ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/Astro_Alex/status/1039870760343543814

[Nimbus]

The wind field for those 60 MPH winds that bring down power lines is the width of the entire North Carolina coastline. The HWRF and GFS are taking Florence quite far inland by 84 hours which is an encouraging trend but that still leaves a couple days of heavy flooding for the area. The tree fall and shingle loss rate from a 960 MB land falling hurricane is a lot lower and that does help.

[GCANE]

Helicity already working its way onshore.
May see some tornadoes soon.

[Bunkertor]

/me shoves Cup of Coffee to GCANE

( SPC had issued a MD concerning Tornado watch - but dropped )

[Nederlander]

[AdamFirst]

The berating of meteorologists has already begun on social media. "Only a Category 2" they scream.

Those pictures from Ike should tell the tale of what "only a Category 2" means

[jlauderdal]

The berating of meteorologists has already begun on social media. "Only a Category 2" they scream.

Those pictures from Ike should tell the tale of what "only a Category 2" means

cat 1 gusts in broward county from irma, took three months for the city to clean up the debris, not because they were not trying, because there was so much

only the naive downplays hurricane force winds even cat 1

[Nederlander]

The berating of meteorologists has already begun on social media. "Only a Category 2" they scream.

Those pictures from Ike should tell the tale of what "only a Category 2" means

Yep.. same thing after Rita, Ike, etc.. They also get hammered after situations like Harvey.. You have a two-fold problem..

1) Intensity forecasts/modeling in the 3-5 day range still have a lot of work to do.
2) Mainstream and social media are so quick to jump all in on a potential Cat 4/5 landfall to drive clicks, but are so far behind in distributing new information as it is available. Our society, IMO, has become somewhat ignorant due to social media. It’s fair to say most people probably follow what they hear on Twitter than following NHC guidance. Anyway, back to Florence..

[JtSmarts]

I'm warning all my friends and family in eastern SC to be prepared for a prolonged beating of gusty winds and heavy rains and I'm hoping we don't get too many power outages here in the Midlands of SC. Also, I agree Adamfirst, I hate the way people are bashing our mets and the storm hasn't even made landfall yet. What would they do if we didn't have meteorologists who do their absolute best to warn us what is about to happen?

[xironman]

I does remind me of Ike, kind of a mess but with the massive wind field that creates excessive storm surge.

[NDG]

Estimated fix this morning per radar and the last fix by the last recon 6 hours ago shows that between these two points Florence moved at an average of 12.6 mph, down from 15-17 mph last night.

[NDG]

I wonder what's going on with the recon heading into Florence this morning, it hit the breaks going around in circles on the SW quadrant of the hurricane, I guess having equipment problems.

[NDG]

[wx247]

Tornado Watch until 9 p.m. local time for much of coastal NC, north of Wilmington. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm-D_YUWsAAUloG.jpg

[TheStormExpert]

Honestly I think this is where Joe B’s impact and power scale is quite genius. Doesn’t take a major to do major damage, and this may just be the case again.

Frances in 2004 was only a mid-grade Cat.2 when it struck East-Central Florida and it did quite a bit of damage due to its overall size and slow movement.

[tolakram]

September 13th, 2008. Ike

[tolakram]

Florence

[txwatcher91]

I wonder what's going on with the recon heading into Florence this morning, it hit the breaks going around in circles on the SW quadrant of the hurricane, I guess having equipment problems.

They might have dropped a buoy in that location to determine wind speeds, upwelling, etc as I know they’ve been dropping some the past few days.

[NDG]

Honestly I think this is where Joe B’s impact and power scale is quite genius. Doesn’t take a major to do major damage, and this may just be the case again.

Frances in 2004 was only a mid-grade Cat.2 when it struck East-Central Florida and it did quite a bit of damage due to its overall size and slow movement.

Agree, not much difference between 110 mph Cat 2 and a 115 mph Cat 3, only 5 mph difference. Its slow movement as it approaches the coast will have a catastrophic storm surge.

[GCANE]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
705 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

SUMMARY...Outer convective bands with hurricane Florence will
gradually spread inland across the North Carolina coast this
morning, and continue across eastern North Carolina through the
afternoon/evening. Supercells and a few tornadoes will be possible
with the outer convective bands.