ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
The 12Z Euro is similar to the 0Z Euro and is a whopping 100 miles S of the 12Z GFS at hour 72 after hitting CHS almost dead-on! This may turn into a forecasting nightmare for places like CHS!
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
12Z Euro (incomplete)
1 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro is similar to the 0Z Euro and is a whopping 100 miles S of the 12Z GFS at hour 72 after hitting CHS almost dead-on! This may turn into a forecasting nightmare for places like CHS!
It's going to cause damage on both the NC and SC coastal areas.
0 likes
- tarheelprogrammer
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1793
- Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
- Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Rain maps for ECMWF?
0 likes
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
tolakram wrote:12Z Euro (incomplete)
https://i.imgur.com/AZVoerp.gif
That shows the run more accurately than the 12 hour incremental run map
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
The Euro runs have been running a little south of reality and I think are still barely south. However, the projected Euro track for the current time is near 300 degrees/aiming for Topsail even though it never gets there (WNW) and Flo has been moving 280 or an aim toward the NC/SC border. As a result, the Euro is getting close to no longer being south of reality and will get there shortly if a 290-300 direction doesn't resume soon.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
12Z EPS mean is still calling for a S SC hit with a higher % of the members vs the 0Z now staying offshore before coming back into lower SC. Also, there are now very few, if any, TS+ landfalls in GA.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS mean is still calling for a S SC hit with a higher % of the members vs the 0Z now staying offshore before coming back into lower SC. Also, there are now very few, if any, TS+ landfalls in GA.
And there was much rejoicing here in Tybee Island....but we're still gonna keep an eye out. Don't like that Euro is so persistent with more southerly dip, but feel confident (I.e. hoping) it is an outlier.
2 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
LarryWx wrote:The Euro runs have been running a little south of reality and I think are still barely south. However, the projected Euro track for the current time is near 300 degrees/aiming for Topsail even though it never gets there (WNW) and Flo has been moving 280 or an aim toward the NC/SC border. As a result, the Euro is getting close to no longer being south of reality and will get there shortly if a 290-300 direction doesn't resume soon.
http://www.windalert.com/storm/florence#34.6,-78.408,7,8
Looks to me to be following the track line, even wobbling more North at the end of this last 10 minutes.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
pgoss11 wrote:NHC not buying into the 12Z Euro track SW down the coast.
They don't have to yet. The storm is moving so slow they have time to adjust the track south if necessary.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
SCHawkFan wrote:pgoss11 wrote:NHC not buying into the 12Z Euro track SW down the coast.
They don't have to yet. The storm is moving so slow they have time to adjust the track south if necessary.
They have to be careful not to over adjust so their isn't any back and forth.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2941
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Blinhart wrote:SCHawkFan wrote:pgoss11 wrote:NHC not buying into the 12Z Euro track SW down the coast.
They don't have to yet. The storm is moving so slow they have time to adjust the track south if necessary.
They have to be careful not to over adjust so their isn't any back and forth.
The 18Z GFS trended closer to the 12z Euro, has Florence moving southwest down the SC coast.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:Blinhart wrote:SCHawkFan wrote:
They don't have to yet. The storm is moving so slow they have time to adjust the track south if necessary.
They have to be careful not to over adjust so their isn't any back and forth.
The 18Z GFS trended closer to the 12z Euro, has Florence moving southwest down the SC coast.
Yes it did. Wonder what the NHC 11:00 PM update and track will do.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
18Z HWRF also closer to Euro just inland heading down the SC coastline.
0 likes
- mcheer23
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 427
- Age: 31
- Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:24 pm
- Location: Sugar Land, Texas
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Ken711 wrote:18Z HWRF also closer to Euro just inland heading down the SC coastline.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2018091312/hwrf_ref_06L_14.png
Thats 12z
18z rolls in about an hour
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
18Z GFS now has the offshore solution but brings it onshore in northern SC.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7019
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: RE: Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Remember when the gfs was to the right?
tolakram wrote:18Z GFS now has the offshore solution but brings it onshore in northern SC.
https://i.imgur.com/fXS4xtP.gif
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Would you say to expect it somewhat further left due to the right bias of the GFS? Would that put Charleston back into play?
0 likes
FAA ATP
Belize UAS Operator
Belize UAS Operator
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests