ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

This is not really strengthening and probably is not going to strengthen. I've never seen so many posts about "this thing's about to blow up", "looking much better, intensification is coming" for 2 days. The only thing happening is an expanding wind field (which, in a way, increases the severity of the storm). But, as far as overall max winds, it's about down to a Cat 1, SFMR below 80 kt and the reduction for flight-level winds puts the estimate around 85 kt (which is NHC intensity). If the winds do somehow pick up, I'll eat my hat

[supercane4867]

Pressure gradient is falling apart. Any strengthening from now on should be reflected only in the expansion of windfield

[NDG]

Not a bad looking Cat 2 hurricane.

[Steve]

[wx98]

Not concerned about 120 mph wind. Truck handles that fine.

Until something hits it.

I’d be more concerned about debris...

Jason hit the nail on the head

"It's not THAT the wind is blowing... it's WHAT the wind is blowing" -Ron White

Ole Hurricane Georges

[artist]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 76.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

[SoupBone]

Not the best day ever to fish the Bogue Inlet Pier http://www.ebmcdn.net/webcast/flash/bog ... frame.html

Elegant Nails and Spa getting some free Flo advertising.

[artist]

Mark Sudduth update

[youtube]https://youtu.be/yhB2fWEfQ-w[/youtube]

[artist]

Fox News
Fox News
@FoxNews
·
2m
Duke Energy spokesman Jeff Brooks on
#HurricaneFlorence
: "We anticipate that we could see as many as 75 percent of our customer base out of power as part of this storm."

[utweather]

Actual track since 11 AM EDT:
11 AM 33.4, 75.5
Noon 33.5, 75.7
1 PM 33.6 75.9
2 PM 33.6 76.0
3 PM 33.6 76.1
4 PM 33.7 76.1


NHC Projected for 8 PM: 33.9 76.6
NHC Projected for 8 AM: 34.2 77.8

It looks like at 8 PM it should be close to 33.9 N but 76.6 will be tough. So, it will most likely verify east of the 8 PM projection.

Yeah it sure looks like Florence will stall out a bit farther off shore than anticipated. This is ominous news and she will have more time to feed from the Gulf Stream and posdibly strengthen a bit as well.

Its been in a weakening phase. I don't think anyone thought this would be 100 mph right now yesterday. Several alarming cat5 projections though. Do you think it could possibly weaken more?

[psyclone]

This is not really strengthening and probably is not going to strengthen. I've never seen so many posts about "this thing's about to blow up", "looking much better, intensification is coming" for 2 days. The only thing happening is an expanding wind field (which, in a way, increases the severity of the storm). But, as far as overall max winds, it's about down to a Cat 1, SFMR below 80 kt and the reduction for flight-level winds puts the estimate around 85 kt (which is NHC intensity). If the winds do somehow pick up, I'll eat my hat

I agree. It's a large old big storm with a broad slack gradient. meaningful changes in intensity either direction at this point i suspect are highly unlikely. but it remains very dangerous due to its slow forward motion and monster size. it's going to bomb coastal areas over multiple high tide cycles and infict a huge toll via persistence. and as we all know...rain potential isn't correlated with strength but rather forward motion. this one is definitely a marathon and not a sprint.

[artist]

Posted on twitter

[p1nheadlarry]

Ok in regards to getting swept off your feet by surge.

If you’re going to play this game there are deduction points for getting your rear kicked by surge, soaking your camera and filling your tightie-whities with sand.

Being on the edge is difficult no doubt.

But dangit don’t make us chasers look bad lol.

I STILL have sand lodged in the inside of my car doors from chasing Arthur in 2014.

[northjaxpro]

Actual track since 11 AM EDT:
11 AM 33.4, 75.5
Noon 33.5, 75.7
1 PM 33.6 75.9
2 PM 33.6 76.0
3 PM 33.6 76.1
4 PM 33.7 76.1


NHC Projected for 8 PM: 33.9 76.6
NHC Projected for 8 AM: 34.2 77.8

It looks like at 8 PM it should be close to 33.9 N but 76.6 will be tough. So, it will most likely verify east of the 8 PM projection.

Yeah it sure looks like Florence will stall out a bit farther off shore than anticipated. This is ominous news and she will have more time to feed from the Gulf Stream and posdibly strengthen a bit as well.

And then go which way?

Florence could be in the process of dping a loop to the w/sw and make landfall over the South Carolina coast or crawl or drift inland. It could also drift or crawl ever so slowly over Eastern North Carolina/Nothern SC region.

It does not matter at this point, the devastation I fear will be very massive no matter the scenario for the people across the Carolinas. My prayers to everyone in the path of this beast.

[northjaxpro]

Actual track since 11 AM EDT:
11 AM 33.4, 75.5
Noon 33.5, 75.7
1 PM 33.6 75.9
2 PM 33.6 76.0
3 PM 33.6 76.1
4 PM 33.7 76.1


NHC Projected for 8 PM: 33.9 76.6
NHC Projected for 8 AM: 34.2 77.8

It looks like at 8 PM it should be close to 33.9 N but 76.6 will be tough. So, it will most likely verify east of the 8 PM projection.

Yeah it sure looks like Florence will stall out a bit farther off shore than anticipated. This is ominous news and she will have more time to feed from the Gulf Stream and posdibly strengthen a bit as well.

And then go which way?

Florence could be in the process of doing a loop to the w/sw and make landfall over the South Carolina coast or crawl or drift inland. It could also drift or crawl ever so slowly over Eastern North Carolina/Nothern SC region.

It does not matter at this point, the devastation I fear will be very massive no matter the scenario fir the people across the Carolinas. My prayers to everyone in the path of this beast!!

[thatsboot3101]

Just about at low tide now. Will rise ~4ft between now and 11pm.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

https://s33.postimg.cc/4am8h1edb/image.jpg
Posted on twitter

The states have faces, yet the hurricane (like almost everyone who draws cartoon hurricanes) doesn’t have a cartoon “eye.”

While it seems logical they just didn’t want to personify the hurricane as well, I have seen a lot of political cartoons where they draw the hurricanes as people beating up the state.

...My “stick a pupil in the eye” method has few followers for reasons unknown.

[northjaxpro]

Let me put it this way. We have a very well organized Category 2 tropical cyclone stalling over warm sea of the Gulf Stream. There is most definitely a possibility that she could intensify a bit more before landfall, especially given that she will have a bit longer out there to do so. It will not take much more at all for Florence to be a Cat. 3. I pray she does not, but that is still very plausible right now.

[Rail Dawg]

Heading back to Texas guys.

This has become what I call a “dirty storm”.

Would have liked to see the eye but with it stalling it’s not worth the wait.

Interesting journey learned some things as always.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Love seeing the dry air get to the core of this storm. Hopefully it continues. This would be a great storm for a seeding experiment .