ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

With these models runs from overnight, i fear that the media hype train will start up in earnest today. Particularly since the GFS shows DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City being affected. Misinformation central.

[hurricaneCW]

I hope people finally realize that she is probably not going to harmlessly curve OTS and that you cannot use climo this time around.

Shear also appears to be lessening a bit this morning.

[GCANE]

Am I crazy, or does this suddenly look not-so-bad on Visible?

Definitely rocking a new CDO, although I think it might be displaced a bit from the LLC.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

New cirrus from the core convection is spewing to the west.
Still some strong ULL winds.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

[northjaxpro]

I hope people finally realize that she is probably not going to harmlessly curve OTS and that you cannot use climo this time around.

Shear also appears to be lessening a bit this morning.

Amen! It unfortunately is becoming more and more apparent that the odds of Florence inpacting the U.S.East Coast are increasing very appreciably with each day for sure.

[Blown Away]

Red Circle: Andrew's highest latitude on approach to SFL.
Yellow Circle: Ike's highest latitude on approach to SFL.

Many Carolina strikes from Flo's latitude, but wanted to show that Flo could move into range with further S adjustments where significant storms have impacted SFL/GOM.

[xironman]

Here is a fun one, the stronger storm appears to have more southern steering winds

TC MSLP/Vmax: 990-999mb/45-60kts



TC MSLP/Vmax: 950-969mb/90-112kts

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like shear is abating, Florence is already starting to look better.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks like shear is abating, Florence is already starting to look better.

Lotta dry air on that west side though...models show it staying there for the next 24-36 hours.

[dspguy]

With these models runs from overnight, i fear that the media hype train will start up in earnest today. Particularly since the GFS shows DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City being affected. Misinformation central.

Boy were you right. My family in the north east has been calling/emailing me asking if I knew a storm might be coming near me (SE US). I'm guessing the Today Show or Good Morning America or something had a 60 seconds spot about the hurricane and that drew their attention.

[AJC3]

Just wanted to throw a quick reminder into both the Florence threads...

If you quote another post with an embedded image or tweet, please delete the tags so the actual image or tweet doesn't show up in your reply. While we understand the need for context here, we really like (read: NEED) to have our members do this when threads become active (a/k/a "Storm Mode") in order to cut down on the same image or tweet showing up 3 to 5 (often more) times on a page, which makes it more cumbersome/time consuming to scroll through the threads. Thanks, and post away!

[Spacecoast]

[GCANE]

Really quick drop in shear last couple hours.
Radial cirrus fingers on the whole west side now.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

[chris_fit]

Might be an illusion but seeing some Southerly component in the motion of FL last 2 frames or so....

[plasticup]

Might be an illusion but seeing some Southerly component in the motion of FL last 2 frames or so....

[i mg]https://imgur.com/661L0kn.gif[/img]

So hard to see where the center of circulation is with that convective burst. But the NHC forecast does call for a slight southerly component

[TheStormExpert]

3 days until recon.

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1038051647392497664

[Spacecoast]

Levi Cowan tweeted:
"Very quietly, something is happening @ 30N, 68W, Keep an eye on this little surface trough with deep convection & light upper flow ahead of Florence."

What does he mean by that?

[Shell Mound]

Might be an illusion but seeing some Southerly component in the motion of FL last 2 frames or so....

https://imgur.com/661L0kn.gif

I'm actually seeing the start of a south-of-due-W component, based on low-level clouds to the S of the centre. This fits with the low-to-mid-level streamline analysis. As mentioned, since vertical wind shear is slowly but clearly lessening (note outflow expansion), this means a stronger Florence will track S of due W for a prolonged period of time. The EPS members that take Florence into FL are also the models that show the most pronounced south-of-due-W movement over the next few days. Given current trends, those models may yet shift farther S and bring South and Central FL into play, given the strength and orientation of ridging.

[Shell Mound]

Levi Cowan tweeted:
"Very quietly, something is happening @ 30N, 68W, Keep an eye on this little surface trough with deep convection & light upper flow ahead of Florence."

What does he mean by that?

That surface trough induces more shortwave ridging between it and Florence, inducing Florence to assume a more S-of-due-W component than most models indicated.

[jlauderdal]

Levi Cowan tweeted:
"Very quietly, something is happening @ 30N, 68W, Keep an eye on this little surface trough with deep convection & light upper flow ahead of Florence."

What does he mean by that?

That surface trough induces more shortwave ridging between it and Florence, inducing Florence to assume a more S-of-due-W component than most models indicated.

ensembles may have picked up on this too, they have been trending wsw

[HurricaneEric]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1038052842030788608




Which is why I’d absolutely avoid referring to climatology and precedent with Flo. Most models are already going against climatology with these trends. It’s all about Flo’s intensity and steering pattern which, in about 3 days time, can put Flo in a position that aligns with hurricanes that have struck the US East coast before.