ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

What a day it has been! We saw about 4-5 feet of surge in the bay. A few trees down and roads are covered with debris but it looks like my area survived with no structural damage, I dont know why they even issued evac orders for my county, I didn't leave and I'm glad I didn't. My prayers are with our neighbors to the east, looks like lots and lots of destruction. What a storm that was crazy to track, I remember when people were doubting it to even become a cat 1. Remember when we all laughed at the HWRF model?

They issued evacs because you were in the cone and hurricane forecasts aren't perfect. While the NHC did a great job with this track there have been storms in this area that did not follow instructions.

[funster]

Yes, looks like Albany could hit pretty hard. Shocking it has held together so far inland.

[supercane4867]

6PM postion update from NHC made Michael as the first major hurricane to hit GA since 1898. I think it could be downgraded to CAT2 in the final best track, however.

[johngaltfla]

What a day it has been! We saw about 4-5 feet of surge in the bay. A few trees down and roads are covered with debris but it looks like my area survived with no structural damage, I dont know why they even issued evac orders for my county, I didn't leave and I'm glad I didn't. My prayers are with our neighbors to the east, looks like lots and lots of destruction. What a storm that was crazy to track, I remember when people were doubting it to even become a cat 1. Remember when we all laughed at the HWRF model?

They issued evacs because you were in the cone and hurricane forecasts aren't perfect. While the NHC did a great job with this track there have been storms in this area that did not follow instructions.

The NHC was outstanding. Intensity forecasting still is a huge guesstimate but the potential for strengthening was always there with the warm water, low shear, and lack of inhibiting factors with the fast forward speed. Ever since Charley went from 115 mph to 145 mph in less than 4 hours and scared the hell out of us (I will ride out up to a low Cat 3, after that I am gone), I learned to respect GOM storms. I hope now everyone will.

[p1nheadlarry]

Any info on Wewa/northern Gulf county? Small so not sure about any weather stations and it's where Tupelo honey comes from (also in neighboring Calhoun co)

[supercane4867]

Catastraphic wind damage in Panama City. Very impressive consider they were in weaker side of eyewall

[Jag95]

Good one! Some people make comments without looking at the evidence & reports available.
Nothing against cycloneall, but there was a lot proof that Michael was going to continue to intensify despite the "windshear maps" and dry air to its west:
1. Continuing Dropsondes sampling the atmosphere indicated that there was no windshear or very little around its circulation for the dry air to get induced into its core.
2. Global Models (excluding the crappy CMC) were persistent in continuing intensification until landfall.
3. Michael was intensifying even faster than what the global models were forecasting.
4. Strong MJO is currently in our side of the world.
5. Very warm SSTs on its track.
6. No cool dry continental surface air on its way to the north.
7. And most important, the NHC forecasters forecasted that it was going to continue to intensify through the night.

I was aware of the pros in favor of intensification to landfall but for dozens of others in the past there was too (Katrina). I also leaned towards climo this time. Didn't know the MJO was on the ATL side currently. I do recall though Hurricane Gustav in 2008 looked pretty bad for the Gulf coast but was forecast to not be too devastating because of increasing windshear and some other factors.

Same here. When I went to bed last night it looked like dryer air had encircled 3/4 of the CDO. I though for sure it had leveled off. I like mine medium rare.

[ObsessedMiami]

Any info on Wewa/northern Gulf county? Small so not sure about any weather stations and it's where Tupelo honey comes from (also in neighboring Calhoun co)

Hearing from my kin in Liberty County (neighboring Calhoun) lots of roofs off and trees down. My brother sheltered in a new school and the windows blew in and lots of structural damage to the school. Curfew in effect. No word on outlying national forest areas. I assume trees all over the road

[birdwomn]

What a day it has been! We saw about 4-5 feet of surge in the bay. A few trees down and roads are covered with debris but it looks like my area survived with no structural damage, I dont know why they even issued evac orders for my county, I didn't leave and I'm glad I didn't. My prayers are with our neighbors to the east, looks like lots and lots of destruction. What a storm that was crazy to track, I remember when people were doubting it to even become a cat 1. Remember when we all laughed at the HWRF model?

They issued evacs because you were in the cone and hurricane forecasts aren't perfect. While the NHC did a great job with this track there have been storms in this area that did not follow instructions.

The NHC was outstanding. Intensity forecasting still is a huge guesstimate but the potential for strengthening was always there with the warm water, low shear, and lack of inhibiting factors with the fast forward speed. Ever since Charley went from 115 mph to 145 mph in less than 4 hours and scared the hell out of us (I will ride out up to a low Cat 3, after that I am gone), I learned to respect GOM storms. I hope now everyone will.

