ATL: MICHAEL - Models
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
Gfs and Euro are on the same page now, the Gfs is just a tad bit faster.
Models showing the more tempered intensity upon LF so it should indeed weaken slightly before it makes landfall. I have my doubts it'll be a major, I'd go with 100mph Cat 2.
Models showing the more tempered intensity upon LF so it should indeed weaken slightly before it makes landfall. I have my doubts it'll be a major, I'd go with 100mph Cat 2.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
GFS/FV3/Euro /CMC are all saying around Destin
UK/Icon/HWRF/HMON are all saying around PCB
All are in the late afternoon or evening on Wednesday.
UK/Icon/HWRF/HMON are all saying around PCB
All are in the late afternoon or evening on Wednesday.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
BobHarlem wrote:GFS/FV3/Euro /CMC are all saying around Destin
UK/Icon/HWRF/HMON are all saying around PCB
All are in the late afternoon or evening on Wednesday.
Tonight will be interesting!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
I don't know about this. Just take a look at the distinctly greater concentration of stronger members (in red). Those happen to be largely weighted to the right of the center line average. Just makes me question the Operational EURO (and overall model consensus) that a major hurricane will landfall further west with less of a pronounced eastward shift to occur. I'll be very surprised if this storm acquires Cat 3 intensity yet continues to maintain a much more pole-ward track to landfall. If intensity reaches or exceeds that level and thus becomes that much deeper of a storm, then I'd guess at least "some" added upper steering influence from say 300 mb to 500mb would impact a more "east of north" track to commence by tomm. eve (10/10 - 0Z). Should that occur, then an earlier bend to the N.E. would result in landfall close or east of Apalach and perhaps close to St. Marks (or even east of there?)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
chaser1 wrote:
I don't know about this. Just take a look at the distinctly greater concentration of stronger members (in red). Those happen to be largely weighted to the right of the center line average. Just makes me question the Operational EURO (and overall model consensus) that a major hurricane will landfall further west with less of a pronounced eastward shift to occur. I'll be very surprised if this storm acquires Cat 3 intensity yet continues to maintain a much more pole-ward track to landfall. If intensity reaches or exceeds that level and thus becomes that much deeper of a storm, then I'd guess at least "some" added upper steering influence from say 300 mb to 500mb would impact a more "east of north" track to commence by tomm. eve (10/10 - 0Z). Should that occur, then an earlier bend to the N.E. would result in landfall close or east of Apalach and perhaps close to St. Marks (or even east of there?)
So the issue is that the stronger storm will also be influenced westward and poleward around the stengthening ridge before landfall. The timing of the front is slower in the latest Euro and GFS runs.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm
- FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
4PM NHC track agrees with the 12z GFS.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
FLpanhandle91 wrote:chaser1 wrote:
I don't know about this. Just take a look at the distinctly greater concentration of stronger members (in red). Those happen to be largely weighted to the right of the center line average. Just makes me question the Operational EURO (and overall model consensus) that a major hurricane will landfall further west with less of a pronounced eastward shift to occur. I'll be very surprised if this storm acquires Cat 3 intensity yet continues to maintain a much more pole-ward track to landfall. If intensity reaches or exceeds that level and thus becomes that much deeper of a storm, then I'd guess at least "some" added upper steering influence from say 300 mb to 500mb would impact a more "east of north" track to commence by tomm. eve (10/10 - 0Z). Should that occur, then an earlier bend to the N.E. would result in landfall close or east of Apalach and perhaps close to St. Marks (or even east of there?)
So the issue is that the stronger storm will also be influenced westward and poleward around the stengthening ridge before landfall. The timing of the front is slower in the latest Euro and GFS runs.
While your statement is generally correct, it does not at all address my point. I was addressing an EPS ensemble run showing most of it's stronger EURO members actually turning sooner and more to the Northeast then most other (weaker) members. There's a link above, if you'd like to take a look (I simply did not re-post the same large graph within the forum since it had just been recently presented)
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
chaser1 wrote:FLpanhandle91 wrote:chaser1 wrote:
I don't know about this. Just take a look at the distinctly greater concentration of stronger members (in red). Those happen to be largely weighted to the right of the center line average. Just makes me question the Operational EURO (and overall model consensus) that a major hurricane will landfall further west with less of a pronounced eastward shift to occur. I'll be very surprised if this storm acquires Cat 3 intensity yet continues to maintain a much more pole-ward track to landfall. If intensity reaches or exceeds that level and thus becomes that much deeper of a storm, then I'd guess at least "some" added upper steering influence from say 300 mb to 500mb would impact a more "east of north" track to commence by tomm. eve (10/10 - 0Z). Should that occur, then an earlier bend to the N.E. would result in landfall close or east of Apalach and perhaps close to St. Marks (or even east of there?)
So the issue is that the stronger storm will also be influenced westward and poleward around the stengthening ridge before landfall. The timing of the front is slower in the latest Euro and GFS runs.
While your statement is generally correct, it does not at all address my point. I was addressing an EPS ensemble run showing most of it's stronger EURO members actually turning sooner and more to the Northeast then most other (weaker) members. There's a link above, if you'd like to take a look (I simply did not re-post the same large graph within the forum since it had just been recently presented)
Oh! I apoligize. Did not know you were referring to EPS.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
SunnyThoughts wrote:18z gfs running
Almost identical to the last run
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
GFS is coming in a couple of hours slower than previous run on landfall timing.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
NDG wrote:GFS is coming in a couple of hours slower than previous run on landfall timing.
Yes, starts the turn a few hours later to the East but same result for landfall for the most part.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
Zoomed in look at 18z GFS forecast landfall, around 5 PM CDT, just west of Panama City Beach, over Laguna Beach & Sunny Side.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
Not sure if this had been already mentioned here during the last few hours, but this from this afternoon's Cyclone Discussion:
"..... The NOAA G-IV aircraft is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission
over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be
assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models runs"
"..... The NOAA G-IV aircraft is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission
over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be
assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models runs"
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
NDG wrote:Zoomed in look at 18z GFS forecast landfall, around 5 PM CDT, just west of Panama City Beach, over Laguna Beach & Sunny Side.
https://i.imgur.com/s1ehulA.png
Is the 18Z GFS intensity higher or lower than previous runs?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
Ken711 wrote:NDG wrote:Zoomed in look at 18z GFS forecast landfall, around 5 PM CDT, just west of Panama City Beach, over Laguna Beach & Sunny Side.
https://i.imgur.com/s1ehulA.png
Is the 18Z GFS intensity higher or lower than previous runs?
About the same, maybe a little higher than the previous run.
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