WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

Animated EIR frames also show that the inner eye is undergoing trochoidal wobbles as EWRC progresses.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Convection deeper/colder and eye looking smaller. Oh dear. Underestimated. Recon?


It's going through an ERC. Not a time for hyperbolic estimates.

EWRC can induce weakening but not entirely. We've seen this in many Atlantic hurricanes where it develops a concentric, double-wind maximum, and an increase in the 50 to 64 knot wind radii without weakening.

But you were implying this is strengthening. If this were an EPac storm, I'd expect you to say the opposite.

This hasn't peaked. The models and agencies agree on strengthening. Right now, it is simply not the case. My post about underestimation was wrong, and I acknowledge it. There is a weakening trend, albeit brief and insignificant. The cooling convection is a result of the change from day to night. (diurnal variation) We all now nighttime is usually when convection cools. The eye is cloud-filled. Nevertheless, Maria remains to be a powerful super typhoon.

Admit it, you like hyperboles.

[euro6208]

06Z GFS much weaker only peaks this at 908 mb.

[doomhaMwx]

Impressive VIIRS image from earlier today...


Day/Night Visible Imagery VIIRS
07-06-2018 03:24am UTC

[euro6208]

EWRC can induce weakening but not entirely. We've seen this in many Atlantic hurricanes where it develops a concentric, double-wind maximum, and an increase in the 50 to 64 knot wind radii without weakening.

But you were implying this is strengthening. If this were an EPac storm, I'd expect you to say the opposite.

This hasn't peaked. The models and agencies agree on strengthening. Right now, it is simply not the case. My post about underestimation was wrong, and I acknowledge it. There is a weakening trend, albeit brief and insignificant. The cooling convection is a result of the change from day to night. (diurnal variation) We all now nighttime is usually when convection cools. The eye is cloud-filled. Nevertheless, Maria remains to be a powerful super typhoon.

Admit it, you like hyperboles.

Truly a loss in meteorology because of no recon. Incredible. Just imagine how much data we've lost.

[euro6208]

10W MARIA 180706 1200 17.0N 141.3E WPAC 135 922

Remains a high end Category 4.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1015202568442609664

[xtyphooncyclonex]

More strengthening anticipated.

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 6 July 2018

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 8 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°25' (20.4°)
E137°50' (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

HWRF model predicts only little to no additional intensification during the next couple of days. Probably the best model to follow right now with a system of this intensity. Let's see...

[NotoSans]

Don't really agree with JMA's intensity forecast. Shear is expected to increase slightly as the subtropical ridge to the north of Maria builds. Sea surface temperature and ocean heat content will also decrease as Maria tracks north of 20N. These conditions do not really support a sub 910-mb typhoon.

Right now Maria seems to be struggling with eyewall replacement. The central dense overcast has become quite ragged (especially the northern side) and the eye has become cloud-filled.

[mrbagyo]

Won't be surprised if Maria gets downgraded from STY status.

[wxmann_91]

If Maria doesn't get moving soon upwelling could become a big problem.

[cycloneye]

JMA at 105 kts.

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 6 July 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 6 July>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N17°00' (17.0°)
E140°55' (140.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 7 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N18°40' (18.7°)
E140°05' (140.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 910 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°55' (20.9°)
E136°05' (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N23°20' (23.3°)
E130°35' (130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 910 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)

[Highteeld]

To me it looks like the EWRC is getting close to completion -- eye might be similar Lan's... IE 50 nm wide or so...

[HurricaneRyan]

I see Maria decided to visit the Western Pacific after getting banished from the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

JTWC down to 125 kts due to the EWRC.

WDPN32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TY
10W HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WHILE
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), LEADING TO THE RECENT
DECREASE IN INTENSITY. OVER THE MOST RECENT TWO HOURS, THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS REFORMING AROUND THE OUTER EYEWALL AND THE OVERALL
CLOUD STRUCTURE IS IMPROVING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 061800Z HIMAWARI ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGE USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER TECHNIQUE, LEADING TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (120 KNOTS) FROM PGTW HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN LIGHT OF A 061800Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) ESTIMATE OF T6.4 (124 KNOTS). A 061556Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED A WEAK, VERY SMALL INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A WELL-
DEFINED OUTER EYEWALL, WITH A DIAMETER OF APPROXIMATELY 45 NM. A
SUBSEQUENT 061751 SSMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE
INNER EYEWALL IS NOW DISSIPATED AND THE NEW OUTER EYEWALL, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION, HAS FORMED COMPLETELY AROUND THE LLCC. THE DISSIPATION
OF THE INNER EYEWALL AND ESTABLISHMENT OF THE OUTER EYEWALL
INDICATES THAT THE ERC HAS COMPLETED AND NEAR-TERM REINTENSIFICATION
CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE NEW EYEWALL BEGINS TO CONTRACT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WHILE TY 10W STILL REMAINS IN A OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, AS THE TUTT CELL TO THE WEST HAS WEAKENED, WHILE THE TUTT TO
THE NORTHEAST HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
LESS ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CHOKING OFF MOST OF THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. VWS
REMAINS FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOTS) AND SSTS NEAR 30 DEG CELSIUS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. TY 10W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, RECENT
TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE TRACK OF TY 10W IS
TRENDING SOUTHWARD AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 24, THEN TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST, AND A
STRONG RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE STR CENTER, SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
COAST OF JAPAN TO TAIWAN. DESPITE THE 10 KNOT DECREASE IN INITIAL
INTENSITY DUE TO THE ERC, TY 10W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND A SHORT PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 12, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, LOW VWS AND HIGH SSTS. BY TAU 36 THE TUTT
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO A LARGE DECREASE IN AVAILABLE OUTFLOW, LEADING TO A
WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A TIGHT SPREAD OF ONLY 60 NM AT TAU 72
BETWEEN THE RIGHT OUTLIER (JGSM) AND THE LEFT OUTLIER (ECMWF).
HOWEVER, THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
LEFTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS
SHIFTED APPROXIMATELY 30NM SOUTHWARD AT TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS OVER HONSHU AND RIDGES
WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL CHINA AND REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT SOUTH OF OKINAWA AND
MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 108 ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF CHINA
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY LESS FAVORABLE AS TY 10W TRANSITS CLOSER TO THE RYUKU
ISLANDS, AS BEYOND TAU 72 SSTS COOL TO NEAR 27 DEG CELSIUS, OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES DECREASE AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WEAKENS, WITH
ONLY ONE WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT THE SYSTEM.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FROM TAU 72
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 72, WITH 110 NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE HWRF
SOLUTION ON THE RIGHT AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE LEFT AT TAU 96,
INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CHINESE COASTLINE. HOWEVER,
AS WITH THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS TRENDING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY APPROXIMATELY
60 NM. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS BEEN A NOTEWORTHY BELLRINGER OF THE
SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE, LEADING THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS
BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE MOST RECENT RUN HAS SHOWN ECMWF CONTINUING
THE TREND, SO THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE TIGHTLY PACKED NATURE OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

The western side was impinged upon some earlier, but it appears to be bouncing back. It'll probably be a few more hours before the eye clears out.

[Twisted-core]

MARIA is looking ragged now. The once glorious super typhoon appears shattered.

[cycloneye]

JMA:

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 7 July 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 7 July>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N17°10' (17.2°)
E140°50' (140.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 8 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19°10' (19.2°)
E139°10' (139.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 910 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N21°20' (21.3°)
E134°50' (134.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N23°50' (23.8°)
E129°05' (129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 910 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)

[1900hurricane]

The west side is still running a little weak.