WPAC: SOULIK - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Eye is clearing out

[Twisted-core]

TYPHOON SOULIK ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 140.3E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.08.2018 24.5N 140.3E STRONG
12UTC 18.08.2018 24.7N 139.9E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2018 24.7N 139.2E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2018 25.3N 138.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2018 26.1N 136.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2018 27.3N 133.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2018 28.7N 131.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2018 30.5N 129.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.08.2018 32.5N 128.0E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2018 35.6N 127.9E INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 23.08.2018 39.8N 130.3E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 23.08.2018 44.6N 135.9E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 24.08.2018 48.1N 143.7E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180403

UKMET guidance suggests intense major, anywhere between the 3-5 range.

[NotoSans]

Looks like a T5.0 to me now but microwave suggested that the western eyewall is still open. Current structure probably does not allow for some real rapid intensification.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1030684975270703104




Probably a 2 punch deal if Pre-Cimaron follows Soulik...

[mrbagyo]

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/8vVgWWI



00z Ukmet track. Into SKorea
https://imgur.com/wMuIXqU
Full image



https://imgur.com/AanOnMo

[mrbagyo]

Very slow moving

METAR: RJAW 180700Z 16036G56KT 1500 R07/1400V1800N SHRA BR FEW005 BKN008 BKN010 FEW010CB 26/25 Q0988 RMK 2ST005 5ST008 7CU010 2CB010 A2920 RP1800 CB OHD MOV N

Pressure continues to drop in Iwo

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM WEST OF IWO TO,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
APPROXIMATELY 20 NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BY
AVERAGING RJTD AND PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 AND T5.5
(90-102 KTS), RESPECTIVELY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS), AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TY 22W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST HAS BEEN WEAKENED
BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, THE STR WILL
BUILD AND TY 22W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KYUSHU. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND, BY TAU 24, INTENSIFICATION WILL STOP
AT A PEAK OF 105 KTS. AFTER TAU 48, TY 22W WILL START TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS
188 NM AT TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE SPREAD FALLS TO 85 NM IF THE
SOUTHERNMOST (NAVGEM AND ECMWF) AND NORTHERNMOST (COAMPS-TC/GFS)
MEMBERS ARE ELIMINATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BUT THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO MORE CLOSELY ALIGN WITH THE PEAK IN THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE THIS WARNING. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, BASED ON THE ECMWF BEING ONE OF THE OUTLIERS, CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AROUND TAU 96, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE
STR AND ALLOW TY 22W TO RECURVE. THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SPREAD STARTS TO INCREASE AS THE DIFFERENT MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK SPEED OF THE CYCLONE AS IT RECURVES. NAVGEM AND ECMWF
REMAIN SOUTHERN OUTLIERS THAT RECURVE LATER AND FURTHER WEST. THE
OTHER MEMBERS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE TIMING BUT VARY IN THE FORWARD
SPEED ONCE THE CYCLONE HAS RECURVED TO THE NORTHEAST. INCREASING VWS
AND LIMITED LAND INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TY 22W BEYOND
TAU 96. BY TAU 120, INCREASING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL CAUSE TY 22W TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK
DURING AND AFTER RECURVATURE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN14 PGTW 180852

A. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK)

B. 18/0830Z

C. 24.82N

D. 140.10E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT B TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET/PT 5.5. DBO DT. EYE DIAMETER 25NM.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1030774076346785793

[mrbagyo]

Western Eyewall is still open/weak

[euro6208]

Category 3...

22W SOULIK 180818 1200 24.8N 139.9E WPAC 100 946

[euro6208]

It better start moving soon.

[Yellow Evan]

18/0830 UTC 24.8N 140.2E T6.0/6.0 SOULIK -- West Pacific

[NotoSans]

Not a major right now IMO. Instantaneous DT down to 4.5 now. For this type of systems it’s better to adopt a three-hourly average DT instead of just looking at a single frame.
Dry air entrainment evident on both microwave and EIR.

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM WEST OF IWO TO,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
AN APPROXIMATELY 25 MILE EYE IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A 181111Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW AND
RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS) AND A 181644Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 108 KTS, SLIGHTLY UNDER THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T6.0
(115 KTS). OBSERVATIONS FROM IWO-TO, ABOUT 77NM TO THE EAST, REPORT
36 KTS AND 991 MB, IN LINE WITH WIND RADII REFLECTED IN A 181213Z
ASCAT PASS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS), AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TY 22W HAS
MEANDERED SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST, ITS SLOW MOTION DUE TO THE
STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST BEING WEAKENED BY
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR IS RE-BUILDING BECAUSE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT
HAD DISRUPTED THE STR IS MOVING EAST, OUT OF THE AREA. IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, TY 22W WILL ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD KYUSHU.
AS THE STR REBUILDS TO THE NORTH OF TY 22W, IT WILL CUT OFF THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LEADING TO THE END OF THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND AND A STEADY INTENSITY OF 105 KTS THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU
48, TY 22W WILL START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS
160 NM AT TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THROUGH TAU 72, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS MODERATE BASED ON THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
C. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96, A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW TY 22W TO RECURVE. AT THIS POINT, TRACK
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE
AND THE TRACK SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD, NOW RUNNING BETWEEN
KYUSHU AND AMAMI OSHIMA, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS,
WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWEST OF CONSENSUS. OUTFLOW WILL BE
TEMPORARILY ENHANCED AS 22W TAPS INTO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
TY 22W BEYOND TAU 96, AS TY 22W IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS KOREAN PENINSULA. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN PRIOR TO TAU 120 AS 22W INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE.//
NNNN

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1030946076977713153

[shah83]

18z GFZ Western Pacific run is impressively catastrophic.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/C3X0ZEi
Big eye likey caused by the subsidence in the core from the up-welling ?

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 182137

A. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK)

B. 18/2030Z

C. 25.10N

D. 139.21E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5. ADDED 1.0 FOR BF TO YIELD A DT OF 6.0. MET/PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/1811Z 25.00N 139.70E SSMI
18/1824Z 25.00N 139.65E SSMS


DARLOW