ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3352
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#601 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:53 am

NHC now predicting a peak of 60 knots, hurricane watches up.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

Ian2401
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 307
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:55 pm
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#602 Postby Ian2401 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:54 am

Why keep the winds at 45mph when there is a confirmed reading of sustained winds at 65mph? At least bump it up a little bit
1 likes   
B.S. Meteorology from Florida State '24 // Current M.S. Meteorology student at Florida State

Research Interests: Rapid Intensification, TC Climatology, TC Modeling

Consult the NHC for official information

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#603 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:55 am

Read at Advisories thread the 11 AM advisory that has the Hurricane Watch issued for portions of Gulf Coast.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119835&p=2698017#p2698017
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1047
Age: 25
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: United States
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#604 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:56 am

Recon appears to have determined that the center observed by radar may be the true center for Gordon. Estimated pressure is around 1010 mbar.

977 kB. Source: GR2Analyst screenshot
Image
Last edited by TheAustinMan on Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
ImageImageImage
Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.

User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#605 Postby Siker » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:56 am

Well they found some westerlies... pretty high pressure to be the center (at least on extrapolated pressure).
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11497
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#606 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:56 am

Could already be over water

Image
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#607 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:57 am

TheAustinMan wrote:Recon appears to have determined that the center observed by radar may be the true center for Gordon.


Gordon surprising me left and right this morning.
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#608 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:57 am

GCANE wrote:Could already be over water

Image

per radar it appears over water
1 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11497
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#609 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:59 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GORDON - Recon

#610 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:59 am

Who wants to post the Obs from this first mission?

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#611 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:00 am

RL3AO wrote:I'm starting to think you more bullish people could be onto something. I don't think we're going to see RI (although I suppose a 985 mb 60 to 65kt system would meet that criteria), but the eastern GOM looks fairly favorable. Maybe the next 24 hours will be more interesting than I'm giving Gordon credit for.

Image
its over achieved since yesterday afternoon and although it found some land today albeit the swamp it didnt stay for very long
1 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11497
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#612 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:00 am

A couple in-the-clear 36-knot SFMRs
0 likes   

User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#613 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:01 am

My question is this. Since we know the NWS in Key West recorded 65 mph winds sustained, why are they keeping it at 45 mph? Do they not trust the reading? Also, bonus question lol. If it is a 65 mph TS, why is the pressure so high?
0 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#614 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:01 am

High background surface pressures yield to a higher central pressure than you would expect. Stacey Stewart sees what we’ve been saying here. The shear that models keep referring to is not there or simply not affecting Gordon. Gordon has the structure for rapid intensification.
2 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#615 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:02 am

the 56 knot OB must have been way elevated. Good call by the NHC to keep intensity leveled. the anonmoter on the bouy this morning that measured 43 kts was over 40 meters elevated, also.
Last edited by Highteeld on Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#616 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:03 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote: Also, bonus question lol. If it is a 65 mph TS, why is the pressure so high?


Because thunderstorms and their downdrafts can cause 65 mph winds. It certainly isn't the pressure gradient.
5 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3384
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#617 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:04 am

RL3AO wrote:
TheAustinMan wrote:Recon appears to have determined that the center observed by radar may be the true center for Gordon.


Gordon surprising me left and right this morning.


Guess I should have bet you 8-)
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5464
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#618 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:05 am

wxman57 wrote:Looking at the satellite imagery, I'd expect an LLC inland over the western Everglades. However, surface obs certainly don't support any LLC up there. Wind in the western keys is light and variable. I don't think there is a well-defined LLC at this time. Just because it's called a TS now doesn't mean it will be stronger at landfall. Look at a satelllite loop of those high clouds streaming north to south across the Gulf in its path. That's shear.


I couldn't agree more. I'm kind of a purist with regard to Tropical Storm nomenclature. Having been up till the wee morning hours it was apparent on radar at least that this was getting a little better organized. After waking up to see the upgrade and then take an immediate look at IR and visible satellite and then radar, and still be hard-pressed to know where a LLC might be? Meanwhile all i'm seeing is east winds throughout the Miami area with a forecast that never begins to bend those winds more southward as "Gordon" pulls off to the northwest. I understand when for the purpose of tropical classifications all that may be available is satellite but in instances such as a highly populated region with access to METAR's, private land based weather stations, radar, AND satellite.... there's just no way I'd have classified this as a T.S. quite yet.... just no way. Either wait for the plane or upgrade at least 12 hours earlier for the potential of tropical storm conditions (in gusts).

(edit to the above) I'm just now catching up on some of the obs that occurred this a.m. over the Keys and certainly the sustained winds reported justify additional warnings. Still though, structurally I still would not have made the outright upgrade and certainly would have tailored warnings a bit differently (less aggressively) for Miami-Dade county. Just my own .02 cents.
Last edited by chaser1 on Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#619 Postby drezee » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:06 am

chaser1 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looking at the satellite imagery, I'd expect an LLC inland over the western Everglades. However, surface obs certainly don't support any LLC up there. Wind in the western keys is light and variable. I don't think there is a well-defined LLC at this time. Just because it's called a TS now doesn't mean it will be stronger at landfall. Look at a satelllite loop of those high clouds streaming north to south across the Gulf in its path. That's shear.


I couldn't agree more. I'm kind of a purist with regard to Tropical Storm nomenclature. Having been up till the wee morning hours it was apparent on radar at least that this was getting a little better organized. After waking up to see the upgrade and then take an immediate look at IR and visible satellite and then radar, and still be hard-pressed to know where a LLC might be? Meanwhile all i'm seeing is east winds throughout the Miami area with a forecast that never begins to bend those winds more southward as "Gordon" pulls off to the northwest. I understand when for the purpose of tropical classifications all that may be available is satellite but in instances such as a highly populated region with access to METAR's, private land based weather stations, radar, AND satellite.... there's just no way I'd have classified this as a T.S. quite yet.... just no way. Either wait for the plane or upgrade at least 12 hours earlier for the potential of tropical storm conditions (in gusts).


Recon just closed the low. Moot point
3 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#620 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:07 am

Latest saved loop.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests