ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[emings]

My brother is a truck driver he sent me this photo as he took a load into Savannah Georgia about an hour ago.

[PavelGaborik10]

Ok thanks for the recon. Looks like she is starting a erc? Last past prior stated it was closed and now she is open to the S

She started her EWRC a long time ago from what I gather.

[supercane4867]

I hope these people wrote their SSN on their foreheads with a sharpie


https://twitter.com/DrMitchem/status/1039915826831388677

NWS bullitin from Hurricane Ike:

"All neighborhoods ... and possibly entire coastal communities ... will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide," the advisory said. "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes will face certain death."

[psyclone]

I hope these people wrote their SSN on their foreheads with a sharpie


https://twitter.com/DrMitchem/status/1039915826831388677

That is insane. Ocracoke island is not big and could get overwhelmed by surge and rain.

(e)I have a lot of family members in the OBX; they all left thankfully. Despite the landfall trending south, could OBX still be in big danger?

The OBX remain under a hurricane warning. Those that opted to stay are hoping for a miracle that may or may not happen. Looks like all risk and no reward proposition for those that chose to ride it out.

[WYNweather]

Buoy 41002 today
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 10.2 ft

Watch Buoy station 41002 Yesterday at 10am was only 5.2

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41002

Here it comes 1:50 pm measurement

5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Significant Wave Height (WVHT): 17.7 ft

[Vdogg]

I hope these people wrote their SSN on their foreheads with a sharpie


https://twitter.com/DrMitchem/status/1039915826831388677

That is insane. Ocracoke island is not big and could get overwhelmed by surge and rain.

(e)I have a lot of family members in the OBX; they all left thankfully. Despite the landfall trending south, could OBX still be in big danger?

With each update the storm seems to be moving further north of west and even picked up speed. This is definitely a threat to obx. Remember, they're still on the right of the NHC cone.

[opticsguy]

I hope these people wrote their SSN on their foreheads with a sharpie


https://twitter.com/DrMitchem/status/1039915826831388677

That is insane. Ocracoke island is not big and could get overwhelmed by surge and rain.

(e)I have a lot of family members in the OBX; they all left thankfully. Despite the landfall trending south, could OBX still be in big danger?

The OBX remain under a hurricane warning. Those that opted to stay are hoping for a miracle that may or may not happen. Looks like all risk and no reward proposition for those that chose to ride it out.

I think they are worried about looters

[crimi481]

Looks like dry air feeding in the s.e. quad
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

[meriland29]

Looks like dry air feeding in the s.e. quad
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

Her eye looks considerably smaller unless the frameage is interpreted wrong..

[SunnyThoughts]

Regarding those folks on Ocracoke, On the chance they actually do survive the storm surge, I can't even imagine how long it will take for anyone to get out there to them after all is said and done. Power outage probably measured in WEEKS not days...their supplies probably washed away. Scenarios we probably can't even imagine.

[MGC]

Is the eye contracting or is it an illusion?

[weunice]

I've been through plenty of hurricanes. I have also read many horror stories of people who assumed a storm was just like all those they had experienced before. Many of them are dead. This was particularly true along the MS gulf coast with Katrina because (it can't be worse than Cat 5 Camille) and Ike because (it isn't as strong as Alice or the 1900 storm). Many, many dead because they had been through it all before ... until they hadn't and they were on the phone with 911 operators telling them there was nothing they could do.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/jewish_voice/status/1039941138025570304




 https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/1039939945882943489

[Vdogg]

Storm is weakening quite a bit. Doubt she makes it back to 4 and doubt she stays a 3 long. Good news of what little we can find.

Might be another EWRC. It's had several so far.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is the eye contracting or is it an illusion?

Illusion, it is weakening and the eye is becoming ragged with clouds covering it. Is it doing the opposite of IR?

[Nederlander]

Storm is weakening quite a bit. Doubt she makes it back to 4 and doubt she stays a 3 long. Good news of what little we can find.

I wouldn’t bet too much on that proposition.. NHC says tomorrow AM is their target for a strengthening phase before landfall..

[meriland29]

Wow

[SunnyThoughts]

Is the eye contracting or is it an illusion?

Illusion, it is weakening and the eye is becoming ragged with clouds covering it. Is it doing the opposite of IR?

Some are saying she is going through another eyewall replacement cycle, guess we will know in a few hours if that is indeed the case.

[jaxfladude]

SS EL FARO is the tragic example

Holy Crap!!

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657

Don't want to be anywhere close to Florence on a ship that's for sure.

[meriland29]

How many ERCs can she go through in a day? Jeesh. Sounds like she might just suffer and weaken from now on..