WPAC: KONG-Rey - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

[Hayabusa]

[TMT]

They've actually named this King Kong?

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BEING OBSCURED BY DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE INTENSE FEEDER BANDS,
PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 300409Z ATMS 88 GHZ IMAGE IN WHICH THE CENTER
WAS LOCATED BY FOLLOWING FEEDER BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5-
T4.5 (55-77 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 30W IS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA WITH MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 29-30 CELSIUS. TY 30W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
120 KNOTS BY TAU 48. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
(SOUTHERN OUTLIER) AND THE COAMPS-GFS (EASTERN OUTLIER), DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AS A RESULT,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AS IT
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR
AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD, PASSING NEAR OKINAWA, JAPAN BETWEEN TAU 96
AND 120. HIGH VWS AND DIMINISHED OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
WEAKEN TO 75 KTS BY TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TWO OUTLIERS,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST OVER
260 NM OF SPREAD BY TAU 120. IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND COAMPS-
GFS ARE INCLUDED, THE SPREAD INCREASES TO ALMOST 900 NM BY TAU 120.
DESPITE THE GENERALLY STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THIS CYCLE,
THIS IS THE FIRST CYCLE WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL TRACK CAME IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MEMBERS SO CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 09:55 UTC, 30 September 2018

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 30 September>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°00' (15.0°)
E137°25' (137.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°05' (16.1°)
E136°10' (136.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 1 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N17°05' (17.1°)
E134°35' (134.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N18°20' (18.3°)
E132°20' (132.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 3 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N20°30' (20.5°)
E129°25' (129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)

[1900hurricane]

Looks like Kong-rey is about to hit a stretch of quicker intensification.

[Hayabusa]

30W KONG-REY 180930 1800 15.5N 136.4E WPAC 90 954

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 816 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN BANDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT, HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS BEING OBSCURED BY DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF A PINHOLE EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION TO
ACCOUNT FOR A MINOR TILT. THIS POSITION LINED UP WELL WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 301642Z ATMS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90 KNOTS
FROM ALL 3 REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE RECENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). UPPER AND LOW LEVEL ANALYSES INDICATE THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED RI TO A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS (SUPER TYPHOON) BY TAU 36.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MINOR SPREADING IN THE ENVELOPE, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY KONG-REY 30W WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD, PASSING
APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF OKINAWA NEAR TAU 108. HIGH VWS AND
REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 75 KTS BY TAU 120.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CTCX AS THE DISTANT
OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE THAT SPREADS OUT TO
OVER 350 NM BY TAU 120. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST
LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY SHARP CTCX RECURVATURE
TOWARD JAPAN.//
NNNN

[Highteeld]

Should be close to an instantaneous T 6.5 assuming W is .5* or more.

[Highteeld]

Typhoon Kong-rey (which literally translates into Typhoon King-Kong in Spanish) is exploding right now.

[Ntxw]

Eye.

[Hayabusa]

[Highteeld]

TPPN12 PGTW 010252

A. TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY)

B. 01/0230Z

C. 15.83N

D. 135.55E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT (W) TO YIELD
A DT OF 6.0. MET 4.5. PT 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/2207Z 15.37N 136.02E SSMS


DAVIS

Damn constraints... lol

[Highteeld]

[Highteeld]

2018OCT01 031000 5.5 956.5 102.0 5.5 6.1 6.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.02 -71.23 EYE 11 IR 17.8 16.02 -135.43 ARCHER HIM-8 19.7

[Hayabusa]

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 04:05 UTC, 1 October 2018

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 1 October>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°55' (15.9°)
E135°30' (135.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 140 km (75 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Philippine Sea to Kong-Rey: " Don't you worry, I got your back"

Raw DT shooting up to 7.3
This could well end up being a Super Typhoon also.

[mrbagyo]

30W KONG-REY 181001 0600 16.1N 135.2E WPAC 110 948

[mario_zxn]

2018OCT01 091000 6.0 942.1 115.0 6.0 6.8 7.7 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -80.24 EYE 15 IR 66.2 16.57 -134.86 ARCHER HIM-8 20.5
7.7 haven't seen for so long time.