ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lrak]

I am worried that Isaac will become a very strong hurricane. Hoping somehow he doesn't get powerful. Praying for all in the Caribbean as the people down there definitely don't need this.

Agreed 100%. Imagine that still almost one year from Maria,thousands of homes are with the blue tarps.That says it all about how are things in PR so we dont need even a Tropical Storm to threat us.

I do a tax return for a guy that's been on and off the island for almost 9 months. He's an OSHA safety guy and he said 10s of thousands are still in desperate need of assistance. I sure hope the best for you and your's. I will pray. I use to live in Port Aransas TX and Harvey really messed it up. I actual got emotional when I went back after the clean up.

[NDG]

I was talking about the shear last night. And the Euro and GFS due west motion is caused by a high parked over Cuba, not allowing it to gain latitude, ultimately crashing it into Honduras and Nicaragua.

The almost due west motion across the Caribbean is also due to the models showing it to weakening and getting caught in the low level easterlies across the Caribbean, lets not forget the Euro has been west biased. The ridging north of it doesn't look that strong because of Florence so if it stays stronger across the Caribbean it is highly unlikely it will crash into C.A. Time will tell.

Not that it can't change, but shear across that area of the Caribbean has been parked there all season and has been fairly stout. Our discussions this morning (with our mets) was focused on this feature. They were obviously cautious about anything beyond their 5 day mark where they feel comfortable, but if the shear stays put, they think it's not going to gain latitude. We'll see in a few days.

They are right, the shear over the Caribbean has been relentless so far and has yet to subside as forecasted by the CFS model weeks ago, but if the energy is able to make it into the western Caribbean it may restrengthen. I was looking at the latest GFS and it shows Isaac picking up speed when it enters the Caribbean, moving across around 22 mph, hard for a system to stay strong moving that fast.
2002 even had stronger shear across the Caribbean but they relaxed in the second half of September and early October.

[SoupBone]

GFS weakens Isaac over next 36 hrs.
Hard to figure why it would do this

Not hard at all. High Caribbean shear currently in the area and forecast to remain as it tracks across.

Not talking about when it reaches carribean,
GFS weakens it starting now,when conditions appear favorable

Conditions are marginally favorable, with wind shear increasing in front of it as it heads to the islands. It has a sweet spot where it can strengthen, right before impacting the islands. Over the last several days, shear has been minimally increasing around it. Crazy though, that like Gordon, it's own environment has been low shear, and as it moves along, the shear decreases right on top of it. The GFS and Euro both have been consistent over the course of several days, so they will either be right or spectacularly bust, together. I hope they're right, with a minimal system over the islands! Unfortunately, nothing has called for it to dissipate before reaching them.

[Gustywind]

I am worried that Isaac will become a very strong hurricane. Hoping somehow he doesn't get powerful. Praying for all in the Caribbean as the people down there definitely don't need this.

Thanks, we appreciate . We monitor it seriously!

[SoupBone]

I forgot to add, the Crazy Canadian and the UKMET, BOTH, have Isaac turning north away from the islands altogether, out to sea. So actually, I hope that's the ultimate solution. They've been modeling that same scenario for days now, much like the Euro and GFS killing it in Honduras/Nicaragua.

[cycloneye]

C. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON TROPICAL STORM ISSAC AT 12/1130Z
NEAR 14.2N 54.8W.

[cycloneye]

@AndyHazelton
The small size of #Isaac could make it quite susceptible to dry air over the next few days and then shear later this week.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1038840868143357954

[Gustywind]

Where is Aric Dunn? Aric what is your best thoughts for TS Isaac? Thanks a lot

[SoupBone]

@AndyHazelton
The small size of #Isaac could make it [b]quite susceptible to dry air over the next few days and then shear later this week.[/b]

Shear has been the focus of our mets, but dry air would be a great addition. Let's hope so for you guys!

And dry air out on front of it is pretty decent too.

[Buck]

@AndyHazelton
The small size of #Isaac could make it [b]quite susceptible to dry air over the next few days and then shear later this week.[/b]

Shear has been the focus of our mets, but dry air would be a great addition. Let's hope so for you guys!

And dry air out on front of it is pretty decent too.

Wow I didn't realize it was surrounded like that... and also wow... Florence has nothing to keep it from RI.

