ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

It will be interesting to read the next NHC's forecast discussion on Isaac, 12z & 18z models all over.
Regardless of their forecast don't be surprised if it weakens, keeps its current intensity or strengthens when it reaches the islands since models are all over with it. All have equal chances.

[USVIKimmie]

Nothing except that its estimated latitude has dropped 3/10th of a degree! May just be a wobble, but we definitely need to keep an eye on this.

Hi abajan!
Any link or floater?
Tropical Tidbits not working

He put up a message earlier today that there was heavy traffic... probably just slow loading. I got this one up

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =ir-dvorak

[SoupBone]

It will be interesting to read the next NHC's forecast discussion on Isaac, 12z & 18z models all over.
Regardless of their forecast don't be surprised if it weakens, keeps its current intensity or strengthens when it reaches the islands since models are all over with it. All have equal chances.

I can tell you what my paid guys say. They think it weakens to a Tropical Storm right before impacting the islands, and then never recovers.

The culprit? High shear

[artist]

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/news.cfm?ID=8852
Hurricane Isaac Causes Cruise Ship Deviations in Caribbean
https://miami.cbslocal.com/2018/09/09/t ... ward-path/

[AubreyStorm]

Nothing except that its estimated latitude has dropped 3/10th of a degree! May just be a wobble, but we definitely need to keep an eye on this.

Hi abajan!
Any link or floater?
Tropical Tidbits not working

He put up a message earlier today that there was heavy traffic... probably just slow loading. I got this one up

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =ir-dvorak

Thanks!

[hipshot]

No changes in the 18z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2018091018, , BEST, 0, 144N, 444W, 65, 993, HU

Luis, this little boy does not want to give up. Waouw, he battles against dry air, shear, i'm so amazed Let's continue to monitor carefully as it trecks west.

Gusty, what is "Waouw"? I've seen this used several times, probably by you, and I can't figure it out.

[abajan]

No changes in the 18z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2018091018, , BEST, 0, 144N, 444W, 65, 993, HU

Nothing except that its estimated latitude has dropped 3/10th of a degree! May just be a wobble, but we definitely need to keep an eye on this.

Hi abajan!
Any link or floater?
Tropical Tidbits not working

Try this page: https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/

[artist]

As Hurricane Isaac heads to the island, Deputy Prime Minister, Reginald Austrie has called on Dominicans not to panic and decision relating to the storm may be taken tomorrow when the National Emergency Planning Organization (NEPO) meets and necessary instructions will be issued.

He said on Monday that some of the decisions may include suspension of school and shortening of working hours.

“As we continue to assess the situation a decision may be taken tomorrow when NEPO [National Emergency Planning Organization] meets at 9:00 am and all the necessary instructions will be issues then that may include the suspension of school and the shortening of working hours,” he revealed. This will be communicated to you by the local media from the Disaster Preparedness Office.”

He said Dominicans should not panic and should be making preparation for the arrival of the hurricane.

Austrie said when information is given, everyone should remain indoors.

“I am calling on all residents to remain indoors as much as possible and anyone found uselessly loitering the streets will be dealt with accordingly,” he stated. “Be aware that your personal safety, security, and well-being is paramount.”

Austrie went on to say that due to Hurricane Maria last year the country does not have the full complement of shelters, however available emergency shelters around the country may be opened by Wednesday.

He urged all Dominicans to please respect the emergency shelters “particularly this time when we will be using private homes and some public buildings.”

“The use of these buildings will determine how quickly we can return to normalcy following any storm,” he stated.

Austrie stated further that in areas where there are not sufficient shelters, residents are being asked in the neighbouring communities to please support and assist their neighbor.

“Please stock up on food and water for at least three days and all other items which the National Disaster Office have been advising you to have on hand,” he advised.

He called on business owners to secure all buildings in the City of Roseau and elsewhere around Dominica.
http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/home ... -dominica/

[msbee]

No changes in the 18z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2018091018, , BEST, 0, 144N, 444W, 65, 993, HU

Luis, this little boy does not want to give up. Waouw, he battles against dry air, shear, i'm so amazed Let's continue to monitor carefully as it trecks west.

Gusty, what is "Waouw"? I've seen this used several times, probably by you, and I can't figure it out.

LOL it's French for Wow!

