ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

I want to wish our members in the Carolinas and Georgia the best of luck over the next week and beyond. This is looking more and more like a worst-case scenario.

[Michele B]

Slowing at 11am advisory but heading increased a few degrees to the north, heading NW now. Don't know what to make of that. Just about at 30 n latitude.

That's what I was wondering.

Sorry, I'm so far behind, this has probably been answered, and I'll find out as I catch up!

[BUD]

I want to wish our members in the Carolinas and Georgia the best of luck over the next week and beyond. This is looking more and more like a worst-case scenario.

Thanks!!! I am not going anywhere!! Staying right here in Cherry Grove!!!!

[meriland29]

Any recent recon information?

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1039921705261715456

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 17:19Z

A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 16:57:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30.32N 71.77W

D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 949mb (28.03 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 155° at 9kts (From the SSE at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 73kts (84.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix at 16:50:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 272° at 77kts (From the W at 88.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the S (177°) of center fix at 16:53:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 101kts (116.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the N (8°) of center fix at 17:03:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 98° at 119kts (From the E at 136.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the N (0°) of center fix at 17:07:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 123kts (~ 141.5mph) which was observed 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NE (52°) from the flight level center at 14:50:00Z

[GCANE]

Flight level winds picking back up.
Eye dewpoint dropping.
Looks like its on the tail end of the EWRC.
Rain-rate > 60 mm/hr.
May make a run to Cat 5

[Raebie]

Any recent recon information?

Read through the threads. It's all there.

[J_J99]

Flight level winds picking back up.
Eye dewpoint dropping.
Looks like its on the tail end of the EWRC.
Rain-rate > 60 mm/hr.
May make a run to Cat 5

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/last24hrs.gif

http://i63.tinypic.com/2e4g0bc.png

Everything is right except for microwave....(thats from yesterday) for the life of me I have not seen a new microwave image of Florence in 4 hours.... really frustrating considering it is key in being able to identify EWRCs

[GCANE]

I hope these people wrote their SSN on their foreheads with a sharpie


 https://twitter.com/DrMitchem/status/1039915826831388677

[sbcc]

Flight level winds picking back up.
Eye dewpoint dropping.
Looks like its on the tail end of the EWRC.
Rain-rate > 60 mm/hr.
May make a run to Cat 5

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/last24hrs.gif

http://i63.tinypic.com/2e4g0bc.png

That microwave image is dated yesterday. Edit: nevermind, someone already caught it.

[GCANE]

Flight level winds picking back up.
Eye dewpoint dropping.
Looks like its on the tail end of the EWRC.
Rain-rate > 60 mm/hr.
May make a run to Cat 5

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/last24hrs.gif

http://i63.tinypic.com/2e4g0bc.png

Everything is right except for microwave....(thats from yesterday) for the life of me I have not seen a new microwave image of Florence in 4 hours.... really frustrating considering it is key in being able to identify EWRCs

Thanks for letting me know. Removing it.

[PavelGaborik10]

Flight level winds picking back up.
Eye dewpoint dropping.
Looks like its on the tail end of the EWRC.
Rain-rate > 60 mm/hr.
May make a run to Cat 5



http://i63.tinypic.com/2e4g0bc.png

I do think the window for cat 5 has all but closed at this point.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Huh?

https://twitter.com/RawStory/status/1039887723157442560

..yeah, when it comes to Darwinism..

Probably has no idea what these hurricanes can do. doesn’t sound like a native. there r two types of people. Wise and foolish. one doesn’t need to go to the school of hard knocks to see that the officials know what they are talking about. hope those innocent kids survive.

Where is the Dept of Family Services when you need them? Oh yeah, they have already evacuated! Even if it's not a direct hit, this women has no idea the hell she's going to put these poor kids through. I was only 4 when Donna came thru FL and some of that traumatization is why I, 58 years later, stay glued here during the season.

[meriland29]

Ok thanks for the recon. Looks like she is starting a erc? Last past prior stated it was closed and now she is open to the S

[Mouton]

At 2PM LOCATION...30.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 mb...27.99 inches

Speed picked up 1 mph over the 11AM speed. Also movement is now 5 degrees further toward the North!

[ozonepete]

I hope these people wrote their SSN on their foreheads with a sharpie


https://twitter.com/DrMitchem/status/1039915826831388677

That is insane.

[sweetpea]

I hope these people wrote their SSN on their foreheads with a sharpie


https://twitter.com/DrMitchem/status/1039915826831388677

My cousin is one, he lives in Avon, NC and isn't leaving. We all have been trying to change his mind, but he says it is going further south he will be fine. Even though I did tell him he would be on the dirty side, never mind the storm surge and rain.

[gfsperpendicular]

I hope these people wrote their SSN on their foreheads with a sharpie


https://twitter.com/DrMitchem/status/1039915826831388677

That is insane. Ocracoke island is not big and could get overwhelmed by surge and rain.

(e)I have a lot of family members in the OBX; they all left thankfully. Despite the landfall trending south, could OBX still be in big danger?

[dukeblue219]

Folks, powerful Atlantic hurricanes are rarely stable. I know a lot of casual posters want to know if the storm is 140mph or 130mph now, or if the eye is or is not perfectly formed, but it's not always a simple question to answer. The winds will vary a good bit from measurement to measurement in any storm, and it's RARE for any major hurricane to sit at any particular intensity for more than a day. There's always land interaction, or shear, or an ewrc, or whatever affecting the storm.

What I'm saying is don't focus too much on each wind measurement or each satellite wobble because they don't tell you anything unless you look at trends and the big picture. A drop of 10kt doesn't mean the storm is struggling to stay together and a wobble to the S doesn't mean the forecast should be shifted. That's just how hurricanes are.

What we have is a major hurricane that is going to dump a LOT of rain and bring in a LOT of surge. Whether the center makes landfall at 110mph or 135mph honestly may not matter that much.