ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

I've been pretty steadfast on guessing Florence S.C. as point of landfall but am close to changing that thought to Jacksonville/Savannah instead.

im sticking with florence sc just because you know its florence ...we have seen the models underestimate these ridges too many times and even when recon goes in we see the models underestimate them, this system is very dangerous for the united states, fema better get ready

[Bocadude85]

While looking at the latest 12Z UKMET model output, I noticed something interesting...if Florence were to follow the UKMET track perfectly she would end up at the same forecast point as hurricane Andrew when he made his westward turn, I am well aware the two are very dissimilar in track and steering currents but I thought it was interesting and decided to share.

This is the 12Z UKMET output

OPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 51.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2018 0 24.9N 51.4W 993 64
0000UTC 08.09.2018 12 24.6N 52.1W 995 60
1200UTC 08.09.2018 24 24.5N 53.4W 992 61
0000UTC 09.09.2018 36 24.4N 54.4W 991 53
1200UTC 09.09.2018 48 24.4N 55.6W 988 55
0000UTC 10.09.2018 60 24.6N 57.2W 984 55
1200UTC 10.09.2018 72 24.8N 59.6W 982 55
0000UTC 11.09.2018 84 24.7N 62.3W 973 66
1200UTC 11.09.2018 96 25.1N 65.2W 971 66
0000UTC 12.09.2018 108 25.8N 68.3W 971 75
1200UTC 12.09.2018 120 27.2N 71.5W 959 79
0000UTC 13.09.2018 132 28.6N 74.3W 950 84
1200UTC 13.09.2018 144 30.4N 76.8W 944 89

This is hurricane Andrews track points

(UTC) Position Pressure
(mb) Wind Speed
(kt) Stage
Lat. (°N) Lon. (°W)
16/1800 10.8 35.5 1010 25 Tropical Depression
17/0000 11.2 37.4 1009 30 " "
0600 11.7 39.6 1008 30 " "
1200 12.3 42.0 1006 35 Tropical Storm
1800 13.1 44.2 1003 35 " "
18/0000 13.6 46.2 1002 40 " "
0600 14.1 48.0 1001 45 " "
1200 14.6 49.9 1000 45 " "
1800 15.4 51.8 1000 45 " "
19/0000 16.3 53.5 1001 45 " "
0600 17.2 55.3 1002 45 " "
1200 18.0 56.9 1005 45 " "
1800 18.8 58.3 1007 45 " "
20/0000 19.8 59.3 1011 40 " "
0600 20.7 60.0 1013 40 " "
1200 21.7 60.7 1015 40 " "
1800 22.5 61.5 1014 40 " "
21/0000 23.2 62.4 1014 45 " "
0600 23.9 63.3 1010 45 " "
1200 24.4 64.2 1007 50 " "
1800 24.8 64.9 1004 50 " "
22/0000 25.3 65.9 1000 55 " "
0600 25.6 67.0 994 60 " "
1200 25.8 68.3 981 70 Hurricane

[AtlanticWind]

...climatology...

I'm super interested in this. As far as I can tell, most 'climatological' tropical storm predictions seem useless in a world with changing climate. Water temperatures are different. Patterns are different. Why would the climate be a good indicator of where a current storm is going? I don't follow the logic here at all. It is using a static variable to guess a moving target. It's not going to work.

And where do these people get off suggesting that climate-based historical tracks of hurricanes are an indicator *at all* of where a current storm is going? Is there evidence to support this? It seems to me that it is a lot more likely that a storm in a current position has *never* closely resembled the starting conditions of any storm in history. I would suggest that the people using climatology tracks are being dense on-purpose, as I think there is no evidence whatsoever to support their points.

Are there any studies or data on the effectiveness of climatological data when looking at storm paths today? Is the effectiveness decreasing or was it never effective to begin with?

I agree, The model forecasts are not always correct but they are the best info we have as to where a storm
will end up.

[TheDreamTraveler]

These rainfall totals are actually scary. I live in central Pennsylvania which has been hammered by rains all year long. Especially within the last 90 days we've been blasted by tons of rain. The flooding has been bad all year. And we're about to get hit by the remnants of tropical storm gordon from the west and possibly Florence from either our east or our south. Now here's the weird thing about this. This happened in 2011. Hurricane Irene came up the east coast and dumped tons of rain in the same areas and then tropical storm lee came from the gulf and interacted with a system and dumped over 15 inches of rain over the same areas that already had one of it's wettest years on record. And so far 2018 is one of the wettest years ever for central Pennsylvania, Maryland and parts of Virginia. It's like deja vu. And the worst part is it doesn't even matter if Florence landfalls into Georgia or South Carolina if it takes a more western path because the remnants of rain are still going to come up here with gordons remnants :\

[GCANE]

...climatology...

