ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[SunnyThoughts]

HWRF hovering around the low 930's as far as mb in the first 33 hours or so.

[Bizzles]

Is it likely or possible this change in latitude now will cause her to hit a less populated bit or stay offshore and go out?

If it gets within 100 miles of the coast, it will be causing serious hazards all across the East Coast. This storm is probably already over 200 miles wide and growing, so this will have effects all the way up and down the East coast.

Great point...imo too many ppl are looking at the track of the center of the storm not the impact of the NE quad.

[Tyler Penland]

HWRF hovering around the low 930's as far as mb in the first 33 hours or so.

Quite a bit stronger by 48. 927mb vs 942mb on the 12z. Also a tick further north.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I do think the ECMWF is showing this storm coming in too far south. Looks more likely, at least to my eye, to come closer to Morehead CIty than Wilmington. Purely my unprofessional opinion, of course.

[bigGbear]

HWRF east at 72 and slower

[bigGbear]

HWRF landfall west of Morehead City at 90

[PandaCitrus]

GFS FV3 through 60 hours seems to be heading towards Moorehead City as well.

[Ken711]

GFS FV3 through 60 hours seems to be heading towards Moorehead City as well.

Yes.

[Evenstar]

The EPS/ECMWF had a notorious short-term W bias with Irma last year as that hurricane neared South FL and the Keys. I'm not surprised to see the E shifts in guidance. I'm not downplaying this storm, but I've always suspected the worst-case scenario(s) were improbable. This will still be a very serious event, but far less than it could have been, at least in my humble view.

This will be a horrible position for all the Carolina's and DelMarVa. There will be continous powerful winds with rain on top of it for days. This is a horrific situation, just because a system comes in 40 miles further North than one spot doesn't mean it will not be serious. You are talking about serious storm surge going up all the bays, including Chesapeake Bay.

Exactly. That shift is catastrophic for Norfolk/Va. Beach. It takes millions out of RFQ, to only put a different million in it.

For some reason, Hampton Roads has been all but ignored in relation to this storm. I think we are going to get spanked.

[PandaCitrus]

FV3 landfalled a little west of Moorehead City. Looks like Jacksonville and Onslow County get nailed.

Onslow County, NC has 177,000 people. Not as populated as further south but far from a rural area.

[Vdogg]

FV3 landfalled a little west of Moorehead City. Looks like Jacksonville and Onslow County get nailed.

Onslow County, NC has 177,000 people. Not as populated as further south but far from a rural area.

That shift brings the RFQ, and probably hurricane force winds, into SEVA. SEVA is heavily populated and floods severely during heavy thunderstorms. This is not a good scenario for us. If Euro follows suit, I wouldn't be surprised to see hurricane watches for our area by tomorrow.

[Vdogg]

GFS FV3 through 60 hours seems to be heading towards Moorehead City as well.

http://wx.graphics/models/fv3gfs_florence.png

That's the exact place where Isabel made landfall...

[Michele B]

HWRF east at 72 and slower

Where are you all seeing these models? I can't find what you're looking at.

[PandaCitrus]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91018&fh=6

[Ken711]

This will be a horrible position for all the Carolina's and DelMarVa. There will be continous powerful winds with rain on top of it for days. This is a horrific situation, just because a system comes in 40 miles further North than one spot doesn't mean it will not be serious. You are talking about serious storm surge going up all the bays, including Chesapeake Bay.

Exactly. That shift is catastrophic for Norfolk/Va. Beach. It takes millions out of RFQ, to only put a different million in it.

For some reason, Hampton Roads has been all but ignored in relation to this storm. I think we are going to get spanked.

If the models keep moving east, then the OBX will be ground zero, but the Tidewater area from VA beach, Norfolk and Hampton will get the NE side of Florence, and the flooding and wind damage will be extensive.

[Powellrm]

Which models are people referring to that reflect a more northernly turn towards VA? I'm not following.

[Blown Away]

00z spaghetti models plots shifted E...

[tolakram]

18Z HWRF

[Steve]

This will be a horrible position for all the Carolina's and DelMarVa. There will be continous powerful winds with rain on top of it for days. This is a horrific situation, just because a system comes in 40 miles further North than one spot doesn't mean it will not be serious. You are talking about serious storm surge going up all the bays, including Chesapeake Bay.

Exactly. That shift is catastrophic for Norfolk/Va. Beach. It takes millions out of RFQ, to only put a different million in it.

For some reason, Hampton Roads has been all but ignored in relation to this storm. I think we are going to get spanked.

Depends on who you read. I probably mentioned ‘em 5 times or more in the last week. Looked like the worst option was when the GFS was in the low 910’s and never made landfall for several days. Tons and tons of sea water would have piled in with the circulation, and also being in an onshore flow of like 100 hours of feeder bands was looking terrible. I still think it’s going to be bad all through the Tidewater, but bad will be realative to where Florence landfalls. On the one hand if it’s far south, maybe bands, high tides and a tornado threat. But the closer the center is to the NC/VA border, how far it gets inland and how long it hangs around will be key for SE VA. It could be anywhere from TS party weather to some level of catastrophic.

[Ken711]

00z spaghetti models plots shifted E...

The slow steady movement to the OBX.