CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS rolling. So far almost the same as the 06z run.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Quite the forecasting challenge with Hurricane Lane with respect to Hawaii over the next 5-days concerning the timing of the eventual northward turn ... more aircraft data will be helpful for the 00z models later this evening.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1031562091042357259

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS hours 0-48:

On track to miss the big island again:

[Kingarabian]

Now looks poised to graze the Big Island, a hair east compared to the 06z GFS:

12z GFS hours 48-72:

[Kingarabian]

Looks like that brief WSW dip the GFS has been showing has begun:

[Kingarabian]

Starts weakening around hour 96 on the 12z GFS:

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS looks like a Cat. 1landfall, hour 102:

[Siker]

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/TcvGdzf.png[/mg]

Another east shift...

[Siker]

GFS and UKMET both show that odd SW hook. Difference is that the GFS is further east so it makes landfall before doing so.

[cycloneye]

The trend is more and more for Lane to have a bigger impact on the state than we anticipated when it became a TC. We thought it was going to slide like Hector did but looks like this time if not a direct hit a close call with the various impacts locally.

[ncapps]

When do airlines typically start cancelling flights? Set to fly in Friday and would like to be prepared for that.

[1900hurricane]

It's been a while since I've seen SATCON so far off.

[Alyono]

it's becoming clear that my call of a safe miss is in danger now. The trough looks to be legit.

Have to hope this does not start accelerating once it turns. That is the difference between an Iniki and a Dot, if this does make a landfall

[BYG Jacob]

Lane looks like a bit of a mess on satellite to be fair. Thank god for recon.

[Ntxw]

Lane looks like a bit of a mess on satellite to be fair. Thank god for recon.

Not entirely. While the eye is not warm, convection is very cold and organized. There is some shear in the north as with the cloud pattern but he's not all that much of a mess. It is a very serious threat for Hawaii.

[Camerooski]

Lane looks like a bit of a mess on satellite to be fair. Thank god for recon.

Wouldn't say that, it actually has been strengthening for a good 6 hours today. The atmosphere is more humid and the shear has lessened a bit, and the outflow is much better on top of that. Wouldn't be surprised if Lane became a temporary borderline or cat 5 before weakening on approach to Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest frame suggests T6.0.

[ncapps]

FV-3 GFS is a miss for Hawaii.

[BYG Jacob]

Lane looks like a bit of a mess on satellite to be fair. Thank god for recon.

Not entirely. While the eye is not warm, convection is very cold and organized. There is some shear in the north as with the cloud pattern but he's not all that much of a mess. It is a very serious threat for Hawaii.

Damn, didn't realize how busy he had been reorganizing.