ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[stormreader]

Euro through 120 hours has 90L making hard left turn to the west just before 28ºN. due to what looks like slightly stronger riding north of it.

Those precip charts posted last couple of days based on Euro were strongly hinting at the late west push in the northern GOM. I really think the moisture envelope is going to impact further west too. Of course Pensacola-Mobile very much under the gun (on East side) been thinking this already. But NOLA could now definitely been in for really serious rain event---and even S Central La also, if the Euro model comes true.

[PSUHiker31]

Oh this stalling of the system from the Euro is not good if it verifies

[boca]

I’m thinking that 90L will be far enough west that it will just miss us because by Saturday it will be 300 miles west of us and we will be in the sinking air just outside the circulation if you go by the Euro.90L is also moving inland over the Yucatan west bound as of what Cycloneye posted at 2pm.

[stormreader]

Euro would be insane rain for the north central gulf coast...someone post amounts when you can

Yes, we really have to begin to come to terms with this now, I think. Euro hinting at more consolidated system...but moisture to be the story in this slow moving--even stalling system along the northern Gulf coast. Month of May not conducive climo-wise for significant wind event. But rain is another story.

[MississippiWx]

Euro would be insane rain for the north central gulf coast...someone post amounts when you can

Looks like 6-10 inches along the Northern Gulf. More than likely amounts in a lot of places are underdone by at least half.

[gatorcane]

Wow the GFS and Euro couldn't be more different on the evolution of this system. I just checked the FV3 GFS and it insists a sheared mess will be on top of Florida in 72 hours. It is rare to see these two normally reliable models to diverge so much in just the 48-72 hour timeframe. Just shows how a CAG meeting up with a ULL can wreak havoc with the modelling algorithms.

We are getting closer to the timeframe one of these models is going to bust big time as we are really in the short to medium range now.

[cycloneye]

At 18z Best Track,the position of low is further inland in Yucatan Peninsula.

Location: 19.5°N 88.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 210 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 180 NM

[Nimbus]

Euro through 120 hours has 90L making hard left turn to the west just before 28ºN. due to what looks like slightly stronger riding north of it.

The Jet stream is flowing east through Tennessee ATM, there is room to the south for some ridging to evolve in the next 120 hours which would explain the westward drift scenario. There might be some flood concerns IF a low level center stayed off shore under a building ridge near the northern gulf coast. Still lots of model divergence for the official forecasters to sort.

[cycloneye]

18z model suite.

[SFLcane]

I’m thinking that 90L will be far enough west that it will just miss us because by Saturday it will be 300 miles west of us and we will be in the sinking air just outside the circulation if you go by the Euro.

This is a very likely outcome..

[BobHarlem]

I’m thinking that 90L will be far enough west that it will just miss us because by Saturday it will be 300 miles west of us and we will be in the sinking air just outside the circulation if you go by the Euro.

This is a very likely outcome..

Looking at the current sat photos of the west Carib There's no there there., I think it's just a possibility, wouldn't call it likely, even the euro as 5" for parts of Florida.

[fendie]

IF the latest EURO pans out SFL might get some scattered showers but no heavy rainfall event here. Tricky forecast for sure trying to pinpoint who will see it.

12Z Euro hi-res has 2.5-5" of rain for all of south Florida thru Tuesday morning.

[Steve]

A rundown of the 12Z's for 5/23/18 (per Tropical Tidbits)

GFS - Moves in south of Tampa between 84/90 hours and goes up the Peninsula, hooks wnw over toward Dothan, AL and moves up and out off the SE Coast. Rainfall amounts have diminished on this run. The heaviest are across Western Cuba and into South Florida with a secondary maximum around Albany GA in extreme SW GA.

ECMWF - 96 hours is SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Hooks west and then comes ashore in SC LA after 144 hours on a NE heading.

CMC - Hits around Pensacola/Navarre at 120 hours and makes a slow counterclockwise loop onland. Most significant rainfall through 200 hours is a line from Miramar/Panama City throughout western GA up toward the western ATL suburbs.

