WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Eric Webb]

It’s still beyond me why the CPHC is expecting Hector to significantly weaken the next 2-3 days

[Sciencerocks]

Question. Let say this hits Japan as a historically powerful Typhoon and they retired it. Would it be removed from the eastern pacific names list?

[Eric Webb]

Question. Let say this hits Japan as a historically powerful Typhoon and they retired it. Would it be removed from the eastern pacific names list?

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) can grant that request if Japan so desires

[Kingarabian]

It’s still beyond me why the CPHC is expecting Hector to significantly weaken the next 2-3 days

That's how it is sometimes with the CPHC. The problem with EPAC basin crossers, is that we have great and quality forecasts from the NHC and then as soon as the systems cross into the CPAC everything becomes confusing. Occasionally they have some eyebrow raising things as we saw in 2014/2015.

[NotoSans]

Question. Let say this hits Japan as a historically powerful Typhoon and they retired it. Would it be removed from the eastern pacific names list?

I don't think there's a mechanism for Japan to submit retirement requests for the EPAC. And the JMA never submit such requests in the WPAC as well.

[syryquil]

"Unfortunately, the Hurricane Hunter mission had to cut short due to
mechanical concerns, and there will not be additional data for the
afternoon. The next mission into Hector will be this evening." From the newest discussion.

[NotSparta]

It’s still beyond me why the CPHC is expecting Hector to significantly weaken the next 2-3 days

Probably due to the dry air that has evidently been weakening Hector the past few days

[Eric Webb]

The next plane is scheduled to make a center fix by 530z or a little after midnight tonight. The timing is on the border of whether I will decide to stay up for it or just get up early to check haha.

[Eric Webb]

It’s still beyond me why the CPHC is expecting Hector to significantly weaken the next 2-3 days

Probably due to the dry air that has evidently been weakening Hector the past few days

The dry air may have theoretically capped Hector but it’s only intensified further the past few days I don’t see their forecast for weakening to a cat 2 unless Hector experiences at least 15-20 KT of shear which seems unlikely. I expect the intensity errors from the CPHC will probably be comparable to the findings of the 2002 Kossin study on annulars which noted the NHC was biased 15-20 KT too low at day 5 w/ annular hurricanes.

[Kingarabian]

"Unfortunately, the Hurricane Hunter mission had to cut short due to
mechanical concerns, and there will not be additional data for the
afternoon. The next mission into Hector will be this evening." From the newest discussion.

Thinking it got rocked on the first center fix. 30kt on the dropsonde would indicate very rough conditions, would it not?

[Kingarabian]

It’s still beyond me why the CPHC is expecting Hector to significantly weaken the next 2-3 days

Probably due to the dry air that has evidently been weakening Hector the past few days

The dry air may have theoretically capped Hector but it’s only intensified further the past few days I don’t see their forecast for weakening to a cat 2 unless Hector experiences at least 15-20 KT of shear which seems unlikely. I expect the intensity errors from the CPHC will probably be comparable to the findings of the 2002 Kossin study on annulars which noted the NHC was biased 15-20 KT too low at day 5 w/ annular hurricanes.

Think he's being sarcastic

[Eric Webb]

Probably due to the dry air that has evidently been weakening Hector the past few days

The dry air may have theoretically capped Hector but it’s only intensified further the past few days I don’t see their forecast for weakening to a cat 2 unless Hector experiences at least 15-20 KT of shear which seems unlikely. I expect the intensity errors from the CPHC will probably be comparable to the findings of the 2002 Kossin study on annulars which noted the NHC was biased 15-20 KT too low at day 5 w/ annular hurricanes.

Think he's being sarcastic

Yeah it’s hard to read sarcasm when you’re not face-to-face with someone. Hopefully Hector can find a way to pass south of the 180E/20N benchmark down the road and tap into the 28.5-29C+ rocket fuel, of course if it encounters this significantly warmer water it’ll probably lose annular characteristics.

[NDG]

What is interesting is that Hector has been able to become such a strong Cat 4 hurricane tracking over SSTs only near 26.5-27C telling us that surface waters don't have to be that warm as long as there's perfect atmospheric conditions and the atmosphere is not too warm.

[Kingarabian]

What is interesting is that Hector has been able to become such a strong Cat 4 hurricane tracking over SSTs only near 26.5-27C telling us that surface waters don't have to be that warm as long as there's perfect atmospheric conditions and the atmosphere is not too warm.

Yup. I can see Hector in current annular phase being used in future papers and research.

[Dylan]

What is interesting is that Hector has been able to become such a strong Cat 4 hurricane tracking over SSTs only near 26.5-27C telling us that surface waters don't have to be that warm as long as there's perfect atmospheric conditions and the atmosphere is not too warm.

Yeah, but it’s not surprising at all that it’s gone annular, since the majority of hurricanes develop annular characteristics in strictly 25-28C waters. I don’t see any reason why Hector would see any significant fluctuations in intensity over the next several days.

I also suspect that models are underestimating the mid-level ridge to the north, since Hectors outflow will likely enhance it, similar to Irma last year. You can only write equations for so many things that a model can handle.

[NotSparta]

The graphic shows Hector as a Cat 5

[Kingarabian]

Steady WNW movement at the moment.


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 928.7mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +16.3C Cloud Region Temp : -69.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ntxw]

One good looking eye, very warm. Nothing but Ocean below.

[RL3AO]

The graphic shows Hector as a Cat 5

It's a bug in the software that shows a 135kt hurricane as a category 5 when it's still a cat 4.

[Cyclenall]

There’s still a lot of uncertainty regarding the long term future of Hector as it approaches the dateline. Some guidance has shifted in the direction of the storm going out to sea and dissipating sooner by day 12 or so but Hector may still be able to beat Ioke’s ACE record without getting stuck under the ridge east of Japan, if it takes that route not out of the realm of possibility Hector accrues triple digit ACE.

Seeing the latest Euro long range is like running downstairs on Christmas morning, jogging to the christmas tree, and out of the tree a giant fist punches you square in the face knocking you over. What an AWFUL solution! Pray to whatever deity that doesn't verify because that would be lame. What a waste heaven forbid. Another couple of runs of that effluence and my time watching the Pacific will be over for the remainder of August.