ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

[KWT]

Given the inner core isnow really getting going I expect the center will wobbles around somewhat thanks to the deep convection developing in the eyewall.

[MississippiWx]

A lot of models showed Michael performing a cyclonic loop as he moved through the Yucatan Channel. The large northward jump on the last pass shows this well. The center will probably take on a more westerly motion at some point before resuming the northward motion.

[Buck]

WOW

[GCANE]

ADT is picking up on the eye.
Raw T# 5.7

[GCANE]

The mushroom cirrus from those 3 major hot towers is obscuring the eye.
Classic major intensification.

[Mouton]

Are the models off or will Michael even it's track o over time and follow nhc track?
Edit-Need to know if my area Jax is going to experience enough impacts to warrant extra action?

60% probability of TS winds in Jax as of latest advisory. 10% hurricane force. Banding winds though should be severe at times IMO given the NE Quadrant (per the latest NHC path) Those effects would begin Weds afternoon.

Regardless, my shutters on AI go up tomorrow by night fall. Loose stuff out of yard. Got water supply this AM and filled my gas cans. I don't plan to evac as we did for Mathew and Irma Atlantic storms.

Frankly I think the path is too far left at this point and I don't trifle with major storms.

[xironman]

The exploding mesos to the NE are amazing.

[GCANE]

The SE feeder band is really kicking in.

[HurricaneBelle]

The NHC and the models have struggled some with trough interactions with northward-moving storms near the Cuban coast in the past, generally erring to the west. Obviously Charley was the poster boy for this in 2004, coming in further south and east, and the same thing happened last year with Irma. In both of those cases, forecast direct hits to the Tampa Bay area were averted with this westward error. Unfortunately, if westward error is present this time around, it's going to have the opposite impact on the Tampa Bay area.

[psyclone]

Per the 11 am advisory Cape San Blas=Cape Sand Blast. Very persistent track to that area reminds me of the tenacious forecast tracks taking Florence to Wilmington. Port St Joe blow incoming. FWIW Tampa's TS wind probs actually ticked down. I'll take it.

[jdjaguar]

Are the models off or will Michael even it's track o over time and follow nhc track?
Edit-Need to know if my area Jax is going to experience enough impacts to warrant extra action?

JAX is currently just outside the cone, but I will be gassing up the truck and securing the yard of loose items today.

We are on the eastside of the track, and any slight shifts eastward in the NHC path, coupled with greater intensification
does pose a risk to our community.

[StPeteMike]

The NHC and the models have struggled some with trough interactions with northward-moving storms near the Cuban coast in the past, generally erring to the west. Obviously Charley was the poster boy for this in 2004, coming in further south and east, and the same thing happened last year with Irma. In both of those cases, forecast direct hits to the Tampa Bay area were averted with this westward error. Unfortunately, if westward error is present this time around, it's going to have the opposite impact on the Tampa Bay area.

That’s my worry as well.

[northjaxpro]

Are the models off or will Michael even it's track o over time and follow nhc track?
Edit-Need to know if my area Jax is going to experience enough impacts to warrant extra action?

60% probability of TS winds in Jax as of latest advisory. 10% hurricane force. Banding winds though should be severe at times IMO given the NE Quadrant (per the latest NHC path) Those effects would begin Weds afternoon.

Regardless, my shutters on AI go up tomorrow by night fall. Loose stuff out of yard. Got water supply this AM and filled my gas cans. I don't plan to evac as we did for Mathew and Irma Atlantic storms.

Frankly I think the path is too far left at this point and I don't trifle with major storms.

Hey
Mouton.

Started my preps out here in the yard earlier along with getting water etc... Yeah we will see strong winds and heavy squalls being in the right front quadrant of the storm. Quick spin-up tornadoes are also possible, as with all landfalling tropical cyclones.

I said yesterday the farther eastward solution of the UKMET would be closer to being right and I too think the eventual track will come in farther east than the current projected NHC track. I am thinking landfall will be St. Marks-Steinhatchee-Cedar Key . Somewhere in that portion of the Big Bend region.

[Mouton]

Are the models off or will Michael even it's track o over time and follow nhc track?
Edit-Need to know if my area Jax is going to experience enough impacts to warrant extra action?

60% probability of TS winds in Jax as of latest advisory. 10% hurricane force. Banding winds though should be severe at times IMO given the NE Quadrant (per the latest NHC path) Those effects would begin Weds afternoon.

Regardless, my shutters on AI go up tomorrow by night fall. Loose stuff out of yard. Got water supply this AM and filled my gas cans. I don't plan to evac as we did for Mathew and Irma Atlantic storms.

Frankly I think the path is too far left at this point and I don't trifle with major storms.

Hey
Mouton.

Started my preps out here in the yard earlier along with getting water etc... Yeah we will see strong winds and heavy squalls being in the right front quadrant of the storm. Quick spin-up tornadoes are also possible, as with all landfalling tropical cyclones.

I said yesterday the farther eastward solution of the UKMET would be closer to being right and I too think the eventual track will come in farther east than the current projected NHC track. I am thinking landfall will be St. Marks-Steinhatchee-Cedar Key . Somewhere in that portion of the Big Bend region.

Good moves. I have been saying Cedar Key was in play since 30 hours ago. I am not backing off that. I know that runs against the models but anywhere from Panama City to it need be on high alert IMO. SE Ga coast and the Southern part of AI could see surge too due to the onshore SE winds expected IMO.

My wife and I spent a few days in Apolachicola two weeks ago. Glad not there now.

[Florabamaman]

If the current NHC track holds, what kind of conditions can be expected in the Pcola area? It looks like Michael is growing and I assume the wind field is growing as well...trying to decide if shutters are going to be necessary.

[wxman57]

Are the models off or will Michael even it's track o over time and follow nhc track?
Edit-Need to know if my area Jax is going to experience enough impacts to warrant extra action?

JAX is currently just outside the cone, but I will be gassing up the truck and securing the yard of loose items today.

We are on the eastside of the track, and any slight shifts eastward in the NHC path, coupled with greater intensification
does pose a risk to our community.

Note that the cone says nothing about potential impacts. The cone is only based on track error over the past 5 seasons. It gets smaller and smaller every year as forecasts improve, meaning TS and even H winds often extend outside the cone. I would expect 20-30 mph winds with gusts 40-45 mph in the Jacksonville area as the center of TS Michael moves rapidly across south-central Georgia.

[meriland29]

How fast is he moving, he will be near shore in less than 3 days...is that enough time to really get to a M?

[Kazmit]

How fast is he moving, he will be near shore in less than 3 days...is that enough time to really get to a M?

That's more than enough time if he starts RI'ing.

[northjaxpro]

Mouton, yeah I am extremely concerned about the potential of an extremely massive storm surge up into Apalachicola and all along the Big Bend region. This could really be a devastating event if we have a major hurricane bearing down on them.

They had 12 feet storm surge occur into Apalachee Bay during the March 1993 Superstorm which was absolutely devastating to Cedar Key, Steinhatchee and other areas along the Big Bend. I shudder to think what Michael could do in that region.