ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[toad strangler]

But climo is not always right. No one thought we would have so many cat 5 hurricanes last year but we did... when the Euro and Nam both show a period of steady to quick deepening it catches my eye. GFS is rolling let’s see what it does.

We are talking about MAY climo. Not SEPTEMBER clomp. Gigantic difference.

It doesn’t matter, September climo doesn’t favor multiple cat 5s but it happened. Point is the models are tools and to be used as such. The Euro and NAM showing a storm that deepens quickly up until landfall, possibly sub 980mb, is worth considering as a possibility. The shear charts show an anticyclone developing providing nice outflow and reducing shear dramatically. The loop current is plenty warm at 27-29C as well. May climo says there should be 50kts of shear to rip this apart but if modeling is correct it will be very low and favor steady intensification...

I’m going with May climo and will sleep very well. Good luck my friend.

[txwatcher91]

At 42hrs GFS is already having some feedback issues and struggling to figure out where the low will form.

[Steve]

And the Icon heads the system towards Louisiana, then does a loop and goes back East into Mobile Bay? heh

Depending on stalls/loops/blocks/etc, Mobile is probably in the center of where you’d think it would end up 5 days out and it being yet to form. There’s a pretty wide stretch of coast that could see landfall. That includes a western solution. But if you had to narrow it down to about 250 miles of coast right now, I’d say Port Fourchon/Barataria Bay over toward Panama City Beach/Tindall AFB maybe over to St. George or St. Vincent. Narrowing that further, maybe Bay St. Louis to Navarre Beach. Middle of that is Mobile Bay. JMO and it’s too early to make that call. But I’m thinking an initial approach to land within the 250 and then any loop probably coming in toward the east side of the narrowed down area.

[Steve]

GFS seems to be making a beeline for PCB, somewhat disorganized and fast. Steering is breaking up to the north as a shortwave moves out.

On land at 72 hours maybe hooking a bit west at landfall?

[toad strangler]

GFS is 2013 Andrea part 2
And that screams climo

[txwatcher91]

GFS seems to be making a beeline for PCB, somewhat disorganized and fast. Steering is breaking up to the north as a shortwave moves out.

GFS seems way too fast to me. It keeps jumping the LP north every 6 hour panel.. I don’t see that happening unless shear doesn’t drop like other models show.

[Evil Jeremy]

Virtually no difference between GFS at 00z from 18z in track. Looks stronger though.

[txwatcher91]

CMC with a huge jump east by hour 66.

[Bocadude85]

CMC with a huge jump east by hour 66.

Landfall in the panhandle at 96 hours

[CrazyC83]

Could some of the strengthening be due to baroclinic factors as well? It seems with that run with the shear but the wrapping flow, that it was due to such.

[Steve]

CMC with a huge jump east by hour 66.

Also into Panama City Beach and roling up NW along the coast through Bay and Walton Counties so far.

[Alyono]

models are not letting this get underneath the upper low this cycle. That's why they are weaker. Storm remains strongly sheared

[Steve]

Could some of the strengthening be due to baroclinic factors as well? It seems with that run with the shear but the wrapping flow, that it was due to such.

I think Levi said some of the early processes are likely to be non-tropical. He has a good take on it.

[Aric Dunn]

models are not letting this get underneath the upper low this cycle. That's why they are weaker. Storm remains strongly sheared

actually the upper low never fully cuts off and for the CMC the upper low moves to the NE.. if you look at the 250 mb winds. it starts to cut off and 90l strengthens pretty good. then the upper low/trough somewhat opens and shifts to the NE over 90l effectively cutting off the divergent outflow/shear.

this happens between 66 and 78 hours..
previous runs the trough completely cuts off. that is the intensity difference in all the models thus far.

[stormlover2013]

So aric, will this be a trend now ?

[PSUHiker31]

Let's see what the Euro says

[Aric Dunn]

So aric, will this be a trend now ?

what ?

[stormlover2013]

Models shifting east ?

[Alyono]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.05.2018

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 18.9N 85.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.05.2018 24 19.1N 86.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 26.05.2018 36 20.0N 84.7W 1003 29
0000UTC 27.05.2018 48 21.6N 83.5W 1000 34
1200UTC 27.05.2018 60 26.1N 82.3W 995 43
0000UTC 28.05.2018 72 29.4N 84.0W 991 39
1200UTC 28.05.2018 84 30.2N 85.5W 993 37
0000UTC 29.05.2018 96 31.2N 84.8W 996 35
1200UTC 29.05.2018 108 33.7N 84.1W 999 24
0000UTC 30.05.2018 120 35.8N 85.6W 999 17
1200UTC 30.05.2018 132 36.4N 86.8W 999 14
0000UTC 31.05.2018 144 37.5N 86.1W 999 14

no stall on the UKMET

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z Ukmet a little more east almost scraping Ft Myers / Tampa Bay




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