[PTPatrick]

I have my eyes on him for sure. I feel like nobody quite knows what to do with it. The models either blow it up or fizzle it. So many things at play between it’s eventual strength/size and any interaction with islands, and weakness created by Flo. He is going to be a tough one.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...ISAAC CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 45.0W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Isaac has not become better organized today. The system continues
to display a ragged CDO with limited banding features. Dvorak
T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB continue to support an intensity of
65 kt. It is not clear why Isaac has failed to strengthen. Cirrus
motions and microwave imagery suggest some shear over the tropical
cyclone, which may have had some influence. Isaac should not
experience a significant increase in shear until about 48 hours, so
some strengthening is called for up to that time. Thereafter, the
dynamical guidance shows a significant increase in shear, which
should reverse the intensity trend. The HWRF model continues to be
an outlier in predicting significant intensification over the
Caribbean, whereas the other models do not. The official intensity
forecast is above the model consensus over the first half of the
period, and below the consensus during the latter part of the
period, considering the HWRF could be making the consensus too high
at days 3-5.

Isaac continues moving westward or 270/12 kt. There continue to be
a few differences among the track guidance, in particular the U.K.
Met, which shows the system turning northwestward to northward well
to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. The GFS takes the
system into the Caribbean but shows a more west-northwestward
motion. The official forecast stays close to the ECMWF and the
corrected consensus predictions, which is very similar to the
previous NHC track. Given the spread in the guidance, the
confidence in the details of the track forecast beyond the first
couple of days is larger than usual.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the intensity
forecast is greater than normal. Although Isaac is expected to
begin weakening when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still
likely to be at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the
islands.

2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor
Isaac during the next few days. Watches will likely be required for
portions of the Lesser Antilles tomorrow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 14.4N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 14.5N 47.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 14.6N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 14.8N 54.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 15.3N 60.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 15.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Gustywind]

No changes in the 18z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2018091018, , BEST, 0, 144N, 444W, 65, 993, HU

Luis, this little boy does not want to give up. Waouw, he battles against dry air, shear, i'm so amazed Let's continue to monitor carefully as it trecks west.

Gusty, what is "Waouw"? I've seen this used several times, probably by you, and I can't figure it out.

Hi my friend, waouw mean i'm suprised.

[Gustywind]

Luis, this little boy does not want to give up. Waouw, he battles against dry air, shear, i'm so amazed Let's continue to monitor carefully as it trecks west.

Gusty, what is "Waouw"? I've seen this used several times, probably by you, and I can't figure it out.

LOL it's French for Wow!

Thanks Barbara good explanation

[Gustywind]

All my friends in the EC, please read it carefully.


Key Messages:

1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the intensity
forecast is greater than normal. Although Isaac is expected to
begin weakening when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still
likely to be at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the
islands.

2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor
Isaac during the next few days. Watches will likely be required for
portions of the Lesser Antilles tomorrow.

[Gustywind]

Barbara here is the latest infos related to Hurricane Isaac for the Northern Leewards, french version. I let it for you, read it carefully.
For those who are interrested i let the weather forecast for Guadeloupe ( french version).
Gustywind

http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf

[cycloneye]

FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42
A. 12/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA2 0109A ISAAC
C. 12/0930Z
D. 15.1N 53.9W
E. 12/1100Z TO 12/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON HURRICANE ISAAC.

[HurricaneEric]

Some good news for the islands is that this doesn’t look like it’s getting its act together... Of course, those in its path obviously want to be prepared just in case.




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[AubreyStorm]

Nothing except that its estimated latitude has dropped 3/10th of a degree! May just be a wobble, but we definitely need to keep an eye on this.

Hi abajan!
Any link or floater?
Tropical Tidbits not working

Try this page: https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/

Thanks you abajan! Nice!

[Chris90]

Nothing except that its estimated latitude has dropped 3/10th of a degree! May just be a wobble, but we definitely need to keep an eye on this.

Hi abajan!
Any link or floater?
Tropical Tidbits not working

Try this page: https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/

Thanks you abajan! Nice!

Little tip for anyone trying to use Tropical Tidbits:
Pause the floater loop when you first click on it. Wait for the first frame to load, then when it has, use the bar to skip ahead a few frames. Let that frame load, then skip ahead a few frames again, and let that one load. Do this until the end of the loop. Once you have done this, hit play and the loop should play much better. I've been doing this throughout the day, just pausing it and loading individual frames at the beginning, 1/4, 1/2, 3/4, and end of the loop before putting it in motion. Loads the whole loop much faster, for me anyway.

[NDG]

Is looking like is starting to get its act together tonight. Looking better than this morning with better outflow setting up.