WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Eric Webb]

It's going to be fun to watch the ACE count for Hector continue to slowly tick upward over the next few weeks as this storm tries to make a run at Ioke's record. We're up to 10.4 points so far & if the NHC forecast thru day 5 verifies we'll have about 32 points already in the bank just as Hector passes Hawaii.

Seeing as Ioke didn't start producing ACE until it passed Hawaii, Hector should have a pretty significant head start.

Yeah, a massive 30+ unit head start at that, if Hector gets stuck underneath the NW Pacific subtropical ridge that billows east of Japan after day 7-8, Ioke's record is probably in serious trouble.

[CrazyC83]

With that wave break, I would think that if Hector stays south of Hawaii, it will start to really lose latitude as it moves towards the dateline. Not unlike Irma in the tropical central Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

Gonzo will sample the environment around Hector on Monday. Hector will begin its WNW movement around the same time.

There's very little margin for track error here. If Hector gains more latitude than forecast, the Big Island could be under gun.

[Kingarabian]

Black brightness/color in the eyewall indicates an intense eyewall usually seen in Cat.4's.



Also looks like another moat is forming.

[NotSparta]

Black brightness/color in the eyewall indicates an intense eyewall usually seen in Cat.4's.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/S5EOlBD.jpg[/mg]

Also looks like another moat is forming.

Looks to be just a curved band for now, but it could start another EWRC eventually

[NotSparta]

Gonzo will sample the environment around Hector on Monday. Hector will begin its WNW movement around the same time.

There's very little margin for track error here. If Hector gains more latitude than forecast, the Big Island could be under gun.

Wow! Pressures are very low in the CP

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2018 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 14:13:12 N Lon : 133:41:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.2mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +9.2C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Eric Webb]

Oh man these mesovortices & vortex Rossby Waves in Hector's eyewall are so awesome to look at.

[KWT]

More than a few ECM ensemble members have this still going strong at day 15, some are getting mighty close to Japan as well by that point!

[Kingarabian]

Very low shear ahead of it. Only negative factor ahead of it is what appears to be drier air:



EPAC dry air is hard to figure out at times. Sometimes it hinders TC's, sometimes it doesn't. Otherwise, this could easily bomb out to Cat. 5.

[Alyono]

12Z HMON/HWRF seem to favor the Hawaiian Shear making an appearance around 155W

[Kingarabian]

12Z HMON/HWRF seem to favor the Hawaiian Shear making an appearance around 155W

There's a noticeable difference in the GFS compared to the Euro/UK. GFS brings Hector almost level with the Big Island and then moves it SSW away from the Big Island. Euro and UKMET don't take it that far north.

[cycloneye]

SAB remains at 6.0.

05/0000 UTC 14.3N 134.2W T6.0/6.0 HECTOR -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

Best Track stays at 110 kts.

EP, 10, 2018080500, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1342W, 110, 957, HU

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HECTOR EP102018 08/05/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 108 103 100 95 88 83 77 74 70 68 69
V (KT) LAND 110 109 108 103 100 95 88 83 77 74 70 68 69
V (KT) LGEM 110 109 105 101 97 90 87 84 84 82 78 76 76
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 9 4 7 6 2 3 2 1 3 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 1 1 0 -3 0 0 0 5 3 -1 -4
SHEAR DIR 350 302 304 340 19 41 87 6 353 217 57 26 60
SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.1 26.7 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.9 26.8 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 137 136 135 136 132 135 131 129 134 133 136
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 52 54 55 52 48 43 41 41 38 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 20 20 21 20 19 19 19 18 17 16
850 MB ENV VOR 40 50 48 51 52 42 44 37 19 29 43 44 52
200 MB DIV 13 -1 -9 -18 -8 -5 24 1 1 -16 5 -7 4
700-850 TADV -4 -7 -4 -5 -4 -3 -1 -5 -3 1 0 -2 0
LAND (KM) 2265 2154 2043 1922 1801 1513 1200 884 589 359 235 369 548
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2
LONG(DEG W) 134.2 135.3 136.3 137.5 138.6 141.3 144.2 147.2 150.2 153.1 155.9 158.6 161.3
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 14 14 15 14 13 13 13 12
HEAT CONTENT 4 9 16 15 10 11 14 5 3 6 12 21 28

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -27. -35. -40. -45. -47. -47.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -7. -10. -15. -22. -27. -33. -36. -40. -42. -41.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.3 134.2

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.80 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 696.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.03 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.9% 4.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ21 KNES 050019
TCSENP

A. 10E (HECTOR)

B. 05/0000Z

C. 14.3N

D. 134.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG, WHICH RESULTS
IN AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0 AND EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +1.0. DT IS 6.0. MET AND
PT ARE 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[NotSparta]

SW eyewall not looking too hot on new pass

[Twisted-core]

Navgem thinks HECTOR's vort will track further north on the run.


https://imgur.com/8ZF14gr

[cycloneye]

Come on GOES17!!

@NOAASatellitePA
NOAA's #GOES17, while still in its post-launch, check-out phase, captured the swirling eye of #HurricaneHector today, August 4, 2018. For the latest on this #hurricane: @NHC_Pacific

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellitePA/status/1025899569324929024

[Hurricaneman]

The people of Hilo need to watch this one carefully in the next few days and Tokyo needs to keep tabs on Hector as some models get awful close to there too