ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Frank2]

If you're having trouble with the NOAA page try this (click on the "I" first):

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

[CrazyC83]

I've seen enough. In agreement with the NHC and also based on satellite/model trends, I'm now expecting a TS to form in the GOM along with a TS threat to the US GOM coast early next week from the FL Panhandle westward. I now think there's even a 5% chance for a H hit. If a TS+ landfalls in AL or westward by 5/29, it would become the earliest TS to hit in that part of the US on record back to 1851!

I think reanalysis found an earlier storm to hit in 1957 (more than a month before Audrey in the same area)?

I'm not aware of this but that's interesting if true. I did find an earlier one than Audrey here though with a June 8th genesis:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Is this by any chance that one?

That might be what I was thinking of.

[Nimbus]

In the 240 nm range of the Key West radar, the western-most echos (closest to the disturbance) have a northward movement of ~ 10 mph...

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... X&loop=yes

I can still see the remnants of the old low level circulation further south closer to Belize without much convection. Appears to be a new circulation getting started just off the northern coast line of the Yucatan maybe 50 miles west of the channel. Easy to get lost looking at extremely local observations, winds in and around thunderstorms create all kinds of almost random inflow patterns.

[Aric Dunn]

Nam is about 100 miles west at 54 hours... could be an even earlier turn west..

[Aric Dunn]

18z NAM is significantly slower.. the trough over the mountain west is not as far east.. ridging is stronger initially..

[DestinHurricane]

Any chance we will get a TD by tomorrow night?

[Aric Dunn]

Ridging just pumped up from 72 to 84 hours. quite a bit more the 12z. 90l barely even makes into the north central gulf before turning wsw to sw ! if the ridging is this strong witht he test of the guidance for 18z and 00z.. watch out texas ..

[stormlover2013]

But Aric really?? U really think ridging will be that strong ?

[Aric Dunn]

But Aric really?? U really think ridging will be that strong ?

no reason it cant be.. if the west coast trough does not progress east fast enough then yes strong ridging will build in quickly and the trough will likely go up and over the ridge. which is what looks like would happen if NAM went passed 84 hours.

90L moving do west south of LA at the end of run

[stormlover2013]

Interesting

[Aric Dunn]

18Z ICON is running too. lets see if it makes it to Texas this time again.

[Nimbus]

Any chance we will get a TD by tomorrow night?

Usually these close to home systems get upgraded by recon, but a TD only needs a clear closed circulation. Sheared systems usually take longer to verify.

[Aric Dunn]

Models must have got some new data. the trough over the eastern Pacific is much more amplified and the ridging on the ICON over the mountain west intern is also stronger. this will be interesting.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

would love to see this go way west and maybe give us a chance to dry out a little here in Florida! It would be great to have a decent holiday weekend after all.

[lrak]

Possibly Memorial Day surf Aric?

[gatorcane]

Sure looks like a bit of an ESE tug going on but overall movement is erratic and looks stationary as shear hits it:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Shear tendency map does show shear is decreasing north of the Yucatan:

[Aric Dunn]

Possibly Memorial Day surf Aric?

Should be

[lrak]

Possibly Memorial Day surf Aric?

Should be

YAY thanks for the quick response. Time to call all the old bros!

[Aric Dunn]

lol of course.. so far. ICON way east of 12z.. does a much wide turn for some reason. maybe shear..
84 hours it is stalled south of Mississippi, though ridging is building strong so should not go north.. same timing as NAM just a larger turn.

[AdamFirst]

18z ICON has trended east. Same pattern as the 12z run - but the storm has a closer approach to Florida and meanders south of Pensacola instead of the Mississippi River Delta.