ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Local weather guy is saying EWR is happening
https://www.mypanhandle.com/

There is no double wind maxima, he has no clue IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/TSrpMMW.png

There's nothing to suggest an EWRC is underway.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 101436
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/14:12:00Z
B. 29.30 deg N 086.12 deg W
C. 700 mb 2454 m
D. 929 mb
E. 075 deg 10 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C18
H. 110 kt
I. 187 deg 7 nm 14:09:30Z
J. 299 deg 134 kt
K. 187 deg 7 nm 14:09:30Z
L. 112 kt
M. 024 deg 9 nm 14:15:30Z
N. 090 deg 125 kt
O. 023 deg 11 nm 14:16:00Z
P. 13 C / 3051 m
Q. 18 C / 3050 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF301 1514A MICHAEL OB 04
MAX FL WIND 134 KT 187 / 7 NM 14:09:30Z

[drezee]

Dropsonde in the NE eyewall measured 129 knots at the surface!!!!

Those surface winds were actually in the NW eyewall.

Yeah.. in the NW...even more insane...pray for them

[tolakram]

931mb down to 929mb ... still strengthening.

[StormPyrate]

Local weather guy is saying EWR is happening
https://www.mypanhandle.com/

There is no double wind maxima, he has no clue IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/TSrpMMW.png

There's nothing to suggest an EWRC is underway.

Agree, I think it might be wishful thinking from someone on TV reporting to their viewers

[MGC]

Radar loop is incredible. Mesovortices remind me of Andrew. Who would have thought we would be watching an intensifying Cat-4 approaching the north gulf coast in October?.....MGC

[Texas Snowman]

@BillKarins — Destructive eyewall of #HurricaneMichael is only 30 miles from the Panhandle. Heading directly for #PanamaCity and #TyndallAFB

[KWT]

Shaved another 2mbs off the pressure looking at that VDM. Also with that dropsonde of 129kts you could make an argument for 130kys, though probably 125kts is more representative.

[jdjaguar]

Do you guys know if any of the huricane chasers are in the area where landfall is expected? Any links to share?

https://livestormchasing.com/map

[Nimbus]

Water coming up passed where it was during nate last year here is Miramar beach, if it comes any higher it's going to be higher than the sea wall at the marina. This is getting scary for people who live on the bay!

That would be no more than about 4' surge at 10 AM?
High tide is about 1PM and the winds should be driving the water the other way later this afternoon although on the bay side that might make things a foot higher initially.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Sub 930mb storm in the FL panhandle....just wow

[Ken711]

Making the NE turn to landfall.

[northjaxpro]

Local weather guy is saying EWR is happening
https://www.mypanhandle.com/

There is no double wind maxima, he has no clue IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/TSrpMMW.png

There's nothing to suggest an EWRC is underway.

At this juncture and only 3 hours or so from landfall, iI think the chances of an EWR is very slim. Michael is landfalling as a strong Cat 4 or possible Cat 5.

[supercane4867]

I hope recon completes a NW-SE pass in the last minute before landfall

[dhweather]

We are witnessing a truly historical situation here. The vast majority of hurricanes making landfall on the Northern Gulf Coast are weakening as they approach land. Off the top of my head, Hurricane Camille is one that has intensified up until landfall. Cat 4 or Cat 5 really is a moot point now, all signs are that the storm surge will be historic, the minimum pressure at landfall will be historic, the winds at landfall will be historic.

[Texas Snowman]

@JackSillin — The most intense part of #Michael is its Northeastern quadrant. Unless we see a pretty substantial wobble east, this is headed directly for Panama City instead of sparsely populated near Apalachicola as was forecast earlier. Radar loop to watch -> weather.us/radar-us/861-w… #FLwx

[plasticup]

all signs are that the storm surge will be historic

At low tide, fortunately

[Ken711]

Andrew made landfall at 922 that would be something if it gets to 925.

[northjaxpro]

We are witnessing a truly historical situation here. The vast majority of hurricanes making landfall on the Northern Gulf Coast are weakening as they approach land. Off the top of my head, Hurricane Camille is one that has intensified up until landfall. Cat 4 or Cat 5 really is a moot point now, all signs are that the storm surge will be historic, the minimum pressure at landfall will be historic, the winds at landfall will be historic.

To sum it up in a nutshell, yes I completely agree!

[mrbagyo]

The visuals would be interesting as this will be a rare intense day-time landfall.
This is a feast for storm chasers