WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

I don’t think it has intensified. In fact, SATCON estimates have lowered from 150 knots to 145 knots over the past few hours. The increase in intensity is likely attributed to JTWC’s over-reliance on subjective Dvorak estimates, not to mention that their own T7.5 is likely too high in the place. Intensity estimates from JMA seem more reasonable to me, which show the intensity plateauing since 18Z yesterday, and are more consistent with SATCON.

[mrbagyo]

Fantastic Dual channel outflow.

[1900hurricane]

At a glance, it's hard to tell that it's actually pretty far along with eyewall replacement.

[Cunxi Huang]

SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 200NM DIAMETER CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A 27NM ROUND EYE AND
BANDING FEATURE. A 121709Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES AN ONGOING
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AND
DISTINCT MOAT FEATURE EVIDENT. DESPITE THE ERC AND SLIGHT EROSION OF
THE INNER EYEWALL OVER THE NNE QUADRANT, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY TO 155 KNOTS, BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 7.5 (155
KNOTS) AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 156 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST, AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SST (29-30C) AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE VERY FAVORABLE. STY 26W IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.

SATCON again...

[Highteeld]

Looks like you can see the "moat" between the two eyewalls.

[1900hurricane]

Weird to see JTWC suddenly reference SATCON after ignoring it for the past 24 hours or so.

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/WXappraiser/status/1039988231700275200




Edit: Dot peaked at 120 knots / 895 hpa (track is more southerly). Idk what's the ohc/ sst during typhoon Dot's time

[euro6208]

Wow. 155 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING
NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 200NM DIAMETER CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A 27NM ROUND EYE AND
BANDING FEATURE. A 121709Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES AN ONGOING
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AND
DISTINCT MOAT FEATURE EVIDENT. DESPITE THE ERC AND SLIGHT EROSION OF
THE INNER EYEWALL OVER THE NNE QUADRANT, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY TO 155 KNOTS, BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 7.5 (155
KNOTS) AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 156 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST, AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SST (29-30C) AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE VERY FAVORABLE. STY 26W IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON BY TAU 48.
STY 26W WILL MAINTAIN STY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, STY 26W WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF
LUZON, RE-EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) NEAR TAU 60 NEAR
110 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY MANGKHUT WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SCS JUST SOUTH OF HONG KONG MAKING
LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA NEAR TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BY
TAU 96 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AS IT
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1039992819606331393

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1039981970799898624

[euro6208]

Yup finally mentions SATCON. They been completely behind and had they followed it, peak of over 160 knots.

[euro6208]

Incredible. Josh now chasing Mangkhut? I remember he ask his followers which one should he track and he chose Florence.

[1900hurricane]

From yesterday:

 https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/1039830311025209344

[mrbagyo]

TY 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 21:40 UTC, 12 September 2018
<Analysis at 21 UTC, 12 September>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N14°25' (14.4°)
E131°55' (131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 560 km (300 NM)
SW 440 km (240 NM)

[1900hurricane]

Incredible. Josh now chasing Mangkhut? I remember he ask his followers which one should he track and he chose Florence.

Can't really blame Josh; when he decided originally, it looks most likely that Mangkhut would sail between Taiwan and Luzon, making Florence a much more accessible target. Now that he's changed targets, he's on a Haima '16 tight timetable though.

[mrbagyo]

Incredible. Josh now chasing Mangkhut? I remember he ask his followers which one should he track and he chose Florence.

Can't really blame Josh; when he decided originally, it looks most likely that Mangkhut would sail between Taiwan and Luzon, making Florence a much more accessible target. Now that he's changed targets, he's on a Haima '16 tight timetable though.

He'll likely do a land travel again (12 hrs - which would involve some zigzag in Dalton Pass in N. viscaya plus the traffic jam in Manila that could get worse due to monsoon rains). Cancellation of Manila-Tuguegarao flights within the next 24 hours is very likely (heck, local airlines are notorious for cancelling flights to Tugueg even in permissible weather).
This would be tougher than Haima.

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

I don’t know what’s more incredible. That or the lack of recon. These monsters happen at least once a year most years.

[1900hurricane]

Getting signs that the inner eyewall is beginning to give it up on visible imagery.

[Cunxi Huang]

HWRF is having some serious technical issues right now. EMC needs to fix the problem asap.