[msbee]

I am worried that Isaac will become a very strong hurricane. Hoping somehow he doesn't get powerful. Praying for all in the Caribbean as the people down there definitely don't need this.

Agreed 100%. Imagine that still almost one year from Maria,thousands of homes are with the blue tarps.That says it all about how are things in PR so we dont need even a Tropical Storm to threat us.

Luis, exactly! We still have people living under tarps too. Even a tropical storm is not good. People here are VERY concerned, even though it is forecast to pass South of us.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 60 kts.

AL, 09, 2018090918, , BEST, 0, 144N, 398W, 60, 997, TS

[CrazyC83]

Could Danny 2015 be a comparable storm? Rapidly intensifying with the small size, then decapitating near the islands?

[Gustywind]

18z Best Track up to 60 kts.

AL, 09, 2018090918, , BEST, 0, 144N, 398W, 60, 997, TS

Waouw this little boy does not give down to 997 mb now with already 60 kts? Should it make it at 65 kts at 5PM...hope no!

[Gustywind]

I am worried that Isaac will become a very strong hurricane. Hoping somehow he doesn't get powerful. Praying for all in the Caribbean as the people down there definitely don't need this.

Agreed 100%. Imagine that still almost one year from Maria,thousands of homes are with the blue tarps.That says it all about how are things in PR so we dont need even a Tropical Storm to threat us.

Luis, exactly! We still have people living under tarps too. Even a tropical storm is not good. People here are VERY concerned, even though it is forecast to pass South of us.

That's very worrying for all of us, but especially those like you who lived in the Northern Leewards, PR, but do not forget Dominica too really pounded by Maria. Let's continue to monitor it and be prepared in case of.

[KWT]

Could Danny 2015 be a comparable storm? Rapidly intensifying with the small size, then decapitating near the islands?

Possibly, heck even Beryl from earlier this season may give a hint of what is to come??

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD... stay at 3.5/3.5 moving straight west.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/1745 UTC 14.5N 39.6W T3.5/3.5 ISAAC
09/1145 UTC 14.5N 38.7W T3.5/3.5 ISAAC

[Gustywind]

Could Danny 2015 be a comparable storm? Rapidly intensifying with the small size, then decapitating near the islands?

Possibly, heck even Beryl from earlier this season may give a hint of what is to come??

Yes absolutely, were in July, chances are increasing for these systems unhopefully in September.
Whereas as we have a special setup with Florence, etc. and that we're entering the peak the best way to succeed is to be on our guard, vigilant and be prepared even if us in the EC are really weak after IRMA and MARIA knockouts . Let's wait and see are Isaac's plans during the next couple of days.

[msbee]

Agreed 100%. Imagine that still almost one year from Maria,thousands of homes are with the blue tarps.That says it all about how are things in PR so we dont need even a Tropical Storm to threat us.

Luis, exactly! We still have people living under tarps too. Even a tropical storm is not good. People here are VERY concerned, even though it is forecast to pass South of us.

That's very worrying for all of us, but especially those like you who lived in the Northern Leewards, PR, but do not forget Dominica too really pounded by Maria. Let's continue to monitor it and be prepared in case of.

yep, Gusty, Dominica does not need this either

[Gustywind]

Luis, exactly! We still have people living under tarps too. Even a tropical storm is not good. People here are VERY concerned, even though it is forecast to pass South of us.

That's very worrying for all of us, but especially those like you who lived in the Northern Leewards, PR, but do not forget Dominica too really pounded by Maria. Let's continue to monitor it and be prepared in case of.

yep, Gusty, Dominica does not need this either

Yep Barbara OMG, the projections are so worrying for them after Erika 2015, Maria, 2017... that is amazing KO in such a short period. Looks like numerous systems tend to pass closer to them and Guadeloupe expect for Irma. With my untrained systems are finding often the years before, ways to moving throught by passing close the Northern Leewards. Remember that Beryl was pretty close to Dominica or just South of Guadeloupe. Ironically... Berry has ceased development near 15, 2 N 60 W.... just a curious observation, looks like many systems find their way near the Southern Leewards Northern Leewards. Anyway, let's hope that Isaac will find another way and forget the Lesser Antilles issue