ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[GeneratorPower]

WNW at 102

[Hurricaneman]

WNW at 102

The 0zGFS shows this at 102hrs well south of the 18zGFS at 108

[Aric Dunn]

126 hrs more ridging...faster stronger and farther west and again slightly stronger ridging.

[TheStormExpert]

Go figure the 00z GFS would trend ever so slightly stronger with the ridging. We’ve seen this numerous times over the past several years. Notable examples that come to mind are Irma, and Matthew (2016).

[PTrackerLA]

Look at that ridge at 144hrs

[cjrciadt]

930 ish pressure too

[Hurricaneman]

Look at that ridge at 144hrs

Also the west turn of doom has begun

[TheStormExpert]

On Bermuda’s doorstep in 6 days. Btw, it surprises me that somehow a single island so small in the middle of the Atlantic is more likely to see more tropical cyclone impacts than Hawaiian Island chain.

[Hurricaneman]

On Bermuda’s doorstep in 6 days. Btw, it surprises me that somehow a single island so small in the middle of the Atlantic is more likely to see more tropical cyclone impacts than Hawaiian Island chain.

Looks like it avoids Bermuda but what about areas farther west

[Aric Dunn]

much farther wnw this run..

[TheStormExpert]

I’m on my phone so I can’t post a trend GIF, but what a significant difference in 500mb pattern and speed of Florence in six days!

[Aric Dunn]

162 hours. strong ridging building to its NE.. its going to turn..

[TheStormExpert]

On Bermuda’s doorstep in 6 days. Btw, it surprises me that somehow a single island so small in the middle of the Atlantic is more likely to see more tropical cyclone impacts than Hawaiian Island chain.

Looks like it avoids Bermuda but what about areas farther west

Likely North Carolina bound this run.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like it’s trying to go through the ridge again, we’ll have to see a few more frames before I can say for sure

[WeatherEmperor]

The new 0z UKMET doubles down on being southern outlier. Goes almost due west




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[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it’s trying to go through the ridge again, we’ll have to see a few more frames before I can say for sure

strong ridging to the NE is building its steered by that. unless it build north of it .. it will either plow into mid atlantic or out to sea.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like it’s trying to go through the ridge again, we’ll have to see a few more frames before I can say for sure

That ridge is strengthening and yet the GFS still insists on a direct WNW-NW heading.

[GeneratorPower]

00z GFS also has Helene turning into a Caribbean Cruiser?

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like it’s trying to go through the ridge again, we’ll have to see a few more frames before I can say for sure

That ridge is strengthening and yet the GFS still insists on a direct WNW-NW heading.

It just makes the rest of the run after day 6 is trash as it goes against science

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it’s trying to go through the ridge again, we’ll have to see a few more frames before I can say for sure

That ridge is strengthening and yet the GFS still insists on a direct WNW-NW heading.

It just makes the rest of the run after day 6 is trash as it goes against science

noo it is becasue of the placement of the ridge. it is not north of it.. the center of the ridge is NE of florence thus even though there is high pressure north of it... the stronger ridge NE of it wins over.