I'm super interested in this. As far as I can tell, most 'climatological' tropical storm predictions seem useless in a world with changing climate. Water temperatures are different. Patterns are different. Why would the climate be a good indicator of where a current storm is going? I don't follow the logic here at all. It is using a static variable to guess a moving target. It's not going to work.

And where do these people get off suggesting that climate-based historical tracks of hurricanes are an indicator *at all* of where a current storm is going? Is there evidence to support this? It seems to me that it is a lot more likely that a storm in a current position has *never* closely resembled the starting conditions of any storm in history. I would suggest that the people using climatology tracks are being dense on-purpose, as I think there is no evidence whatsoever to support their points.

Are there any studies or data on the effectiveness of climatological data when looking at storm paths today? Is the effectiveness decreasing or was it never effective to begin with?

Just my humble opinion, but climo is more relevant for genesis location than actual tracking.

[tolakram]

Please be careful about calling people dense or stupid, this is NOT THE PLACE to questions peoples motives. Stick to Florence and leave the rest of it out of here.

[chaser1]

I've been pretty steadfast on guessing Florence S.C. as point of landfall but am close to changing that thought to Jacksonville/Savannah instead.

im sticking with florence sc just because you know its florence ...we have seen the models underestimate these ridges too many times and even when recon goes in we see the models underestimate them, this system is very dangerous for the united states, fema better get ready

Yeah, i'm afraid this might turn out to be this season's "high-light storm"

[jlauderdal]

I've been pretty steadfast on guessing Florence S.C. as point of landfall but am close to changing that thought to Jacksonville/Savannah instead.

im sticking with florence sc just because you know its florence ...we have seen the models underestimate these ridges too many times and even when recon goes in we see the models underestimate them, this system is very dangerous for the united states, fema better get ready

Yeah, i'm afraid this might turn out to be this season's "high-light storm"

maybe but we have 7 weeks to go at least in florida

[Aric Dunn]

Still diving south of west. pretty much wsw at a decent clip. if it gets before 24.5m it will be lower than all the models.

[Blown Away]

Still diving south of west. pretty much wsw at a decent clip. if it gets before 24.5m it will be lower than all the models.

Can u show a graphic locating that LLC?

[meriland29]

Is there anything likely in Florences future that will possibly destabilise its intensity once closer to the states? I notice a insane ridge that looks to solidly steer her west but also that her intensity should reach major status a whole 2 days before she nears the states..

[HurricaneEric]

I keep seeing posts that Flo is approaching 24N but I keep seeing credible sources still plotting the LLC at 25N... is there any updated sources that can officially say the LLC has moved south of 25N???

[tolakram]

I keep seeing posts that Flo is approaching 24N but I keep seeing credible sources still plotting the LLC at 25N... is there any updated sources that can officially say the LLC has moved south of 25N???

The only source that counts is the NHC.

25.0°N 51.8°W

[Hammy]

I keep seeing posts that Flo is approaching 24N but I keep seeing credible sources still plotting the LLC at 25N... is there any updated sources that can officially say the LLC has moved south of 25N???

Best Track usually updates about an hour or so after the TWD/TWO, so in about 90 mins it'll be out.

[Aric Dunn]

Still diving south of west. pretty much wsw at a decent clip. if it gets before 24.5m it will be lower than all the models.

Can u show a graphic locating that LLC?

IT is starting to get covered up again by the convection to the north of it. was more visible a couple frames ago.

[tolakram]

Is there anything likely in Florences future that will possibly destabilise its intensity once closer to the states? I notice a insane ridge that looks to solidly steer her west but also that her intensity should reach major status a whole 2 days before she nears the states..

94L may, but it also may be responsible for venting the storm and making it stronger.

[Aric Dunn]

I keep seeing posts that Flo is approaching 24N but I keep seeing credible sources still plotting the LLC at 25N... is there any updated sources that can officially say the LLC has moved south of 25N???

The only source that counts is the NHC.

25.0°N 51.8°W

we wont see an offical location until 5pm
some fresh microwaves images will help though

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1038119202543030273

[tolakram]

I keep seeing posts that Flo is approaching 24N but I keep seeing credible sources still plotting the LLC at 25N... is there any updated sources that can officially say the LLC has moved south of 25N???

The only source that counts is the NHC.

25.0°N 51.8°W

we wont see an offical location until 5pm
some fresh microwaves images will help though

You (Eric) can monitor best track here: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/ bal062018 is the file for Florence.

[artist]

I keep seeing posts that Flo is approaching 24N but I keep seeing credible sources still plotting the LLC at 25N... is there any updated sources that can officially say the LLC has moved south of 25N???

The only source that counts is the NHC.

25.0°N 51.8°W

we wont see an offical location until 5pm
some fresh microwaves images will help though

Nrl is showing 24.4

06L.FLORENCE, VIS, 06 SEP 2018 1800Z
UTC (Z)
Tutorials:
Overview
COMET
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Reduced size ( 23 K), click i

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... m&PROD=vis