NAVGEM - Hits the loop in the water and goes ashore near Panama City around 174 hours

ICON - Does the loop south of the LA coast and comes ashore in Terrebonne Bay (Houma/Cocodrie) around 147 hours. The most significant rainfall is offshore of LA/MS and AL.

JMA - Comes up toward the LA coast and landfalls around Grand Isle between 120-144 hours

NAM 12km - Only goes out to 84 hours. Comes off the Yucatan on a NNW heading but starts hooking east at the end of the run which is counter to the other models that want to retrograde or loop counterclockwise.

FV3GFS toward the end of the run arcs the most moisture from around Cedar Key over toward Niceville or so.

[ronjon]

Wow the GFS and Euro couldn't be more different on the evolution of this system. I just checked the FV3 GFS and it insists a sheared mess will be on top of Florida in 72 hours. It is rare to see these two normally reliable models to diverge so much in just the 48-72 hour timeframe. Just shows how a CAG meeting up with a ULL can wreak havoc with the modelling algorithms.

We are getting closer to the timeframe one of these models is going to bust big time as we are really in the short to medium range now.

Actually the 12z UKMET and GFS are pretty close on track the next 72 hours. Looks like the 12z CMC and UKMET are pretty close on track the next 4-5 days. Even the ECM shifted east at 96 hrs from its previous run. Think the FL peninsula is going to get walloped with rain the next 3-5 days from numerous training bands moving from south to north.

[SFLcane]

IF the latest EURO pans out SFL might get some scattered showers but no heavy rainfall event here. Tricky forecast for sure trying to pinpoint who will see it.

12Z Euro hi-res has 2.5-5" of rain for all of south Florida thru Tuesday morning.

No big deal there we get that weekly during afternoon t-storms.

[fendie]

Wow the GFS and Euro couldn't be more different on the evolution of this system. I just checked the FV3 GFS and it insists a sheared mess will be on top of Florida in 72 hours. It is rare to see these two normally reliable models to diverge so much in just the 48-72 hour timeframe. Just shows how a CAG meeting up with a ULL can wreak havoc with the modelling algorithms.

We are getting closer to the timeframe one of these models is going to bust big time as we are really in the short to medium range now.

Actually the 12z UKMET and GFS are pretty close on track the next 72 hours. Looks like the 12z CMC and UKMET are pretty close on track the next 4-5 days. Even the ECM shifted east at 96 hrs from its previous run. Think the FL peninsula is going to get walloped with rain the next 3-5 days from numerous training bands moving from south to north.

Actually the 12Z Euro is slower to move northwards toward the LA coast at 96 hours, and by 120 hours its further west (and south) than the 0Z run.

[cycloneye]

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
300 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Currently, light to moderate east-southeast winds are across the
basin with locally fresh winds near the Yucatan Channel
associated with an elongated area of low pressure extending from
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula to inland western Honduras. Seas
are generally 2 to 3 ft in the western half of the basin while
altimeter data show seas in the range of 4 to 7 ft in the eastern
Gulf. The area of low pressure is expected to further develop
off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning. The
tropical low will move slowly northward in the eastern Gulf over
the weekend with up to near gale force winds and associated seas
east of the low. The global models consensus indicate the low
will reach the offshore waters of SE Louisiana Sunday morning,
then briefly stall in that region through Monday morning when the
low moves inland SE Louisiana. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and isolated tstms are possible over much
of Floria, the Yucatan Channel and the northeast Gulf.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml

[tailgater]

Can someone post the Euro rain swath prediction from this run? THX in advance

[cycloneye]

That is a lot of rain.

@NWS
We are forecasting heavy rain across the Gulf states and much of the southeast U.S. through the holiday weekend. Remember, even weak tropical systems can produce tremendous rainfall and inland flooding.



 https://twitter.com/NWS/status/999368715941613571

[Kazmit]

Loop showing the organization of 90L today:

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=8184&y=6794&z=3&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=100&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20180523180043&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider