ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bjackrian]

Some decent lightning detected by GOES in the southwest portion of the inner circulation over the last 15-20 minutes or so.

What does that mean

My very amateur understanding is that sometimes, lightning near the inner core of a storm can be a sign of impending strengthening.

[Ian2401]

Big convective burst in the SW eyewall

[Nederlander]

Some decent lightning detected by GOES in the southwest portion of the inner circulation over the last 15-20 minutes or so.

What does that mean

That convection is firing up on the south side... She may be trying to strengthen..

[Rail Dawg]

Roads will be clear with all the evacs out of the way. Hang in Wilmington tonight then maybe follow her southwest.

Good point.

You know I followed Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville, Fl at 10-20 mph keeping him right off my right side as he was 10 miles offshore tracking north.

Had 120 mph winds on the nose for several hours. Was completely alone and quite frankly that was pretty cool. Saw the waves smashing on the A1A highway as I was driving along only to see video later of the road wiped out in places.

Then last year with Irma I headed north from Naples, FL just after the eye passed over. Tracked her for hours until finally leaving her behind well north of Tampa.

So yeah maybe the plan will be to see what our lady Florence is going to do. Might as well wait and then put this one into the logbook. May end up tracking her too.

Thanks!

[Blizzard96x]

I do agree with some of the comments here that it does appear that she is looking better than a few hours ago... but MAN, this storm more than any I can recall in the past has been more "hot and cold" than I can remember. Like really, I wouldn't be surprised to see this bck up to Cat 3 strength but I would be equally unsurprised if the IR presentation quickly fades again in the next few frames. Really odd.

[1900hurricane]

I'm not 100% sure this is the exact number (I'm still testing the program I wrote that does these calculations), but using the 00Z best track data, I end up with Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of 65.718 TJ and a Surge Destruction Potential (SDP) of 4.116.

I have it in real time in my best track system. Bottom right corner:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/mode ... rack&ike=1
I usually have the IKE value turned off. It can be turned on at the top of the page.

My values are a tiny bit different. I used this:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php

That page says:

"Update: Please note that IKE calculations prior to October 23, 2012 used a surface air density 0f 1.0 Kg per cubic meter. Current calculations (after October 23, 2012) use a more representative value of 1.15 kg/cubic meter based on GPS sonde measurements in hurricanes."

That's handy, thanks!

[meriland29]

I think this will be very important if indeed she is restrengthening. This off and on strengthening, degrading and strengthening again might play a huge huge role in her destination.

[txwatcher91]

Some decent lightning detected by GOES in the southwest portion of the inner circulation over the last 15-20 minutes or so.

What does that mean

My very amateur understanding is that sometimes, lightning near the inner core of a storm can be a sign of impending strengthening.

It can be indicative of dry air or strengthening. In this case I would go with strengthening due to the intensity of the convection.

[emeraldislenc]

Looks like it might be strengthening too the presentation on satellite looks much better

[meriland29]

I see it now. There's a massive burst of convection going on in the southwest that she was struggling on. Shes definitely angry ...

[Nederlander]

I think this will be very important if indeed she is restrengthening. This off and on strengthening, degrading and strengthening again might play a huge huge role in her destination.

I am not sure that intensity will play a huge role in her exact landfall.. Remember the steering currents are forecasted to begin collapsing with ridge building.. Another point to consider is the NHC disco about the expanding wind field. While the core may begin to strengthen, it would take a while for that strengthening to be distributed..

[HDGator]

Radar out of Wilmington is showing storms firing in the outer bands that appear to be growing. This coupled with the better sat presentation with the eye being surrounded with better convection, seems to indicate a better reorganization and a strengthening storm. This is not a good time for Florence to pull herself together and strengthen. We'll have to watch the next few hours whether it continues to develop???

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[bjackrian]

Anyone have ideas about the loop they're doing basically due south of the center? Searching for dry air intrusion vs shear?

[PavelGaborik10]

Let's see how long she continues to improve her appearance. There's been a few times today she's tried to get her act together only to be knocked back down.

[meriland29]

When is recons next mission

[emeraldislenc]

Can you share the Wilmington radar site?

[HDGator]

Roads will be clear with all the evacs out of the way. Hang in Wilmington tonight then maybe follow her southwest.

Good point.

You know I followed Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville, Fl at 10-20 mph keeping him right off my right side as he was 10 miles offshore tracking north.

Had 120 mph winds on the nose for several hours. Was completely alone and quite frankly that was pretty cool. Saw the waves smashing on the A1A highway as I was driving along only to see video later of the road wiped out in places.

Then last year with Irma I headed north from Naples, FL just after the eye passed over. Tracked her for hours until finally leaving her behind well north of Tampa.

So yeah maybe the plan will be to see what our lady Florence is going to do. Might as well wait and then put this one into the logbook. May end up tracking her too.

Thanks!

I lurk more than post but I've enjoyed your observations. I don't thing the wind is out of Florence's sails yet. If I were in your shoes, I'd stick it out to see what happens in Wilmington. I don't think you could have a better spot at this moment and though it's conjecture at this moment, I'm concerned about how much Florence may affect them. The wind threat may be slightly reduced but I'm really concerned about the surge/rainfall effects at this point.

Take care and stay safe!

[chaser1]

Inner eye wall contraction in conjunction with the increased display of colder tops as depicted in the BD curve (Sat.), increase in lightning near the core, and increased convective symmetry clearly suggest pressures must be falling. I think possibly falling fast. Would'nt surprise me in the least if 'ol Flo had to get re-fit for her size (Cat) 4 dress.

[HDGator]

Can you share the Wilmington radar site?

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
This is the NWS feed and you can see the storms building on the outer bands as of now 04:20Z.
I'm looking at a Level 2 feed on gr2analyst now.

[emeraldislenc]

So you think it could re strengthen that much?