WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

Mighty-fine looking typhoon. Should be really good once the sun sets #diurnalmax

[euro6208]

[aperson]

Eye is the warmest I've seen it during its lifespan now

[Highteeld]

Starting to look like a cat 5 again. i bet it will get at least t 7.0 tonite over the WPAC, unless another ERC rapidly decays maria again

[aperson]

Starting to look like a cat 5 again. i bet it will get at least t 7.0 tonite over the WPAC, unless another ERC rapidly decays maria again

Eye pattern with W ring = 6.0 with +1.0 eye adjustment for WMG eye should make it a 7.0 right now. It's slowly trying to fill in a CMG ring but I'm not sure if it will or not.

[doomhaMwx]

[NotoSans]

JMA back to 105kt corresponding to a T7.0 intensity. JTWC also at T7.0 at 06Z.

[doomhaMwx]

105kts 915mb by JMA @ 06Z...

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 8 July 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 8 July>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N19°55' (19.9°)
E137°50' (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 390 km (210 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 080625

A. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (MARIA)

B. 08/0600Z

C. 19.84N

D. 137.76E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET 6.5. PT 7.0. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 1.0
OVER 6 HOURS) BASED ON CONFIDENT DT, SYMMETRIC EYE AND CNVCTN.
EYE DIAMTER 27NM.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

[Twisted-core]

cool gravity waves
wow really photographic now. 145kt storm now?



00zEC

[shah83]

The 0630 image is a beaut.

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like JTWC is going with 135kts @ 06Z despite getting T7.0 ...

10W MARIA 180708 0600 19.8N 137.8E WPAC 135 919

[1900hurricane]

JTWC up to 135 kt for 06Z, although I think we're beginning some steady state category 5 action now. Regardless, ACE is now north of 20 units at 06Z.

[Kingarabian]

The WPAC is a beast, I tell you. Hand's down. Now let's hope she dies out before she reaches land.

[1900hurricane]

And the reason I say steady state is because I'm not seeing any real hints of eyewall replacement in any of the latest microwave images (although the recent ones have been pretty low resolution).

[euro6208]

Too low. I'd say 145 to 150 knots.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC up to 135 kt for 06Z, although I think we're beginning some steady state category 5 action now. Regardless, ACE is now north of 20 units at 06Z.

I'm guessing this could be a 40+ ACE storm. Maria could at least rival last year's Maria. Certainly at least a category 4-5 for the next 3 days.

[1900hurricane]

It could be, but Maria doesn't have too much room left. It would basically have to maintain 140 kt all the way to Taiwan for it to do so.

[1900hurricane]

Overall structure reminds me a bit of Jangmi '08 right now.

[euro6208]

Wow