ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I wonder what's going on with the recon heading into Florence this morning, it hit the breaks going around in circles on the SW quadrant of the hurricane, I guess having equipment problems.

They might have dropped a buoy in that location to determine wind speeds, upwelling, etc as I know they’ve been dropping some the past few days.

You are correct, they dropped a dropsonde 120 miles SW of the eye, tropical force winds reported at the surface. It is on the move again.

[GCANE]

Rain Rate: 24 mm/hr in the SW feeder band

[TheStormExpert]

The berating of meteorologists has already begun on social media. "Only a Category 2" they scream.

Those pictures from Ike should tell the tale of what "only a Category 2" means

cat 1 gusts in broward county from irma, took three months for the city to clean up the debris, not because they were not trying, because there was so much

only the naive downplays hurricane force winds even cat 1

Yeah I remember even back in November still seeing piles of debris on the side of U.S. 1 while driving to and from work here in NE Palm Beach County.

[dukeblue219]

They might have dropped a buoy in that location to determine wind speeds, upwelling, etc as I know they’ve been dropping some the past few days.

You are correct, they dropped a dropsonde 120 miles SW of the eye, tropical force winds reported at the surface. It is on the move again.

True, but they've also done some buoy drops into the path of the storm. This loop was in a reasonable location and included the decent from 20k ft to 10k ft. Could have just been that they needed a minute to drop to operational altitude and dropped a sonde at the same time, or perhaps something less common like a buoy.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1040203592802680832

[BobHarlem]

It doesn't look too bad on visible, eye being filled in a bit otherwise.

[NDG]

Buoy just 20 miles offshore from Cape Hatteras already reporting 20 foot waves.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41025

[weathaguyry]

Yup, Sandy had “only Cat 1 force winds in NY” and it took a month for our power to be restored, our roof was severely damaged, our siding peeled off, and roughly 3/4 of the trees in our town either fell directly from the wind, or died due to the saltwater intrusion into the soil and fell at a later date, so sure, Cat 1 winds aren’t a big deal at all

[GeneratorPower]

Florence
https://i.imgur.com/0Ipq5Ts.png

Where did you find this image?

[NDG]

Pressure seems to have hold steady during the night or maybe a little lower.
Eye is at 33.05N 75.08W


114500 3303N 07510W 6959 02774 9543 +158 +130 260011 017 026 002 03

[tolakram]

Florence
https://i.imgur.com/0Ipq5Ts.png

Where did you find this image?

I captured it off of COD.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[dukeblue219]

Peak flight level winds 76kt in the SW quadrant

[tallywx]

The NWS Raleigh discussion is absolutely brilliant. Incredible synoptic detail:

“
06Z upr air data indicate the mid level ridge that has been strengthening across the sern US during the past day or two has become centered, at 593-594 dm, from the srn Appalachians to VA this morning. There remains a break in this ridge, from a stronger 597 dm ridge ne of Bermuda - the one that has been dominating the steering flow of Hurricane Florence in recent days. Meanwhile, the tropopause- level trough axis stretching near and just offshore the coast of the Carolinas for the past several days, and which likely contributed to the shear and weakening of Florence late Wed, has weakened and was
not discernible in 06Z special release raob data this morning. Meanwhile, the persistent upr low/circulation off the sern US coast, which was embedded within the larger scale upr trough axis and break in the sub-tropical ridges, has begun to drift wwd to the FL Atlantic coast; and this continued drift into the nern GOM will continue today. The wwd migration of the upr low, and otherwise
weakening of the parent trough axis, will allow Florence to move through an environment characterized by weak(ening) shear as it tracks toward the srn NC coast today; and this should cause a halt to the earlier weakening, or perhaps even some minimal re strengthening today.”

[tolakram]

Here's the Rainbow image of Florence off the old floaters page.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters-old.html

[tolakram]

Peak flight level winds 76kt in the SW quadrant

That's the weak side, next set of numbers will be interesting.

[tolakram]

Same

[GCANE]

From Recon
954.3mb

[Emmett_Brown]

Since many models and the forecast track slow the storm considerably upon approach, this will make wobble watching difficult to resist for the next 48 hours.

[NDG]

Dropsonde at surface showed 85 mph winds on the SW eyewall.

968mb (28.59 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.2°C (77°F) 290° (from the WNW) 74 knots (85 mph)

[GCANE]

Frying Pan Ocean Cam

[youtube]https://youtu.be/deG4NxkouGM[/youtube]