has been anticipated, so this scenario looks to be valid (i.e. wouldn't expect any appreciable further south / west shifts).

yuck.

dont get to antzy with the Xtrap also I see no evidence of north movment. only the proto eye wobbling around in the upper levels.

I totally agree, got to wait for this eye to clear out and settle on a direction, that could take up to 8 - 24 hours. This system will see quite a bit of wobbling and jogging in the near future.

[Aric Dunn]

and, the 0z extrap. confirms a slight N of West movement which has been anticipated, so this scenario looks to be valid (i.e. wouldn't expect any appreciable further south / west shifts).

yuck.

dont get to antzy with the Xtrap also I see no evidence of north movment. only the proto eye wobbling around in the upper levels.

what chunk of time do they use for the extrapolation on this plot...is it the movement between 18z and 0z, or a longer time frame?

Still at 24.5N no change .. straight west.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS Ensembles, also mostly NC now.

[meriland29]

Also, does anyone know if there is any anticipated sheer in the forecast near her?

[capepoint]

not directly related to models but kinda is....this will probably produce a monster storm surge for coastal nc. The water was nearly on NC12 tonight on Ocracoke where the dunes are washed away. Higher than normal tide cycle right now. If this comes in at high tide, like it very well may, it will add another 2 feet or so to the surge, and I am not sure that surge models take king tides into consideration.

[capepoint]

Most of the 0z models are over the Wilmington area of N.C.

Sucks when a model line goes over your house, in this case the AVNI tag is directly over me.

[GTStorm]

Hasnt it been a few days now that all signs pointed to her gaining latitude but yet she insists on staying to the south? That is unsettling.

NHC (and most models) says 25.1N by 2pm tomorrow, I'll worry if it's not there by then.

[Blown Away]

Flo isn’t even at 60W, I’ve never seen such good model concensus over 1200 miles away... Wow!

Is it going to be this easy to predict?

[toad strangler]

Flo isn’t even at 60W, I’ve never seen such good model concensus over 1200 miles away... Wow!

Is it going to be this easy to predict?

Tracks are seemingly set for this train. Doesn’t often happen like this usually

[Blinhart]

not directly related to models but kinda is....this will probably produce a monster storm surge for coastal nc. The water was nearly on NC12 tonight on Ocracoke where the dunes are washed away. Higher than normal tide cycle right now. If this comes in at high tide, like it very well may, it will add another 2 feet or so to the surge, and I am not sure that surge models take king tides into consideration.

The longer it takes to come in and slower speed, the surge will be just building on top of itself and the Waves will be building constantly also. Not a very good set up, some of these barrier islands might be completely washed away, if they don't have the Concrete walls like Galveston has there is no way they will be able to rebuild because all the dirt and everything else will be washed away and to the main shore.

[NDG]

Flo isn’t even at 60W, I’ve never seen such good model concensus over 1200 miles away... Wow!

Is it going to be this easy to predict?

This far away looks like it will be easy to predict on a general wide area but not on the exact land fall area, not yet. It could be any where between S.C. & the Outer Banks. IMO.