ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bjackrian]

Up to 52kt sustained and a peak gust of 69 kt at Cape Lookout.

Update: 57 kts sustained at 1900Z.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=CLKN7

[craptacular]

When is next recon?

Scheduled to take off shortly (3pm EDT) and get first center fix at 4:30pm EDT. They are operating on a schedule so that there shouldn't be more than 3 hours between the last fix of one flight and the first fix of the next flight.

They are already on their way in. Another waiting for takeoff.

I should have been more clear. The one that was already airborne (Mission 15) is the NOAA Gulfstream flying around at high levels to get atmospheric data around Florence. The one that just took off (Mission 16) is the AF Hercules that will fly through the eye at lower levels (700mb, ~9-10K feet) and provide the center fixes and min pressures.

[BobHarlem]

Man, Flo's looking a lot better on Radar than it did earlier today.

[Condor]

Eyes right in the middle of the gulf stream at the moment

[BobHarlem]

http://i64.tinypic.com/2vd1tls.jpg

Storm surge getting fairly high now in Oriental https://t.co/fDFocF7TFQ
Mark Sudduth

Before shot



Time lapse of the above here.

[ronjon]

Eye tightening up on RAD - starting to get wrap around bands on east side. Frictional interaction with land combined with gulf stream seems to be deepening Flo.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/nc/morehead-city/mhx/?region=clt

[edu2703]

Live stream cameras

https://codepen.io/alexneises/full/qMKROv/

[meriland29]

Are winds around her COC picking up? So hard to tell when the energy spreads out too instead.

[NDG]

Last 2 hours if it has moved 5 miles is probably a lot.

[Zarniwoop]

Wow, in an hour the outer eyewall has almost entirely closed off. Radar indicates this thing is tightening rapidly. May see some explosive growth this afternoon with the outer wall taking over

Storm is still a bit of a mess. Its seems to be too late for explosive growth. Its going to be unpleasant regardless of whether or not the winds change by 5-10 mph. Interested in expert opinions if they disagree.

I am not an expert. Heck, I'm not an intermediate. Please refer to the NHC products when making decisions.

[sittingduck]

If you haven't looked lately - the flag is getting shredded and the waves are wild
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4Nxk ... e=youtu.be

[bg1]

Eye tightening up on RAD - starting to get wrap around bands on east side. Frictional interaction with land combined with gulf stream seems to be deepening Flo.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/nc/morehead-city/mhx/?region=clt

I remember this happened with Ike in 2008 right before landfall. I also heard that due to the energy becoming more concentrated, the storm surge was a bit lower than it would have otherwise. Is this true?

[galaxy401]

Outer rainbands are about to hit Wilmington. It's just the beginning for them. Could last a long time.

[chris_fit]

Recon up in the air - It defintely looks like she got her act together some more - recon will confirm within an hour

[gfsperpendicular]

Inner eyewall looks to be completed now. The outer eyewall is still very prominent and won't have time to contract before landfall which will just make things worse if I understand correctly. Bad situation for surge and rain.

[NDG]

Here come the possible tornadic cells rotating around on the northern quadrant towards shore.

[NC_Cyclone]

Wow, in an hour the outer eyewall has almost entirely closed off. Radar indicates this thing is tightening rapidly. May see some explosive growth this afternoon with the outer wall taking over

Storm is still a bit of a mess. Its seems to be too late for explosive growth. Its going to be unpleasant regardless of whether or not the winds change by 5-10 mph. Interested in expert opinions if they disagree.

I am not an expert. Heck, I'm not an intermediate. Please refer to the NHC products when making decisions.

Yeah has TONS of work to do. But radar presentation looks way more impressive instead of the ragged dry air storm.

Looks like precip is very expansive. More so than most models. I think this is due to the weakening creating a “looser” storm and allowing the bands to spread out instead of being very tight.

This could result in some increase flooding threat inland

[artist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeffhampton56

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1040321558189879296

[Condor]