ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[TheDreamTraveler]

00z UKMET here

lol I like how the ukmet went from an western outlier to an eastern outlier so fast.

But yeah, model consensus is extremely good now. The trick is landing the exact landfall. We'll know close to the exact landfall in a few days.

Regardless of where you live on the NC coast you need to start getting prepared for the worst. Better to be safe than sorry.

[MississippiWx]

The UKMET has not been a very reliable model as of late. Really whiffed on Gordon. Wild swings with Florence. Not sure why everyone keeps wanting to see its outcome. European has paved the way.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Many in NC will use Fran as a comparison for this storm. Looking through old articles, Fran was a Cat-3 hurricane with max sustained winds of 115 mph. Wake County (home to Raleigh) saw about 8 inches of rain. The forecast for Florence looks much worse in terms of both wind and rainfall amounts.

What made Fran especially bad was the soft soil as a result of heavy rainfall the week before landfall. The trees were ripe for a nice wind. There is a chance of T-storms before Flo arrives, but the ground will not be nearly as saturated as it was before Fran. I'm hoping this makes a big difference. The amount of rain is really going to be a concern and reminds of Floyd which resulted in 500 year flood levels.

It's going to be a tough week.

i have already had a request to compare this storm to Fran. They didn't like my answer. Also, not sure where you are from, but we had about 40 days straight where it rained in July and August, The top layers of the ground my be dry, but it is still pretty wet a few feet down.

[eastcoastFL]

[Hurrilurker]

It's not very often you see this kind of close agreement on pretty much every model.

[hurricaneCW]

The UKMET has not been a very reliable model as of late. Really whiffed on Gordon. Wild swings with Florence. Not sure why everyone keeps wanting to see its outcome. European has paved the way.

There is some room for this to end up further north into se VA if the ridge gets displaced further north than it is now. Thats generally how the Mid-Atlantic was able to get record breaking rains this summer.

Although major shifts are unlikely now, we still have 4 days to go before LF.

[MississippiWx]

It's not very often you see this kind of close agreement on pretty much every model.

It's a fairly straight-forward forecast. Flo will simply be rounding the base of a ridge for the next few days. The hard part is pinning down the exact location of landfall, and when/if a stall occurs. It's obviously not 100% certain that we will have a North Carolina landfall, but the chances are high. It could trend south to the South Carolina border, or maybe a little more north, but there isn't an escape route. Solid ridging will surround the storm with no troughs. When you take troughs out of a forecast, the track becomes a lot more simple.

[TheDreamTraveler]

ukmet track if anyone wants to see it. When it was an western outlier I wasn't really falling for it due to the rest of the guidance. Now it's an eastern outlier but I still don't think it will get that east. It's always possible but doesn't look likely currently.

[wxmann_91]

FV3 way west. In line with the Euro.

[meriland29]

ECMWF 48hr....seems to look to have picked up speed with a little less latitude than last...

[meriland29]

ECMWF 72HR

[meriland29]

At 72 hours she is in the exact same position as 00z yesterday, but 20 mb stronger..

[meriland29]

Hr 96

[Brent]

SW for the Euro

Looks like Myrtle Beach

[eastcoastFL]

Hr 96

[img]https.%20://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018091000/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_5.png[/img]

Does it sit inland for a while after landfall?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Yeah definitely south of 12z

[WilmingtonSandbar]

SW for the Euro

Looks like Myrtle Beach

Actually worse for me. I will be getting the front right of the storm then.

[meriland29]

Hr 96

[img]https.%20://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018091000/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_5.png[/img]

Does it sit inland for a while after landfall?

Not at all

[MississippiWx]

Yep, Euro shifted south to the border of NC/SC. That landfall location is so important. The difference in onshore winds/surge to offshore wind is dramatic.

[meriland29]

It is interesting to see that GFS supports a stall, but Euro doesn't ..ever