ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it is strengthening now

I am afraid it is. Deep convection has just about completed wrapping back around the eyewall per radar and satellite imagery and pressure continues to fall.

Luckily it won't have too much time unless it stalls completely.

If it stalls completely, it would start upwelling. If it really wants to intensify, it has to drop southward and no more than brush Cape Fear.

[PavelGaborik10]

I'm really not seeing this thing intensifying. It's been firing off convention for well over 24 hours now, and the winds have cominuted to go down. No reason to believe it's going to srengthen much, if any now that it's very close to making landfall.

[supercane4867]

Colder cloudtops wrapping around the center

[wx98]

Winds back to 105 mph in the latest update. Although I do think it was a category 1 for a while earlier today.

Well guess I have to eat my hat...

[Hammy]

I'm really not seeing this thing intensifying. It's been firing off convention for well over 24 hours now, and the winds have cominuted to go down. No reason to believe it's going to srengthen much, if any now that it's very close to making landfall.

Was dealing with shear from the PV streamer (which it broke loose from this morning) and it's now over the Gulf Stream. And the winds are up.

[supercane4867]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1040357079826014208

He's making an irresponsible statement. Florence is showing some signs of intensification but it's nowhere close to RI

[BensonTCwatcher]

For a so called “weakening” storm, that massive burst of convection wrapping the eye sure looks healthy.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Winds back to 105 mph in the latest update. Although I do think it was a category 1 for a while earlier today.

Well guess I have to eat my hat...

Pictures are okay, but we'd prefer video.

[PavelGaborik10]

I'm really not seeing this thing intensifying. It's been firing off convention for well over 24 hours now, and the winds have cominuted to go down. No reason to believe it's going to srengthen much, if any now that it's very close to making landfall.

Was dealing with shear from the PV streamer (which it broke loose from this morning) and it's now over the Gulf Stream. And the winds are up.

I'm sure it'll ingest some dry air here shortly. Not to mention upswelling will be an issue soon.

CNN apparently showing storm surge up to 11 feet now, was 13 feet earlier, what gives with that?

[xironman]

If it stalls completely, it would start upwelling. If it really wants to intensify, it has to drop southward and no more than brush Cape Fear.

The thing about the gulf stream is even if the storm stalls the water keeps moving underneath it.

[JBCycloneStan]

Funny how badly NHC has been at predicting the intensity of this storm... they were expecting strengthening and it weakened before, and now that its close to the coast, they predicted weakening and now its strenghtening!

[thatsboot3101]

Surge in New Bern up the Neuse River. Camera sometimes moves but currently showing flooded parking lot

https://www.wnct.com/weather/webcams/li ... a-new-bern

[Blinhart]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1040357079826014208

He's making an irresponsible statement. Florence is showing some signs of intensification but it's nowhere close to RI

He is a pro-met, so don't question him. You might not agree but I have seen plenty of people get banned for less.

[Blinhart]

I'm really not seeing this thing intensifying. It's been firing off convention for well over 24 hours now, and the winds have cominuted to go down. No reason to believe it's going to srengthen much, if any now that it's very close to making landfall.

Was dealing with shear from the PV streamer (which it broke loose from this morning) and it's now over the Gulf Stream. And the winds are up.

I'm sure it'll ingest some dry air here shortly. Not to mention upswelling will be an issue soon.

CNN apparently showing mad surge up to 11 feet now, was 13 feet earlier, what gives with that?

There won't be that much upwelling, with the high pace of the Gulf Stream

[AdamFirst]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1040357079826014208

He's making an irresponsible statement. Florence is showing some signs of intensification but it's nowhere close to RI

He is a pro-met, so don't question him. You might not agree but I have seen plenty of people get banned for less.

I'll take the pro-met's word.

We obviously don't want RI, but call a spade a spade...the NHC even bumped intensity up from the 5 PM to 6 PM advisory. They see it too. The storm is at the very least maintaining strength right now. Jeff Piotrowski, who is on the beach in NC right now, said the same before his stream cut.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Funny how badly NHC has been at predicting the intensity of this storm... they were expecting strengthening and it weakened before, and now that its close to the coast, they predicted weakening and now its strenghtening!

I wouldn't lay this on the NHC. The models have been extremely erratic, the forecasting situation is complex, and what may be our best tool at TC intensity analysis, Microwave Imagery, we barely get once every six hours.

[meriland29]

So the 5pm update says 100 mph, but now it is officially 105 mph? Am I correct? If so I may be eating my words. I would be very surprised if she decides now to amp up

[JBCycloneStan]

Funny how badly NHC has been at predicting the intensity of this storm... they were expecting strengthening and it weakened before, and now that its close to the coast, they predicted weakening and now its strenghtening!

I wouldn't lay this on the NHC. The models have been extremely erratic, the forecasting situation is complex, and what may be our best tool at TC intensity analysis, Microwave Imagery, we barely get once every six hours.

Not blaming the NHC... It seems to be a very complex intensity estimation analysis. Just pointing out how unpredictable this storm has been.

[artist]

Off topic, but this crazy, several communities in Massachusetts hit with home explosions
http://www.eagletribune.com/region/expl ... f0bb4.html
Stay safe all

Delete if you need to

[meriland29]

Could someone post a recent water vapor loop?