The issue with the plan to "ride out up to ____" is that there is still a great deal to learn about predicting strength. Example A: Michael
Very few people were calling for Michael to continue strengthening even as it made landfall.

[johngaltfla]

They issued evacs because you were in the cone and hurricane forecasts aren't perfect. While the NHC did a great job with this track there have been storms in this area that did not follow instructions.

The NHC was outstanding. Intensity forecasting still is a huge guesstimate but the potential for strengthening was always there with the warm water, low shear, and lack of inhibiting factors with the fast forward speed. Ever since Charley went from 115 mph to 145 mph in less than 4 hours and scared the hell out of us (I will ride out up to a low Cat 3, after that I am gone), I learned to respect GOM storms. I hope now everyone will.

The issue with the plan to "ride out up to ____" is that there is still a great deal to learn about predicting strength. Example A: Michael
Very few people were calling for Michael to continue strengthening even as it made landfall.

GOM storms are strange birds. We've experienced Cat 2s dissipating 1 day before landfall and Cat 1s becoming Cat 3s and veering off to the Florida Panhandle or Louisiana. Paying attention and respect is the key.

[supercane4867]

More photos of storm surge damage in Mexico Beach








 https://twitter.com/chrisdolcewx/status/1050155122553225219

[TheStormExpert]

Any images out of PCB?

[PandaCitrus]

Something I noticed on radar as Michael was landfalling was the most intense banding was on the western side the whole time which was interesting. This probably brought down a lot of high gusts to what is typically the weak side.

[MGC]

Mexico Beach looks like the Mississippi Coast after Katrina. Pretty serious wind damage in Panama City.

I never want to see another post about all major hurricanes weaken before they hit the north gulf coast. I'm sure some people decided to stay because they thought it would fall apart just like all the other one do.....MGC

[Abdullah]

Here's a graph of how many people are in all of the counties that the eye has gone through(excluding Houston in Alabama)

The highest one has Albany in it. The eye's been going through mostly swampland and towns(seriously must stink being there right now, far off the grid.), but now it's going to get close to a city.

Good thing it's weakened considerably by now.

Hope everyone's safe in the Panhandle up there.

I used the power of google to make this.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Wow. Mexico Beach looks really bad. I knew it would though...sadly. I will (maybe) be back down there in 2 weeks, depending on my clients status in Panama City. Reminds me so much of the old Topsail Island - residential home town kind of beach before Fran and after...Maybe much worse. Prayers for the Panhandle folks others still in the path.

[PandaCitrus]

Lots of major structural damage in Marianna which is WELL INLAND near I-10 in Jackson County. Also reports roof off the hospital, 911 Ops Center, Sherriffs Office Building.

 https://twitter.com/JakeEshpeterWX/status/1050115841105248256




 https://twitter.com/dlb100b/status/1050126777765511182




 https://twitter.com/christianbwx/status/1050133017296015365




 https://twitter.com/dlb100b/status/1050143705708056581

[wxmann_91]

Good one! Some people make comments without looking at the evidence & reports available.
Nothing against cycloneall, but there was a lot proof that Michael was going to continue to intensify despite the "windshear maps" and dry air to its west:
1. Continuing Dropsondes sampling the atmosphere indicated that there was no windshear or very little around its circulation for the dry air to get induced into its core.
2. Global Models (excluding the crappy CMC) were persistent in continuing intensification until landfall.
3. Michael was intensifying even faster than what the global models were forecasting.
4. Strong MJO is currently in our side of the world.
5. Very warm SSTs on its track.
6. No cool dry continental surface air on its way to the north.
7. And most important, the NHC forecasters forecasted that it was going to continue to intensify through the night.

I was aware of the pros in favor of intensification to landfall but for dozens of others in the past there was too (Katrina). I also leaned towards climo this time. Didn't know the MJO was on the ATL side currently. I do recall though Hurricane Gustav in 2008 looked pretty bad for the Gulf coast but was forecast to not be too devastating because of increasing windshear and some other factors.

Note that for hurricanes Katrina and Gustav, the shear was increasing, but for Michael, the models consistently showed shear decreasing in the hours before landfall (which ended up coming to fruition). In fact, the GFS, Euro, and HWRF all projected Michael to significantly deepen leading up to landfall, which is of course what happened.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/wsvn/status/1050129477328691201




 https://twitter.com/jrenglish/status/1050138339041529857

[Steve]

Any images out of PCB?

Go to the News Herald site and obviously Google.

Also, I’d like to throw it up for former Panama City meteorolgist Jason Kelly aka Wxman007 who was a long time poster here and a television weather authority and a friend. He would have been a prime resource. He’s been gone two years and passed on at the way too early age of 45. But no PC/PCB major event should go by without a little thought and remembrance.