ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

What we need is a new microwave pass, to tell us if the damage to the core is healing or not. If it is, that new convection might be long-lasting, otherwise, it might merely be a transient hot tower. We shall see!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Phillip Papin on twitter

"A recent 85GHz microwave pass over #Hurricane #Florence reveals despite its good IR presentation, the core is starting to degrade.

The earlier #ERC never finished & a combo of ocean upwelling & dry air entrainment are affecting the core.

Further intensification unlikely now." https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039958804715073536

I wonder why he talks about ocean upwelling. Florence is moving forward like a rocket.

Scroll down in his twitter feed; RECON yesterday dropped some SST boys that have measured the upwelling.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1039970504881446912

[PTrackerLA]

I just like I thought a few days ago, Florence could very well resemble Isabel or Irene as it approaches the coast. Both those storms were raggedy looking 2's and Florence look like she could easily go that way (would be great news.)

[p1nheadlarry]

I just like I thought a few days ago, Florence could very well resemble Isabel or Irene as it approaches the coast. Both those storms were raggedy looking 2's and Florence look like she could easily go that way (would be great news.)

Seems like every storm approaching NC does this. Why I doubted it would slam as a 140 mph cane. They have to be rocketing like Hugo or Hazel.

[GCANE]

Massive off-the-scale rain rate.
Latent heating is going to reintensify the core.
Nicely isolated from any PV anomalies.

http://i64.tinypic.com/2ldzrs6.jpg

http://i64.tinypic.com/21eama1.gif

Phillip Papin on twitter

"A recent 85GHz microwave pass over #Hurricane #Florence reveals despite its good IR presentation, the core is starting to degrade.

The earlier #ERC never finished & a combo of ocean upwelling & dry air entrainment are affecting the core.

Further intensification unlikely now." https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/103995880471507353

There are contradictory. What is the truth?

There are always two camps.
Those that see any weakening and put out the He's Dead Jim post.
And then those that understand factors that are conducive for development and make an educated forecast.

[eastcoastFL]

Eye doesn't look so hot but shes firing off cold towers all around at the moment.

[supercane4867]

This is what happens when a storm gets too large. Its wind field begin to stir water ahead of storm before the center even gets there

[PavelGaborik10]

Florence isn't looking too hot right now. Would be great if she continues to weaken.

[eastcoastFL]

Seems to be missing the next forecast point to the east..

[tolakram]

I do not understand the upwelling argument at all. There is less heat content in the area Florence is moving through at the moment, but I would not refer to that as upwelling. This the the 12Z map.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well the warmer water gets much deeper along the track before it hits the Gulf Stream were warm water runs deep. Its just hitting the deeper warm water now.

[ronyan]

I think there must be shear affecting Florence, upwelling is not happening right now with a forward speed of 16 mph.

[northjaxpro]

I just like I thought a few days ago, Florence could very well resemble Isabel or Irene as it approaches the coast. Both those storms were raggedy looking 2's and Florence look like she could easily go that way (would be great news.)

Seems like every storm approaching NC does this. Why I doubted it would slam as a 140 mph cane. They have to be rocketing like Hugo or Hazel.

Tropical cyclones often take advantage of the Gulf Stream on their approach toward either the SC or NC coasts.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm not sure what people are talking about with regards to her collapsing, this is best looking hurricane I've seen this far north in a long time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

On microwave it looks like the SE part of the eye is having a hard time closing off

[Bocadude85]

138
WTNT31 KNHC 122036
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...FLORENCE MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 72.5W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

[northjaxpro]

I'm not sure what people are talking about with regards to her collapsing, this is best looking hurricane I've seen this far north in a long time.

For me, this is the most impressive tropical cyclone based on satellite presentation at 30 degrees Latitude or higher approaching the U.S. East Coast since Hugo in '89.

[otowntiger]

How many ERCs can she go through in a day? Jeesh. Sounds like she might just suffer and weaken from now on..

And that would be a good thing, I’m pretty sure.

If the wind field didn't expand after the EWRC finished, I guess it could be a good thing. Since the wind field does expand with EWR, though, that could well be a turn for the worse in terms of surge intensity and duration...

I was responding to the comment that it could 'suffer and weaken from now on'. It kinda sounded like the op was a little frustrated by that, and I could'nt help but comment. I do know that EWRC's can weaken or inhibit intensification more often than strengthen as well.

[Sciencerocks]

I think there must be shear affecting Florence, upwelling is not happening right now with a forward speed of 16 mph.

There certainly was yesterday! The anti-cyclone was causing southwesterly shear and weakening the southwestern quad of the cyclone as it forced dry air into the eyewall. Shear appears to be less today based on the shape of the outflow, but dry air is still messing with the southwestern quad. This will continue to affect the system as it moves towards the coast so the chances of cat4 landfall is very low to very unlikely. If this moves southwestward offshore as some models have shown don't be surprised if it isn't even a major landfall. Some of the models show this as some of them weaken it quite a bit as it moves southwestward down the coast as the system would be sucking up dry air from inland. If it heads more westward = much better chance at a cat3 landfall.