ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#801 Postby smithtim » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:33 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:That is Andrew-esque.


the setup is very similar..


On approach to SFL, Andrew made it to @26N and Ike made it to @24N. Current track has Flo up to @29N in 5 days, so one would think Florida/GOM in pretty good shape for now.


Also, Andrew moved across the atlantic as pretty much nothing untill rapidly intensifying east of Bahamas, that's why he snuck up on us as went from nothing to aghhh in like 24 hours... with flo currently at cat 4 intensity with her moving that far across should pull poleward unless something blocking that, which global models will fine tune as time goes on. Not sure I'd really take anything > 120 hours to seriously rather just be looking to see what that bigger global picture looks like!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#802 Postby smithtim » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:39 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
the setup is very similar..


On approach to SFL, Andrew made it to @26N and Ike made it to @24N. Current track has Flo up to @29N in 5 days, so one would think Florida/GOM in pretty good shape for now.


except for the UKMET and many ensembles from other models. barely make it 25 north.


Now that's a little scary, as wasn't the UK model the one that predicted Andrew to hit north Miami beach as a major cane while all of the American nhc models never intensified him???
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Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#803 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:41 pm

18z GFS slightly SW of 12z through 30 hours... 18z moving Flo a little faster...
Last edited by Blown Away on Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#804 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:41 pm

18Z GFS already slightly left (south) of the previous run through 30 hours...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#805 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:43 pm

same speed just ever so slightly south.. maybe 50 miles.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#806 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:same speed just ever so slightly south.. maybe 50 miles.

But as they say that can make all the difference
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#807 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:45 pm

18z GFS hours 00-24:
Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#808 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:46 pm

18z GFS hour 24-48:
Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#809 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:47 pm

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is the 18zGFS moving WSW at 48hrs
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#810 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:49 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is the 18zGFS moving WSW at 48hrs

Nope, the GFS is moving WSW but only for a brief moment.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#811 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:49 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is the 18zGFS moving WSW at 48hrs

260-270, I'd say.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#812 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:49 pm

southward separation is increasing at 54 hours.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#813 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:49 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is the 18zGFS moving WSW at 48hrs

Nope, the GFS is moving WSW.

Might lend some credence to the UKMET
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#814 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:50 pm

probably close to 100 miles south shift at 60 hours vs 12z. its right at 25 north moving due west..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#815 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:53 pm

24 hour trend...

Image
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#816 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:54 pm

18z GFS hour 48-72:
Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#817 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:54 pm

more stronger it get and nw will good for us will go out to see
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#818 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:56 pm

Ridge is gone for the time being...

Image
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#819 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:56 pm

starts moving wnw at 78 hours
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#820 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:58 pm

floridasun78 wrote:more stronger it get and nw will good for us will go out to see


I've often heard this repeated, so I'll ask any of the mets here, is this actually true?
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