WPAC: JONGDARI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (JONGDARI)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT
SYSTEM THAT HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED, FUELED BY A NARROW EASTWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE
LLC FEATURE IN THE 37 GHZ 241806Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 AND A SATCON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.1. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A NARROW ZONE OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RELATIVE VWS (10-15 KNOTS) THAT IS OFFSET BY OUTFLOW. THERE
IS ALSO SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT CAUSED BY STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN STR ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OVER
THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ). ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR NOW
AT 28 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF
AN NER TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE NEAR- TO
MID-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID JUST OVER 30 NM LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AS A RESULT OF A WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE
BEST TRACK.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU
TAU 72 AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING NER. A
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. CONCURRENTLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR AND A SECONDARY STR TO ITS NORTHEAST WILL ELONGATE
AND DESCEND SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF HONSHU. THIS ORIENTATION WITH
TS 15W WILL ENHANCE OUTFLOW AND CONTRIBUTE TO ITS INTENSIFICATION TO
A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT DEVIATES FROM THE MODEL ENVELOPE FROM TAU 48
TO A DISTANCE OF 175 NM FROM TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AT TAU 72.
AFTER A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OFFSET THIS DEVIATION, THERE IS OVERALL
A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD AND
ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TS JONGDARI NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THEN
NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MADE LANDFALL NEAR
TOKYO, JAPAN. INCREASING VWS, PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, AND
COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, 15W WILL STILL
BE AT A SOLID TYPHOON INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL
OVER JAPAN. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED JAPANESE ALPS AND
THE COLD WATERS OF THE SOJ, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35 KNOTS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST,
LENDING AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

This is a new name. This is the one that replaces Sonamu after its early 2013 usage (sounded too similar to tsunami), correct?

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (JONGDARI)
WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI AND EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
COMPACT SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE, FUELED BY A NARROW
EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI
LOOP AND LINED UP WITH THE LLC FEATURE IN THE 242312Z AMSUB
MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 AND A SATCON
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.1 AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A NARROW
ZONE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RELATIVE VWS (10-15 KNOTS) THAT IS OFFSET
BY MODERATE OUTFLOW. THERE IS, HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT CAUSED BY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN STR ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ). ALONG-
TRACK SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR NOW AT 28 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A NER TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU
66 AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING NER. AFTERWARD,
THE SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD AND ASSUME STEERING AND
DRIVE TS JONGDARI NORTHWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD. A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. CONCURRENTLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BETWEEN THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED STRS WILL ELONGATE, CUT OFF, AND DESCEND SOUTHWARD TO
THE EAST OF HONSHU. THIS ORIENTATION WITH TS 15W WILL ENHANCE OUTFLOW
AND CONTRIBUTE TO ITS INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU
72. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT
PROGRESSIVELY DEVIATES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE TO A
DISTANCE OF 135 NM AT TAU 72. AFTER A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OFFSET
THIS DEVIATION, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS JONGDARI - STEERED BY A BUILDING STR TO THE
NORTHEAST - WILL CONTINUE ON NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
TOKYO, JAPAN, AROUND TAU 90, CROSS HONSHU, THEN EXIT WESTWARD INTO
THE SOJ. INCREASING VWS, PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, AND
COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, 15W WILL STILL
BE AT A SOLID TYPHOON INTENSITY WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER JAPAN.
AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED JAPANESE ALPS AND THE
COLD WATERS OF THE SOJ, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT AFTER TAU 72, LENDING AN OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Jongdari's projected path is very unique if we compare it to the past TCs that came within 100 kms off Tokyo ( most are moving NE).

[euro6208]

Peak as a Cat 3 now.

WDPN35 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (JONGDARI)
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS EVIDENT IN A 250825Z WINDSAT
37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TS 15W WILL
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72 TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DURING THIS PERIOD,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ROBUST AS A STRONG UPPER LOW
DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 365NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A COMPLEX, EVOLVING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE EASTERN
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD LOW
POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU. THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
DURING THIS PHASE TRANSITIONS FROM THE NER TO A STRONG STR
POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. TO RE-EMPHASIZE, THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRAJECTORY AND TIMING
OF THIS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE TOWARD AND OVER HONSHU. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TS 15W IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER HONSHU AND THE
SEA OF JAPAN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS OVER LAND. OVERALL, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 251553
TCSWNP

A. 15W (JONGDARI)

B. 25/1430Z

C. 22.0N

D. 137.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...THIS ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. SYSTEM IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A
DT. MET AND PT ARE BOTH 4.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

25/0917Z 21.9N 137.2E SSMIS
25/1208Z 21.9N 137.2E AMSU


...HOSLEY

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

HWRF at peak.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1021979427566170117

[1900hurricane]

Structure isn't too bad, but convection is definitely weighted to the south side.

