ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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meriland29
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4021 Postby meriland29 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:42 pm

How far away (in time) is she from the coast and also how long will it be before she starts upwelling cold waters?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4022 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:44 pm

Flo was fighting a PV Streamer for the ULL over FL all morning.
Just broke away from it.


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4023 Postby taveanator » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:47 pm

Man, it looks like she just stopped on a dime. Crazy......

https://imgur.com/a/U0hkPb9
Last edited by taveanator on Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:52 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4024 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:47 pm

All this storm surge flooding pictures & videos is going to be nothing compared to the images we are going to see by tomorrow and Saturday, they are going to have constant onshore winds for hours and hours piling up the water onshore. :double:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4025 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:48 pm

Steady TS winds at Frying Pan Shoals at edge of outer bands...Gusting over 60mph...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4026 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:48 pm

Just about all filled in on velocity too.
That was quick.
PV Streamer cutoff and break of Convective Inhibition worked well.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4027 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:48 pm

Yeah Florence has rapidly stalled. Going to be a long nightmare for the North Carolina coast...
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4028 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:50 pm

Gulf Steam is pumping a lot of hot water into her.
I don't think upwelling will inhibit much.
Hugo dropped 20mb in the same conditions.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4029 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:50 pm

Meso vortex signatures in that band coming in east of Morehead City.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/nc/morehead-city/mhx/?region=clt
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4030 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:51 pm

The bad thing is she starts to stall over Gulfstream instead of shallow shelf waters. This may limit upwelling effects.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4032 Postby p1nheadlarry » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:55 pm

GCANE wrote:Gulf Steam is pumping a lot of hot water into her.
I don't think upwelling will inhibit much.
Hugo dropped 20mb in the same conditions.


Moving much quicker though, no upwelling
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4033 Postby gfsperpendicular » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:55 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:
GCANE wrote:Gulf Steam is pumping a lot of hot water into her.
I don't think upwelling will inhibit much.
Hugo dropped 20mb in the same conditions.


Moving much quicker though, no upwelling


I thought she had slowed down noticeably :double:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4034 Postby p1nheadlarry » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:57 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
GCANE wrote:Gulf Steam is pumping a lot of hot water into her.
I don't think upwelling will inhibit much.
Hugo dropped 20mb in the same conditions.


Moving much quicker though, no upwelling


I thought she had slowed down noticeably :double:


Referring to Hugo not Florence. Should have made that more clear sorry.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4035 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:59 pm

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Storm surge getting fairly high now in Oriental
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4036 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:59 pm

18z soundings show 593-594 dm heights to the north of Florence staying in place since this morning over eastern VA bridging west across into TN/KY, the reason why it stopped on its NW heading this morning.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4037 Postby meriland29 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:00 pm

I was extremely fearful that she would stall further outside of the coast. I knew she was anticipated to stall right along the coast or at least in the shallow area near the coast causing her to upwell, but she looks like she stopped to almost a complete halt right over that gulf stream with nothing really to keep her from doing what she wants. This is bad.... it was already going to be really bad, but this makes it otherworldly.

I am no professioal ..but it does look like her eye is closed, and she is definitely angry
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4038 Postby jasons2k » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:00 pm

GCANE wrote:Gulf Steam is pumping a lot of hot water into her.
I don't think upwelling will inhibit much.
Hugo dropped 20mb in the same conditions.


The Gulf Stream is also a swift current. I don't think there will be as much upwelling as some have led on...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4039 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:01 pm

First center pass from recon may find slightly lower pressure. Probably not much increase in windspeeds
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4040 Postby meriland29 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:02 pm

Is she supposed to reach the coast tonight or does it look like she will stall over the gulf S for the night...???
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