31W YUTU 181026 0000 16.9N 140.3E WPAC 130 926
WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
BT revised, increased to 130
31W YUTU 181026 0000 16.9N 140.3E WPAC 130 926
31W YUTU 181026 0000 16.9N 140.3E WPAC 130 926
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Cunxi Huang
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
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2006 SuTY SAOMAI | 2009 TY LINFA | 2010 TY FANAPI | 2010 SuTY MEGI | 2016 SuTY MERANTI | 2019 SuTY LEKIMA
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
Center Temp : +2.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.8C
Eye temp is on the positive side again.
Eye temp is on the positive side again.
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
Yutu is actually looking a little annularesque at the moment.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
Its current structure actually reminds me a bit of Typhoon Koppu in 2015.
Btw, does anyone have access to UKMET's latest run for Yutu?
Btw, does anyone have access to UKMET's latest run for Yutu?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
dexterlabio wrote:Btw, does anyone have access to UKMET's latest run for Yutu?
It would be out by 04z
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
If the euro run were to verify, it will be traversing that very high octane heat content. Scary.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 903 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, SYMMETRIC
EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN OBLONG EYE. ADDITIONALLY, A 260033Z AMSU
89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A 40NM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, THEREFORE, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER, RECENT ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE TROCHOIDAL TRACK MOTION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10
TO 15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST OUTFLOW WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH (130 KNOTS) BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 127 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH A 252137Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 128 KNOTS. STY 31W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A BREAK IN THE STR LOCATED SOUTH OF HONSHU
(NORTH OF THE SYSTEM) ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, WEAK MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE BREAK IN THE STR THROUGH TAU 36, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 36 AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND A BROAD
MIDLATITUDE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALLOWS THE STR TO RE-BUILD. EXCLUDING
THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS, COAMPS-TC (CTCX) AND NAVGEM, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 170NM SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEAR-STY
STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 12 AS THE EYEWALL RE-STRENGTHENS AND THE EYE
CONTRACTS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
TRACK WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF MODEL GUIDANCE. ECMWF, EEMN,
UKMET, JGSM, AFUM, GFS, AEMN AND HWRF INDICATE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
(OVER LUZON) TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (TOWARD THE LUZON STRAIT) TRACK.
NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC (CTCX) CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UNLIKELY RECURVE
SCENARIO. BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MODEL FIELDS FROM BOTH CLUSTERS, THE
RE-CURVE SCENARIO IS ASSESSED AS UNLIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
FAVORS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE STR AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF TAIWAN. BASED ON THE
BIFURCATION IN THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND LARGE OVERALL SPREAD, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 903 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, SYMMETRIC
EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN OBLONG EYE. ADDITIONALLY, A 260033Z AMSU
89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A 40NM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, THEREFORE, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER, RECENT ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE TROCHOIDAL TRACK MOTION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10
TO 15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST OUTFLOW WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH (130 KNOTS) BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 127 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH A 252137Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 128 KNOTS. STY 31W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A BREAK IN THE STR LOCATED SOUTH OF HONSHU
(NORTH OF THE SYSTEM) ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, WEAK MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE BREAK IN THE STR THROUGH TAU 36, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 36 AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND A BROAD
MIDLATITUDE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALLOWS THE STR TO RE-BUILD. EXCLUDING
THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS, COAMPS-TC (CTCX) AND NAVGEM, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 170NM SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEAR-STY
STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 12 AS THE EYEWALL RE-STRENGTHENS AND THE EYE
CONTRACTS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
TRACK WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF MODEL GUIDANCE. ECMWF, EEMN,
UKMET, JGSM, AFUM, GFS, AEMN AND HWRF INDICATE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
(OVER LUZON) TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (TOWARD THE LUZON STRAIT) TRACK.
NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC (CTCX) CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UNLIKELY RECURVE
SCENARIO. BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MODEL FIELDS FROM BOTH CLUSTERS, THE
RE-CURVE SCENARIO IS ASSESSED AS UNLIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
FAVORS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE STR AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF TAIWAN. BASED ON THE
BIFURCATION IN THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND LARGE OVERALL SPREAD, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific
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https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1055667009525026821
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1055669138809647104
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1055669138809647104
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
FXXT03 EGRR 260357
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.10.2018
TYPHOON YUTU ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 140.3E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.10.2018 16.6N 140.3E INTENSE
12UTC 26.10.2018 16.9N 137.6E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.10.2018 17.4N 134.4E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2018 17.8N 131.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2018 18.0N 129.6E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.10.2018 18.0N 127.8E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.10.2018 17.4N 126.3E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.10.2018 16.9N 124.7E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.10.2018 16.4N 122.6E INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.10.2018 16.1N 120.7E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.10.2018 16.3N 119.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.10.2018 16.6N 117.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2018 16.7N 116.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.10.2018
TYPHOON YUTU ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 140.3E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.10.2018 16.6N 140.3E INTENSE
12UTC 26.10.2018 16.9N 137.6E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.10.2018 17.4N 134.4E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2018 17.8N 131.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2018 18.0N 129.6E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.10.2018 18.0N 127.8E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.10.2018 17.4N 126.3E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.10.2018 16.9N 124.7E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.10.2018 16.4N 122.6E INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.10.2018 16.1N 120.7E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.10.2018 16.3N 119.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.10.2018 16.6N 117.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2018 16.7N 116.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
There is an impressive pinwheel eye just below the remnant clouds.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
GFS 00z landfall
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3617
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote:FXXT03 EGRR 260357
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.10.2018
TYPHOON YUTU ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 140.3E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.10.2018 16.6N 140.3E INTENSE
12UTC 26.10.2018 16.9N 137.6E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.10.2018 17.4N 134.4E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2018 17.8N 131.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2018 18.0N 129.6E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.10.2018 18.0N 127.8E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.10.2018 17.4N 126.3E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.10.2018 16.9N 124.7E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.10.2018 16.4N 122.6E INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.10.2018 16.1N 120.7E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.10.2018 16.3N 119.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.10.2018 16.6N 117.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.11.2018 16.7N 116.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
Damn, if that verifies. I was there just a week ago - touring along the coast.
Last edited by mrbagyo on Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
JMA (the agency) has been consistent for the past 24 hours predicting a landfall, and indicating some subsequent reintensification after some weakening. The ECMWF and GFS both agree on a landfall, and further strengthening before that.
Why is the JTWC insisting on a recurve and weakening?
Why is the JTWC insisting on a recurve and weakening?
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
Probably a cat 5 again, if not, very close.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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mrbagyo
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
2018OCT26 054000 6.8 920.1 134.8 6.8 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.73 -76.76 EYE 26 IR 72.1 16.96 -139.04 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
1 confirmed dead in Saipan. Woman took shelter in an abandon house.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon
An annular typhoon in warm SSTs?
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
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