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (JONGDARI) WARNING
NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SMALL, CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 260036Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE
SHOWING DEEP BANDING WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 15W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH TAU 24. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48, TS 15W
WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE STEERING. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE
PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
HWRF. AFTER TAU 48, THE OUTFLOW WILL BE REDUCED AND A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 72 AT
WHICH POINT TS 15W WILL BEGIN LAND INTERACTION, WHICH WILL WEAKEN
THE CYCLONE CONSIDERABLY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO
INCREASE AS THE MEMBERS DIFFER ON WHEN THE STR TAKES OVER THE
PRIMARY STEERING. BY TAU 72, THE SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE WITH SEVERAL
MEMBERS BRINGING THE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH, TOWARD IWAKUNI, WHILE
THERE IS ONE MEMBER (HWRF) THAT BRINGS THE CYCLONE NORTH OF TOKYO.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, UNCERTAINTY IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE LARGE AS TS 15W BEGINS TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY
ANOTHER STR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
FORECAST TRACK. JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72, TS 15W IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVER HONSHU INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND.
OVERALL, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW, PARTICULARLY IN THE LATER
PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Twisted-core]

WTPQ20 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1812 JONGDARI (1812)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 22.6N 139.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 26.1N 143.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 280600UTC 33.7N 140.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 290600UTC 36.0N 133.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

recovered at: 2018-07-26 0815Z

WTPQ30 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 1812 JONGDARI (1812)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS JONGDARI IS LOCATED AT 22.6N, 139.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT72. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

[1900hurricane]

Convection is hiding a microwave eye currently.

[euro6208]

Looks like JMA is calling this a typhoon but missed Wukong which had a somewhat well defined eye...

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

TY 1812 (Jongdari)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 26 July 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 26 July>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°25' (23.4°)
E140°10' (140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°55' (24.9°)
E142°10' (142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 27 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°20' (28.3°)
E144°10' (144.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 28 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°20' (34.3°)
E138°10' (138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 29 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N35°05' (35.1°)
E130°50' (130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

[euro6208]

Up to 60 knots 1 min...


15W JONGDARI 180726 1200 23.7N 140.1E WPAC 60 979

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like JMA is calling this a typhoon but missed Wukong which had a somewhat well defined eye...

(1) Not all storms that have eyes are typhoons
(2) Neither of them (JMA, JTWC) are always right
(3) Storms aren't always underestimated. They could be overestimated. Just because it looks good, doesn't mean it is as strong. Hurricane Bill had cat 3 winds according to recon and yet Dvorak insisted on giving it T7.0
(4) Wukong may have had an eye, but its convection was very weak. Light gray at best. (-50°C at its coolest point)
(5) Jongdari is on its way to become a powerful typhoon. In spite of its imperfections, it maintains a solid eyewall on microwave imagery and much deeper convection than Wukong.
(6) I won't be surprised if you ignore JMA. I use both, but I gravitate towards JMA.

Perhaps criticism towards an agency shouldn't be about your opinion or preference, but it should be constructive. And to note, their supercomputers are exponentially more powerful than yours.

[euro6208]

Damn calm down. JTWC is only 5 knots below typhoon strength. JMA was a whole 10 knots below the status for Wukong...FYI 55 knots 10 min is already a typhoon on the SSHS scale for Wukong.

Why even compare this with Bill a 3 when Jongdari is much weaker?

Why criticize me for saying such a thing? Too sensitive?

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (JONGDARI) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (JONGDARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TS 15W HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND HAS
DEEP AND SYMMETRIC CONVECTION LOCATED ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 260904Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS GOOD LOW LEVEL BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM RJTD ALONG WITH A
260905Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS
15W HAS MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29
AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 15W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NER THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD BY TAU 24. DURING THIS TIME FRAME TS 15W WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY TO 95 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SUPPORT
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU
24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME
THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AS TS 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND
THEN WESTWARD. TS 15W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN JAPAN AFTER TAU 48 AND
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THERE IS
STILL A 160NM SPREAD BY TAU 48, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, A STR LOCATED OVER CHINA WILL BUILD AND BECOME
THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. TS 15W WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS A RESULT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER,
TS 15W WILL TRACK OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
SEA OF JAPAN. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND TRACK JUST
SOUTH OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:lol: Damn calm down. JTWC is only 5 knots below typhoon strength. JMA was a whole 10 knots below the status for Wukong...FYI 55 knots 10 min is already a typhoon on the SSHS scale for Wukong.

Why even compare this with Bill a 3 when Jongdari is much weaker?

Why criticize me for saying such a thing? Too sensitive?

I mean, it's like the 10000th time you've said *this* should be stronger---to hyperbolic levels, without any further explanation other than "it looks better than this."

And you're kinda missing the point. I meant storms can look stronger than what they actually are, or weaker. There is no monopoly. I wanted to help your confusion, given the presence of a dichotomy here.

If JMA goes stronger than the JTWC = "how come *other storm* isn't a typhoon?*
If JTWC goes stronger than JMA = "they're underestimating this!"

I've been in this forum for about 6 years, I have evolved actually. I believe we should make our discussions productive and rational, not based on subjective "looks" without basis. Yes, there is no recon, but if it looks a cat 5 or whatever, doesn't mean it is. End the hyperbole.

I'm not criticizing you, I'm giving you some words of kindness. I mean, I tried to explain before but you mentioned the JTWC.

FYI, I memorized the SSHS when I was 10. And no, I'm not taking meteorology---I did wind conversion studies; I had to study these because we are vulnerable to typhoons. The impacts would even be amplified in the area I live, considering the infrastructure and population density of >10,000 sq/km.

No hate bro